We've spent a lot more time in recent weeks discussing model building in analysis, but for this How To article we go back to the foundation of Pine-Sports.com in a tutorial on the Explore function. The possibilities in Explore are endless, but for this edition of Pine How To, I will be showing you how to analyze First Quarter plays for NBA and NFL. The same exact concepts apply to looking at plays for 1st Period bets for NHL and First Inning bets for MLB.
As usual, start off by logging into your Free Pine Sports account on your Desktop computer and look at the pinned post on the home page. Click on the 'Explore Player & Team Stats' button and then the sport of your choice.
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Once you click into the sport section of your choice, we want to go over to 'Team Stats', then 'Visualize', and lastly 'Bar' to start are analysis. I will go through NFL first and follow it up with the same analysis for NBA so after following this step just scroll down to the one you want to learn about!
NFL - 1st Quarter ML/Spread/Total Bets
Let's take a look at some possible 1st Quarter plays for the upcoming NFL match between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens. The current lines for this game, which we will try to find some leans on, are as follows:
1st Quarter Spread
Baltimore +2.5 (-106)
Cincinnati -2.5 (-116)
1st Quarter Winner
Baltimore (+180)
Cincinnati (-225)
1st Quarter Total
Over 7.5 (+110)
Under 7.5 (-134)
Now let's start our analysis, begin by entering in the following information exactly into the Pine Explore search engine.
Query: Season == '2022-2023' and Team in ('Cincinnati', 'Baltimore')
X= Team
Y= Team - 1st Quarter, Opponent - 1st Quarter
Aggregation= Mean
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This chart tells us the average 1st quarter score for and average 1st quarter score against each team over the course of the entire season. From this, we can see that Baltimore has averaged 3.88 points for and 2.7 against in 1st quarters this season. Cincinnati has averaged 5.87 points for and 3.25 against in 1st quarters this season. Not a whole lot to take away from this yet, other than a potential play on Baltimore +2.5 1st quarter spread as they only allow 2.7 on average which makes them the 3rd lowest average in the entire league this season. Now let's switch some things around and look at this a different way.
Leave the query as it is and change the following:
X= Week
Y= (remains the same)
Aggregation= Remove any aggregation
Barmode= Stack
Group= Team
Chart Per Group Enabled
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Now we get two different charts generated, one for Cincinnati's 1st quarters for each week played this season and another one for Baltimore. Some of the things we can learn from this includes:
1) Cincinnati Games went over 7.5 1st quarter points in 10 of 16 weeks, only 3 of the last 5
2) Baltimore Games went over 7.5 1st quarter points in 5 of 17 weeks, only 3 of the last 9
3) Baltimore is 12-5 this season covering a +2.5 1st quarter spread, 9-8 winning 1st quarter
4) Cincinnati is 8-8 this season covering a -2.5 1st quarter spread, 8-8 winning 1st quarter
Based off these charts, my initial lean towards Baltimore covering a +2.5 1st quarter spread gains some confidence, and otherwise I think it's worth staying away from the other plays. If I was forced into choosing other options, i'd go with under 7.5 1st quarter points and Baltimore to win ONLY because of the value from the price. Baltimore to cover +2.5 is my only confident play from this 1st quarter analysis. Try this out on the other Wild Card games and let us know what you find!
NBA - 1st Quarter ML/Spread/Total Bets
Let's take a look at some possible 1st Quarter plays for the upcoming NBA match between the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns. The current lines for this game, which we will try to find some leans on, are as follows:
1st Quarter Spread
Denver -4.5 (-118)
Phoenix +4.5 (-104)
1st Quarter Winner
Denver (-340)
Phoenix (+260)
1st Quarter Total
Over 55.5 (-113)
Under 55.5 (-113)
Now let's start our analysis, begin by entering in the following information exactly into the Pine Explore search engine.
Query: Season == '2022-2023' and Team in ('Denver', 'Phoenix')
X= Team
Y= Team - 1st Quarter Points, Opponent - 1st Quarter Points
Aggregation= Mean
.png)
This chart tells us the average 1st quarter score for and average 1st quarter score against each team over the course of the entire season. From this, we can see that Denver has averaged 31.1 points for and 27.02 against in 1st quarters this season. Phoenix has averaged 27.05 points for and 27.76 against in 1st quarters this season. Not a lot to take away from this, however I'm leaning towards the 1st quarter Over 55.5 at first glance. Denver's 31.1 average is the 2nd highest in the entire NBA this season which, if the Suns hit their average as well, would bring us a total around the 58-59 mark.
Leave the query as it is and change the following:
X= Date
Y= (remains the same)
Aggregation= Remove any aggregation
Barmode= Stack
Group= Team
Chart Per Group Enabled
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We now have two charts generated for us, one for Denver's 1st quarter points for and against by date, and another for the Suns. We can learn a few things looking at these:
1) The Nuggets have only covered a -4.5 1st quarter spread in 7 of last 15 games
2) Nuggets Games have only exceeded 55.5 1st quarter points twice in their last 12 games
3) Phoenix is 4-6 in their last 10 games covering a +4.5 1st quarter spread
4) Phoenix games have only exceeded 55.5 points in 8 of their last 15 games, 2 for last 2.
Personally, these numbers make me want to fade all the plays for this matchup. The numbers contradict each other too much, no consistency from any of them. I don't think they're worth the risk for this matchup however try this out on some other games for tonight or tomorrow and let us know what you find!!
Reach out to THC_IPA on Discord if you have any questions and let us know what else you want to learn how to do on Pine!
