Steph Curry Over 31.5 Pts+Ast
Steph Curry in his first game back on Sunday had 6 assists on 11 potential assists against the Lakers. He made 40 passes in 32 minutes and he typically averages 51 passes per game in 34 minutes per game. They are on the road in which he averages 6.5 assists on 10.7 potential assists. He has gone over 31.5 points plus assists in 15/20 road games and if we filter for 32 minutes, we can see that he has gone over in 21/25 games this season. The Thunder are allowing the 2nd most assists, MOST points, and 3rd most points to guards since the trade deadline. He faced this Thunder team on the road January 30th where he went for 12 assists and 38 points. 30% of Curry’s assists have gone to Klay Thompson & 48 of the 76 Klay assists have been three pointers. That’s great for us considering the Thunder are allowing the 3rd most catch and shoot threes and 6th most three point defended field goals made since the trade deadline. On the season these two teams are top 3 in pace and this game has a 241 point total which means they will be running and gunning. Curry and this Warriors team have not won many on the road this season but when they have and he plays, he’s gone over in 4/5 games and the one team he went under to was the Spurs, which they have allowed the 6th fewest assists and 15th fewest points to guards since the new year. In games where the Warriors score at least 120 points (warriors have an implied point total of 123), he has gone over this prop in 13/17 games.
(L25 Games)
Cam Johnson Over 17.5 Pts (ParlayPlay)
Last game he shot 3/13 from the field, scoring 10 points. In that game he was 3/9 with field goal attempts that were considered open and wide open combined (nearest defender is 4 or more feet away is open and 6+ feet is considered wide open). He is due for a bounce back game and has the perfect matchup for it. He has gone over in 5/9 games for the Nets and when on the road has averaged 20.8 points per game going over in 3/5 games on 14.4 field goal attempts per game (averaging 15 points per game on 13 field goal attempts at home). We all know how bad the Rockets organization is but since the trade deadline, they have allowed the 6th most three pointers made to forwards and 2nd most catch & shoot threes. Kenyon Martin Jr is a horrible defender and is most likely is primary matchup and he has a 20% defensive EPM percentile. Most of the attention will probably be put on Mikal Bridges but with 14 field goal attempts, that should be plenty especially since 57% of his shots are catch & shoot threes. As a Suns player he had 15 shot attempts going 7/15 from the field and scoring 19 points and that was with Booker taking 24 field goal attempts, so I think he’ll be the 2nd guy to Bridges when they play tomorrow as well.
Terry Rozier Over 5.5 Ast
The Hornets have been very disappointing this season, but Rozier has still be pretty solid. Since the latest Ball injury (season ending) he has had 5, 6, and 4 assists. Those numbers seem very underwhelming but looking deeper into those games, he had 80, 74, and 56 passes made. Those turned into 17, 11, and 14 potential assists for an average of 70 passes per game and 14 potential assists. The only players on the season to average 70 passes per game are Haliburton and Jokic. Harden is very close at 69.4, but nevertheless, all three of those players average 10 assist per game and a minimum of 16.5 potential assists. His teammates are bricking shot after shot but they still are NBA players regardless and will eventually start to hit their shots. The Knicks are allowing the 8th most assists per game since the trade deadline. Most of his passes have gone to Hayward and Oubre, and on his passes, they have combined for 13/43 shooting from the field. Hayward has been open or wide open on 63% of his shots, while Oubre has been open or wide open on 40% of his shots.
(Passing Stats From NBA.com)
Tyus Jones Over 15.5 Pts
Has gone over this prop in 7/10 games this season averaging 19.4 points per game. on the road without Morant, he is averaging 18 points per game going over in 3/5 games. When Morant does not play, he does most of his damage being aggressive driving to the paint and pulling up. The Lakers have been awful in defending the pullup as they’ve allowed the 6th most pullup field goals made since the trade deadline. They have also allowed the 9th most points in the paint to guards. He is shooting o0ver 50% from three which is nice as well considering the Lakers are allowing guards to hit the 5th most threes per game with the 9th most three point defended field goals made. He is averaging 14 field goal attempts per game and when he played the Lakers earlier in the season, he shot 9 and 6 field goal attempts and scored 7 and 20 points in those games with Morant.
