1U Draymond Green (GSW) over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105) available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Draymond Green's recent stretch of play has been his best of the season. The heart and soul of the defending champion Warriors has shifted to the center position in his last 3 outings with Jordan Poole replacing Kevon Looney in the starting unit. Even last outing against the Grizzlies when Andrew Wiggins was out the Warriors opted to start Jonathan Kuminga rather than the traditional center. With Draymond at the 5 the Warriors can play at their full pace with shooting and cutting threats surrounding the elite playmaking big. His production is skyrocketed as a result, covering this total in 6 of his last 7 games and all 3 since the lineup change (recording 22, 18, and 20 RA.) Over the last 3 games Draymond is averaging 17 potential assists and 15.7 rebound chances per game, making his likelihood of reaching this number on a consistent basis very high.
Tonight, Golden State will face the Toronto Raptors who play without a true center of their own. While Toronto has average to above average positional size at 3 of the spots on the floor, they are very undersized inside and have been struggling in the rebounding department of late. Over the last 15 games they are allowing the 7th most rebounds per game to opposing centers and the most per game to opposing power forwards. During that span they have allowed the 6th most rebounds per game overall. In the assist department Draymond should have a field day against a Raptors defense allowing the 2nd highest rate of assists per field goal made of any team. Overall, they allow the 6th most assists per game. Green is averaging 12 more passes and 2.2 more adjusted assists per game than his season average over these last 3 outings.
The Raptors take pride in limiting the production of opposing number one scorers leading to higher touch counts and usage rates for other guys on the floor. I envision Draymond with the ball in his hands a ton during this game, similar to the last 3 games where his touches have increased to 85.7 per game with 45 of those in the frontcourt and 4.3 from the elbow. Those numbers are up from his season averages of 72.9 touches with 40.1 in the frontcourt and 2.7 at the elbow. Toronto allows a ton of 3's and do so at the 2nd highest percentage. Golden state drills the most 3PM/game and do so at the 6th highest percentage. Having Curry, Thompson, and Poole spreading the floor leaves Draymond with a multitude of threats and Wiggins (if he plays) and Kuminga are excellent cutters.
With Steph likely drawing 2 defenders in the PnR and on hand-offs Draymond should see high-value touches in the short roll with a number of options to choose from. Toronto allows the 8th most transition PPG and rank just 35th percentile defending it while Golden State plays at the league's fasted pace and any additional look-ahead assists from Green would help this prop. The Raptors also experiment with zone coverage from time to time and if they are bold enough to do so against the Warriors, Draymond will feast as an orchestrator from the middle of the zone. I love this spot as the game has a spread of 5 points and a total of 235 which should lead to Draymond seeing his full complement of minutes and clear this line more often than not.
1U Draymond Green (GSW) over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105) available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Draymond Green's recent stretch of play has been his best of the season. The heart and soul of the defending champion Warriors has shifted to the center position in his last 3 outings with Jordan Poole replacing Kevon Looney in the starting unit. Even last outing against the Grizzlies when Andrew Wiggins was out the Warriors opted to start Jonathan Kuminga rather than the traditional center. With Draymond at the 5 the Warriors can play at their full pace with shooting and cutting threats surrounding the elite playmaking big. His production is skyrocketed as a result, covering this total in 6 of his last 7 games and all 3 since the lineup change (recording 22, 18, and 20 RA.) Over the last 3 games Draymond is averaging 17 potential assists and 15.7 rebound chances per game, making his likelihood of reaching this number on a consistent basis very high.
Tonight, Golden State will face the Toronto Raptors who play without a true center of their own. While Toronto has average to above average positional size at 3 of the spots on the floor, they are very undersized inside and have been struggling in the rebounding department of late. Over the last 15 games they are allowing the 7th most rebounds per game to opposing centers and the most per game to opposing power forwards. During that span they have allowed the 6th most rebounds per game overall. In the assist department Draymond should have a field day against a Raptors defense allowing the 2nd highest rate of assists per field goal made of any team. Overall, they allow the 6th most assists per game. Green is averaging 12 more passes and 2.2 more adjusted assists per game than his season average over these last 3 outings.
The Raptors take pride in limiting the production of opposing number one scorers leading to higher touch counts and usage rates for other guys on the floor. I envision Draymond with the ball in his hands a ton during this game, similar to the last 3 games where his touches have increased to 85.7 per game with 45 of those in the frontcourt and 4.3 from the elbow. Those numbers are up from his season averages of 72.9 touches with 40.1 in the frontcourt and 2.7 at the elbow. Toronto allows a ton of 3's and do so at the 2nd highest percentage. Golden state drills the most 3PM/game and do so at the 6th highest percentage. Having Curry, Thompson, and Poole spreading the floor leaves Draymond with a multitude of threats and Wiggins (if he plays) and Kuminga are excellent cutters.
With Steph likely drawing 2 defenders in the PnR and on hand-offs Draymond should see high-value touches in the short roll with a number of options to choose from. Toronto allows the 8th most transition PPG and rank just 35th percentile defending it while Golden State plays at the league's fasted pace and any additional look-ahead assists from Green would help this prop. The Raptors also experiment with zone coverage from time to time and if they are bold enough to do so against the Warriors, Draymond will feast as an orchestrator from the middle of the zone. I love this spot as the game has a spread of 5 points and a total of 235 which should lead to Draymond seeing his full complement of minutes and clear this line more often than not.
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