Jaren Jackson Jr Over 15.5 Pts
Jackson Jr has gone over this line on the road in 9/16 times this season. He has played 5 games without Steven Adams and has put up 17, 19, 19, 15, and 22 points. There is also a possibility Bane does not play either and in that case, Jackson Jr has gone over this prop in 10/16 games this season. In the last 30 days, Minnesota has given up the 5th most points inside 6 feet this season and 40% of his shots come at the rim and another 28% come short mid-range (4-14 feet range). He gets a 3.3% usage increase without Adams on the court averaging 24 points per 36 minutes. When Adams and Bane are off the floor, he is averaging 25 points per 36 minutes.
(L5 Without Steven Adams Chart This Season)
Paolo Banchero Under 19.5 Pts
Banchero has gone under in 8/13 games on the road with Wendell Carter Jr playing this season averaging 19.8 ppg. Miami is a tough matchup for him as he gets a lot of his points at the rim (34% frequency). With a 34% shot frequency at the rim, it will be tough for him to score considering Miami has the lowest defended field goals made inside 6 feet, along with the least opponent points in the paint per game. Banchero has 25% pick and roll handler frequency which is where 23% of his points come from. Miami is allowing the 9th lowest scoring frequency. The core of this defense is defending the paint and the way to beat them is through shooting, but with Banchero being a 32% three point shooter this season and only taking 4 threes a game, he will have to get lucky shooting or Miami will play down to their competition, but Miami is good on the road with a 19-9 record vs Orlando’s 6-17 record on the season. Miami still has the best defense in the paint at home and Orlando’s offensive efficiency drops to 2nd worst on the road.
(L10 Road Game Chart)
Darius Garland Under 24.5 Pts
Garland is averaging 18.3 ppg on the road compared to 25.5 ppg at home. When looking at stats without Donovan Mitchell, Garland is averaging 23.7 ppg on the road and 26.8 ppg at home. The only over on the road without Mitchell was yesterday against Houston with 26 points. But the angle I found his how his numbers drop on games with zero days rest. There were two games without Mitchell where he did not play both games on the back to back. On December 9th & 10th, he put up 18 points and the 2nd game put up 13 points, which happen to be against the Thunder. On January 20th & 21st, he put up 31 points in first game and 21 points in 2nd game. In each game with or without Mitchell in back to backs this season, his points regressed each game on the 2nd leg of the back to back. 40% of his points come from the pick and roll, while the Thunder defend it very well with a 93.1% percentile (3rd best). Since January 1st, the Thunder have allowed the least pullup threes made and 21% of Garlands shots are pullup threes. A lot of focus will be put on stopping his scoring.
Jaren Jackson Jr Over 15.5 Pts
Jackson Jr has gone over this line on the road in 9/16 times this season. He has played 5 games without Steven Adams and has put up 17, 19, 19, 15, and 22 points. There is also a possibility Bane does not play either and in that case, Jackson Jr has gone over this prop in 10/16 games this season. In the last 30 days, Minnesota has given up the 5th most points inside 6 feet this season and 40% of his shots come at the rim and another 28% come short mid-range (4-14 feet range). He gets a 3.3% usage increase without Adams on the court averaging 24 points per 36 minutes. When Adams and Bane are off the floor, he is averaging 25 points per 36 minutes.
(L5 Without Steven Adams Chart This Season)
Paolo Banchero Under 19.5 Pts
Banchero has gone under in 8/13 games on the road with Wendell Carter Jr playing this season averaging 19.8 ppg. Miami is a tough matchup for him as he gets a lot of his points at the rim (34% frequency). With a 34% shot frequency at the rim, it will be tough for him to score considering Miami has the lowest defended field goals made inside 6 feet, along with the least opponent points in the paint per game. Banchero has 25% pick and roll handler frequency which is where 23% of his points come from. Miami is allowing the 9th lowest scoring frequency. The core of this defense is defending the paint and the way to beat them is through shooting, but with Banchero being a 32% three point shooter this season and only taking 4 threes a game, he will have to get lucky shooting or Miami will play down to their competition, but Miami is good on the road with a 19-9 record vs Orlando’s 6-17 record on the season. Miami still has the best defense in the paint at home and Orlando’s offensive efficiency drops to 2nd worst on the road.
(L10 Road Game Chart)
Darius Garland Under 24.5 Pts
Garland is averaging 18.3 ppg on the road compared to 25.5 ppg at home. When looking at stats without Donovan Mitchell, Garland is averaging 23.7 ppg on the road and 26.8 ppg at home. The only over on the road without Mitchell was yesterday against Houston with 26 points. But the angle I found his how his numbers drop on games with zero days rest. There were two games without Mitchell where he did not play both games on the back to back. On December 9th & 10th, he put up 18 points and the 2nd game put up 13 points, which happen to be against the Thunder. On January 20th & 21st, he put up 31 points in first game and 21 points in 2nd game. In each game with or without Mitchell in back to backs this season, his points regressed each game on the 2nd leg of the back to back. 40% of his points come from the pick and roll, while the Thunder defend it very well with a 93.1% percentile (3rd best). Since January 1st, the Thunder have allowed the least pullup threes made and 21% of Garlands shots are pullup threes. A lot of focus will be put on stopping his scoring.
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