Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 Pts (+100 FD)
He is over this prop in games with 28+ minutes in 15 of 21 games, and through the first three games of this series, he’s played 29, 31, and 33 minutes. His on-ball defense and athleticism has earned him good minutes and essentially jumped over Kyle Anderson considering he fits the matchup much better. He’s taken between 10-12 field goal attempts in all three games so far, with the majority of those attempts being threes. His defense has been great for forcing the Suns to play Iso ball and he is a good on ball defender, and then offensively he is a better three-point shooter than Anderson, which helps space the floor. He has been the 6th man for this series over Reid who is not needed much for this series. With 28+ minutes and taking between 8-13 field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 12 of 13 games this season.
Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 PRA (-115 BET365)
No Kawhi and without him he has dominated this line going over in 10 of 10 games this season averaging 27.1 PRA when playing at least 15 minutes. He played 23 minutes in Game 1 and has played 20+ minutes in all 11 games overall. This line looks like it was set for when everyone is healthy. When he plays 20-25 minutes this season, he’s gone over this prop in 20 of 21 games. He must step up with the Clippers having their backs against the wall. He had 19 PRA in Game 1 and look for him to put up similar numbers again in Game 4 tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic Under 21.5 PRA (-112 DK)
Nurkic has not been very impactful, and the Suns need to make desperate changes and Nurkic is the key player I have my eye on tonight for changes. He is a non-threat to shoot and not a very good scorer in the paint. This allows Rudy Gobert to just sit in the paint all day and free roam. The Suns have struggled to score in the paint, shooting the 4th lowest percentage in the restricted area and the lowest percentage in the paint (non-restricted area). Nurkic should be coming off the floor more and as it would be more beneficial to play more of a five out offense to pull Gobert away from the rim, which means having Durant or O’Neale playing the five and this will give them some of the spacing they desperately need. He’s played 30 or less minutes in two out of the three games so far and when he does that with the big three playing this season, he’s gone under this prop in 16 of 27 games. He does make a big impact rebounding, but they have been outrebounded in this series by the Timberwolves 141 to 97. He hasn’t had much of an impact the first three games and if the argument is he is needed for rebounding then that case is dead in the water looking at the rebounding numbers above. Getting Gobert out the paint should be one of the main goals tonight and to do that, Nurkic or Eubanks should not play much.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 Pts (+100 FD)
He is over this prop in games with 28+ minutes in 15 of 21 games, and through the first three games of this series, he’s played 29, 31, and 33 minutes. His on-ball defense and athleticism has earned him good minutes and essentially jumped over Kyle Anderson considering he fits the matchup much better. He’s taken between 10-12 field goal attempts in all three games so far, with the majority of those attempts being threes. His defense has been great for forcing the Suns to play Iso ball and he is a good on ball defender, and then offensively he is a better three-point shooter than Anderson, which helps space the floor. He has been the 6th man for this series over Reid who is not needed much for this series. With 28+ minutes and taking between 8-13 field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 12 of 13 games this season.
Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 PRA (-115 BET365)
No Kawhi and without him he has dominated this line going over in 10 of 10 games this season averaging 27.1 PRA when playing at least 15 minutes. He played 23 minutes in Game 1 and has played 20+ minutes in all 11 games overall. This line looks like it was set for when everyone is healthy. When he plays 20-25 minutes this season, he’s gone over this prop in 20 of 21 games. He must step up with the Clippers having their backs against the wall. He had 19 PRA in Game 1 and look for him to put up similar numbers again in Game 4 tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic Under 21.5 PRA (-112 DK)
Nurkic has not been very impactful, and the Suns need to make desperate changes and Nurkic is the key player I have my eye on tonight for changes. He is a non-threat to shoot and not a very good scorer in the paint. This allows Rudy Gobert to just sit in the paint all day and free roam. The Suns have struggled to score in the paint, shooting the 4th lowest percentage in the restricted area and the lowest percentage in the paint (non-restricted area). Nurkic should be coming off the floor more and as it would be more beneficial to play more of a five out offense to pull Gobert away from the rim, which means having Durant or O’Neale playing the five and this will give them some of the spacing they desperately need. He’s played 30 or less minutes in two out of the three games so far and when he does that with the big three playing this season, he’s gone under this prop in 16 of 27 games. He does make a big impact rebounding, but they have been outrebounded in this series by the Timberwolves 141 to 97. He hasn’t had much of an impact the first three games and if the argument is he is needed for rebounding then that case is dead in the water looking at the rebounding numbers above. Getting Gobert out the paint should be one of the main goals tonight and to do that, Nurkic or Eubanks should not play much.
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