Steph Curry Over 31.5 Pts+Ast
Steph Curry in his first game back on Sunday had 6 assists on 11 potential assists against the Lakers. He made 40 passes in 32 minutes and he typically averages 51 passes per game in 34 minutes per game. They are on the road in which he averages 6.5 assists on 10.7 potential assists. He has gone over 31.5 points plus assists in 15/20 road games and if we filter for 32 minutes, we can see that he has gone over in 21/25 games this season. The Thunder are allowing the 2nd most assists, MOST points, and 3rd most points to guards since the trade deadline. He faced this Thunder team on the road January 30th where he went for 12 assists and 38 points. 30% of Curry’s assists have gone to Klay Thompson & 48 of the 76 Klay assists have been three pointers. That’s great for us considering the Thunder are allowing the 3rd most catch and shoot threes and 6th most three point defended field goals made since the trade deadline. On the season these two teams are top 3 in pace and this game has a 241 point total which means they will be running and gunning. Curry and this Warriors team have not won many on the road this season but when they have and he plays, he’s gone over in 4/5 games and the one team he went under to was the Spurs, which they have allowed the 6th fewest assists and 15th fewest points to guards since the new year. In games where the Warriors score at least 120 points (warriors have an implied point total of 123), he has gone over this prop in 13/17 games.
(L25 Games)
Cam Johnson Over 17.5 Pts (ParlayPlay)
Last game he shot 3/13 from the field, scoring 10 points. In that game he was 3/9 with field goal attempts that were considered open and wide open combined (nearest defender is 4 or more feet away is open and 6+ feet is considered wide open). He is due for a bounce back game and has the perfect matchup for it. He has gone over in 5/9 games for the Nets and when on the road has averaged 20.8 points per game going over in 3/5 games on 14.4 field goal attempts per game (averaging 15 points per game on 13 field goal attempts at home). We all know how bad the Rockets organization is but since the trade deadline, they have allowed the 6th most three pointers made to forwards and 2nd most catch & shoot threes. Kenyon Martin Jr is a horrible defender and is most likely is primary matchup and he has a 20% defensive EPM percentile. Most of the attention will probably be put on Mikal Bridges but with 14 field goal attempts, that should be plenty especially since 57% of his shots are catch & shoot threes. As a Suns player he had 15 shot attempts going 7/15 from the field and scoring 19 points and that was with Booker taking 24 field goal attempts, so I think he’ll be the 2nd guy to Bridges when they play tomorrow as well.
Terry Rozier Over 5.5 Ast
The Hornets have been very disappointing this season, but Rozier has still be pretty solid. Since the latest Ball injury (season ending) he has had 5, 6, and 4 assists. Those numbers seem very underwhelming but looking deeper into those games, he had 80, 74, and 56 passes made. Those turned into 17, 11, and 14 potential assists for an average of 70 passes per game and 14 potential assists. The only players on the season to average 70 passes per game are Haliburton and Jokic. Harden is very close at 69.4, but nevertheless, all three of those players average 10 assist per game and a minimum of 16.5 potential assists. His teammates are bricking shot after shot but they still are NBA players regardless and will eventually start to hit their shots. The Knicks are allowing the 8th most assists per game since the trade deadline. Most of his passes have gone to Hayward and Oubre, and on his passes, they have combined for 13/43 shooting from the field. Hayward has been open or wide open on 63% of his shots, while Oubre has been open or wide open on 40% of his shots.
(Passing Stats From NBA.com)
Tyus Jones Over 15.5 Pts
Has gone over this prop in 7/10 games this season averaging 19.4 points per game. on the road without Morant, he is averaging 18 points per game going over in 3/5 games. When Morant does not play, he does most of his damage being aggressive driving to the paint and pulling up. The Lakers have been awful in defending the pullup as they’ve allowed the 6th most pullup field goals made since the trade deadline. They have also allowed the 9th most points in the paint to guards. He is shooting o0ver 50% from three which is nice as well considering the Lakers are allowing guards to hit the 5th most threes per game with the 9th most three point defended field goals made. He is averaging 14 field goal attempts per game and when he played the Lakers earlier in the season, he shot 9 and 6 field goal attempts and scored 7 and 20 points in those games with Morant.
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