We've spent a lot more time in recent weeks discussing model building in analysis, but for this How To article we go back to the foundation of Pine-Sports.com in a tutorial on the Explore function. The possibilities in Explore are endless, but for this edition of Pine How To, I will be showing you how to analyze First Quarter plays for NBA and NFL. The same exact concepts apply to looking at plays for 1st Period bets for NHL and First Inning bets for MLB.
As usual, start off by logging into your Free Pine Sports account on your Desktop computer and look at the pinned post on the home page. Click on the 'Explore Player & Team Stats' button and then the sport of your choice.
Once you click into the sport section of your choice, we want to go over to 'Team Stats', then 'Visualize', and lastly 'Bar' to start are analysis. I will go through NFL first and follow it up with the same analysis for NBA so after following this step just scroll down to the one you want to learn about!
NFL - 1st Quarter ML/Spread/Total Bets
Let's take a look at some possible 1st Quarter plays for the upcoming NFL match between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens. The current lines for this game, which we will try to find some leans on, are as follows:
1st Quarter Spread
Baltimore +2.5 (-106)
Cincinnati -2.5 (-116)
1st Quarter Winner
Baltimore (+180)
Cincinnati (-225)
1st Quarter Total
Over 7.5 (+110)
Under 7.5 (-134)
Now let's start our analysis, begin by entering in the following information exactly into the Pine Explore search engine.
Query: Season == '2022-2023' and Team in ('Cincinnati', 'Baltimore')
X= Team
Y= Team - 1st Quarter, Opponent - 1st Quarter
Aggregation= Mean
This chart tells us the average 1st quarter score for and average 1st quarter score against each team over the course of the entire season. From this, we can see that Baltimore has averaged 3.88 points for and 2.7 against in 1st quarters this season. Cincinnati has averaged 5.87 points for and 3.25 against in 1st quarters this season. Not a whole lot to take away from this yet, other than a potential play on Baltimore +2.5 1st quarter spread as they only allow 2.7 on average which makes them the 3rd lowest average in the entire league this season. Now let's switch some things around and look at this a different way.
Leave the query as it is and change the following:
.png)
X= Week
Y= (remains the same)
Aggregation= Remove any aggregation
Barmode= Stack
Group= Team
Chart Per Group Enabled
Now we get two different charts generated, one for Cincinnati's 1st quarters for each week played this season and another one for Baltimore. Some of the things we can learn from this includes:
1) Cincinnati Games went over 7.5 1st quarter points in 10 of 16 weeks, only 3 of the last 5
2) Baltimore Games went over 7.5 1st quarter points in 5 of 17 weeks, only 3 of the last 9
3) Baltimore is 12-5 this season covering a +2.5 1st quarter spread, 9-8 winning 1st quarter
4) Cincinnati is 8-8 this season covering a -2.5 1st quarter spread, 8-8 winning 1st quarter
Based off these charts, my initial lean towards Baltimore covering a +2.5 1st quarter spread gains some confidence, and otherwise I think it's worth staying away from the other plays. If I was forced into choosing other options, i'd go with under 7.5 1st quarter points and Baltimore to win ONLY because of the value from the price. Baltimore to cover +2.5 is my only confident play from this 1st quarter analysis. Try this out on the other Wild Card games and let us know what you find!
NBA - 1st Quarter ML/Spread/Total Bets
Let's take a look at some possible 1st Quarter plays for the upcoming NBA match between the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns. The current lines for this game, which we will try to find some leans on, are as follows:
1st Quarter Spread
Denver -4.5 (-118)
Phoenix +4.5 (-104)
1st Quarter Winner
Denver (-340)
Phoenix (+260)
1st Quarter Total
Over 55.5 (-113)
Under 55.5 (-113)
Now let's start our analysis, begin by entering in the following information exactly into the Pine Explore search engine.
.png)
Query: Season == '2022-2023' and Team in ('Denver', 'Phoenix')
X= Team
Y= Team - 1st Quarter Points, Opponent - 1st Quarter Points
Aggregation= Mean
This chart tells us the average 1st quarter score for and average 1st quarter score against each team over the course of the entire season. From this, we can see that Denver has averaged 31.1 points for and 27.02 against in 1st quarters this season. Phoenix has averaged 27.05 points for and 27.76 against in 1st quarters this season. Not a lot to take away from this, however I'm leaning towards the 1st quarter Over 55.5 at first glance. Denver's 31.1 average is the 2nd highest in the entire NBA this season which, if the Suns hit their average as well, would bring us a total around the 58-59 mark.
Leave the query as it is and change the following:
.png)
X= Date
Y= (remains the same)
Aggregation= Remove any aggregation
Barmode= Stack
Group= Team
Chart Per Group Enabled
We now have two charts generated for us, one for Denver's 1st quarter points for and against by date, and another for the Suns. We can learn a few things looking at these:
1) The Nuggets have only covered a -4.5 1st quarter spread in 7 of last 15 games
2) Nuggets Games have only exceeded 55.5 1st quarter points twice in their last 12 games
3) Phoenix is 4-6 in their last 10 games covering a +4.5 1st quarter spread
4) Phoenix games have only exceeded 55.5 points in 8 of their last 15 games, 2 for last 2.
Personally, these numbers make me want to fade all the plays for this matchup. The numbers contradict each other too much, no consistency from any of them. I don't think they're worth the risk for this matchup however try this out on some other games for tonight or tomorrow and let us know what you find!!
Reach out to THC_IPA on Discord if you have any questions and let us know what else you want to learn how to do on Pine!
Your Sports IQ + AI = Pine Sports