1U Deandre Ayton (PHX) over 19.5 points (-110) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. BetMGM and DraftKings are both still playable at -115 and -120 respectively.
This is a very advantageous spot for Suns center Deandre Ayton. The former 1st overall pick had a slow start to the season, averaging just 14.6 PPG with a 21.9% usage rate. Since then, Ayton has posted a 26.0% usage rate and averaged 19.27 PPG in his last 26 games. Even better, during this month Ayton's usage is up to 28.1%. In 4 of his last 6 games he has taken at least 16 FGA while averaging 17.5 shots per game. Last outing against Dallas he battled through an illness to score 19 points despite shooting just 6/20 from the floor with a 39.7% USG%. He played his 31 minutes and got to the foul line for 10 FTA, unfortunately missing 3 of them. Now, assumedly feeling better, Ayton should be able to take advantage of a matchup against a Spurs frontcourt that has struggled to defend talented scoring big men this season.
Ayton has already dominated San Antonio this season, scoring 25 points in just 25 minutes of playing time due to a massive blowout. Devin Booker, who once again is out tonight, played in that game and without Booker on the floor this season Ayton sees a 2.5% increase in his USG%. Phoenix will also be without Cam Payne and Landry Shamet, taking away from an already depleted offensive unit. Without those 3 players on the floor this season Ayton has registered a 29.7% usage% across a 300-minute sample size. It is worth noting that Spurs starting center Jakob Poeltl was not playing in that first matchup and is a better defender than Zach Collins, but that shouldn't matter in this spot. Over the course of the season San Antonio has allowed the 4th most PPG to opposing centers and while their numbers look better over the last 15 games or so that is due to playing a number of non-scoring big men (Steven Adams twice, Robinson/Sims/Hartenstein, Horford/Williams, Stewart/Duren, Claxton twice, Dwight Powell, Zubac.)
The Spurs are still allowing the most PITP per game this season of any team while allowing opponents to shoot 30.9 times per game from inside the restricted area. Ayton leads Phoenix in FGA from that area with 4.9 per game while connecting on 78% of those shots. In that first matchup he was 7/8 from that range. Now with Poeltl in the Spurs play more drop coverage which exposes the mid-range and the short non-restricted area of the paint where Ayton has soft touch and is one of the better mid-range shooters as a big man. In the last 15 games the Spurs are allowing opponents to shoot the 2nd most mid-range FGA while connecting on an astounding 53% of those shots. The Chris Paul and Ayton PnR is not quite at the Harden and Embiid level but is one of the league's better duos in that action and they should have a number of connections in this matchup. San Antonio also allows the 7th highest opponent offensive rebound rate and Ayton ranks 15th in offensive rebounds per game. This game has a spread of only 6 points with a total of 233, and Phoenix is just 4-7 ATS as a road favorite this season so Ayton should see his full allotment of minutes.
1U Deandre Ayton (PHX) over 19.5 points (-110) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. BetMGM and DraftKings are both still playable at -115 and -120 respectively.
This is a very advantageous spot for Suns center Deandre Ayton. The former 1st overall pick had a slow start to the season, averaging just 14.6 PPG with a 21.9% usage rate. Since then, Ayton has posted a 26.0% usage rate and averaged 19.27 PPG in his last 26 games. Even better, during this month Ayton's usage is up to 28.1%. In 4 of his last 6 games he has taken at least 16 FGA while averaging 17.5 shots per game. Last outing against Dallas he battled through an illness to score 19 points despite shooting just 6/20 from the floor with a 39.7% USG%. He played his 31 minutes and got to the foul line for 10 FTA, unfortunately missing 3 of them. Now, assumedly feeling better, Ayton should be able to take advantage of a matchup against a Spurs frontcourt that has struggled to defend talented scoring big men this season.
Ayton has already dominated San Antonio this season, scoring 25 points in just 25 minutes of playing time due to a massive blowout. Devin Booker, who once again is out tonight, played in that game and without Booker on the floor this season Ayton sees a 2.5% increase in his USG%. Phoenix will also be without Cam Payne and Landry Shamet, taking away from an already depleted offensive unit. Without those 3 players on the floor this season Ayton has registered a 29.7% usage% across a 300-minute sample size. It is worth noting that Spurs starting center Jakob Poeltl was not playing in that first matchup and is a better defender than Zach Collins, but that shouldn't matter in this spot. Over the course of the season San Antonio has allowed the 4th most PPG to opposing centers and while their numbers look better over the last 15 games or so that is due to playing a number of non-scoring big men (Steven Adams twice, Robinson/Sims/Hartenstein, Horford/Williams, Stewart/Duren, Claxton twice, Dwight Powell, Zubac.)
The Spurs are still allowing the most PITP per game this season of any team while allowing opponents to shoot 30.9 times per game from inside the restricted area. Ayton leads Phoenix in FGA from that area with 4.9 per game while connecting on 78% of those shots. In that first matchup he was 7/8 from that range. Now with Poeltl in the Spurs play more drop coverage which exposes the mid-range and the short non-restricted area of the paint where Ayton has soft touch and is one of the better mid-range shooters as a big man. In the last 15 games the Spurs are allowing opponents to shoot the 2nd most mid-range FGA while connecting on an astounding 53% of those shots. The Chris Paul and Ayton PnR is not quite at the Harden and Embiid level but is one of the league's better duos in that action and they should have a number of connections in this matchup. San Antonio also allows the 7th highest opponent offensive rebound rate and Ayton ranks 15th in offensive rebounds per game. This game has a spread of only 6 points with a total of 233, and Phoenix is just 4-7 ATS as a road favorite this season so Ayton should see his full allotment of minutes.
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