Kevin Huerter Over 15.5 Pts
Huerter at home is usually a good play considering in the games at home with De’Aaron Fox, he has hit the over in 16/30 games, averaging 16.9 points per game this season. Now we know Huerter is typically a catch and shoot kind of guy as that is 41% of his shot attempts and 59% of his shot attempts are threes. The Knicks are allowing the 7th most catch & shoot threes, and they are also allowing the 8th most three pointers made to guards, all since the trade deadline. Earlier in the season he had 17 points on 2/9 shooting from three against the Knicks. Fox has a tougher matchup as the Knicks are allowing the 6th least pullup field goals made this season and 48% of his shot attempts are pullup field goals. This game also has a 239.5 point total and even if it may be lower scoring like last game (finished at 211 point total) we seen he can hit this line. Sabonis can still set him up with good looks off dribble hand offs. Grimes will probably be locked in on Fox so that’ll leave Quickley on Huerter. Even with how good those guards can be, they still give up threes as the mentality of the defense leans more towards protecting the paint, as they allow the least defended field goals made inside 10 feet (where Sabonis and Fox like to score), so even more reason to lean on Huerter tonight because if you look at the opposite spectrum, the threes, we see that the Knicks are allowing the 6th most defended three point field goals made (both stats being based on the entire season to better understand their defensive mindset). In games with at least two days rest at home, he has gone over in 6/9 games (not including season opener).
Paolo Banchero Under 7 Reb
He is averaging 6.6 rebounds this season, including 6.9 rebounds at home. But when at home he has gone over 7 only 10/29 games which is not a high hit rate. Last game versus Utah in mid-January, he had only 4 rebounds on 8 potential rebounds. Wendell Carter Jr is out tonight and when he is out, his 6.9 rebound average with him goes down to 5.8 without him, and hitting the under in 15/19 games this season. Utah is allowing the 6th fewest rebounds to forwards since the trade deadline and even without Kessler two days ago, the best rebounder on the court in was Luka at 10 with the highest rebounding forward being Kleber off the bench at 7. Even Kyrie at 6 rebounds. In his last 10 games he is averaging 6 rebounds on 9.6 rebound chances. In his last two games without Carter Jr, he is averaging 4.5 rebounds on 9.5 rebound chances. Utah has a lot of players that can shoot along the perimeter so expect him to not get many high percentages rebound chances and on top of that, Utah is not a bad rebounding team themselves as they average the 2nd most rebounds per game since the trade deadline, they are just bad at allowing rebounds to centers, but Banchero isn’t a center. Also offensive rebounds are a real weakness to this team but he has a low percentage of grabbing offensive rebounds based on his season stats.
(L19 Without Wendell Carter Jr.)
Myles Turner Under 7.5 Reb
In his last 12 games with Tyrese Haliburton since he came back from injury, he had gone over this line in 7/12 games. Those 7 teams are the Magic, Bulls, Celtics, Heat, Cavs, Kings, and Lakers. Since February 1st, 4 of those 7 teams are in the top half of the league in most offensive rebounds allowed and when looking at the stats again, 4 of those 7 teams are in the top 10 in most rebound allowed to centers. Only one (maybe two) operate a lot around the perimeter and facilitate, which is Sabonis, but even in that game he got to stand a lot in the paint because Sabonis would always creep up around the free throw line when setting screens and passing, so Turner could easily retreat to protect rim. Turner is now facing the Rockets and he will have to defend Sengun who loves to stand on the perimeter and facilitate as they run the offense through him. Even in going over this line in 7/12 games since Feb 1st (with Haliburton), he is still only averaging 6.7 rebounds on 13.3 rebound chances. Since the trade deadline he has gone over this line in only 3/9 games and averaging 5.2 rebounds on 12.4 rebound chances. Sengun truly pulls him out to the three point line and he typically has an average rebound distance of 4.2 feet. In the game against Houston, he has an average rebound distance of 6.1 feet. It’s like defending Draymond Green. Houston is grabbing the 6th most rebounds since the trade deadline and allowing the 5th least rebounds & 6th least offensive rebounds per game to centers. Houston is without Kevin Porter Jr, so that means more facilitating from Sengun. Claxton had 13 rebounds last game vs Houston, but he plays so much drop coverage that he doesn’t care whether or not people pullup, so he was defending the paint by any means necessary and was able to rack up the rebounds.
(L9 since trade deadline)
Kevin Huerter Over 15.5 Pts
Huerter at home is usually a good play considering in the games at home with De’Aaron Fox, he has hit the over in 16/30 games, averaging 16.9 points per game this season. Now we know Huerter is typically a catch and shoot kind of guy as that is 41% of his shot attempts and 59% of his shot attempts are threes. The Knicks are allowing the 7th most catch & shoot threes, and they are also allowing the 8th most three pointers made to guards, all since the trade deadline. Earlier in the season he had 17 points on 2/9 shooting from three against the Knicks. Fox has a tougher matchup as the Knicks are allowing the 6th least pullup field goals made this season and 48% of his shot attempts are pullup field goals. This game also has a 239.5 point total and even if it may be lower scoring like last game (finished at 211 point total) we seen he can hit this line. Sabonis can still set him up with good looks off dribble hand offs. Grimes will probably be locked in on Fox so that’ll leave Quickley on Huerter. Even with how good those guards can be, they still give up threes as the mentality of the defense leans more towards protecting the paint, as they allow the least defended field goals made inside 10 feet (where Sabonis and Fox like to score), so even more reason to lean on Huerter tonight because if you look at the opposite spectrum, the threes, we see that the Knicks are allowing the 6th most defended three point field goals made (both stats being based on the entire season to better understand their defensive mindset). In games with at least two days rest at home, he has gone over in 6/9 games (not including season opener).
Paolo Banchero Under 7 Reb
He is averaging 6.6 rebounds this season, including 6.9 rebounds at home. But when at home he has gone over 7 only 10/29 games which is not a high hit rate. Last game versus Utah in mid-January, he had only 4 rebounds on 8 potential rebounds. Wendell Carter Jr is out tonight and when he is out, his 6.9 rebound average with him goes down to 5.8 without him, and hitting the under in 15/19 games this season. Utah is allowing the 6th fewest rebounds to forwards since the trade deadline and even without Kessler two days ago, the best rebounder on the court in was Luka at 10 with the highest rebounding forward being Kleber off the bench at 7. Even Kyrie at 6 rebounds. In his last 10 games he is averaging 6 rebounds on 9.6 rebound chances. In his last two games without Carter Jr, he is averaging 4.5 rebounds on 9.5 rebound chances. Utah has a lot of players that can shoot along the perimeter so expect him to not get many high percentages rebound chances and on top of that, Utah is not a bad rebounding team themselves as they average the 2nd most rebounds per game since the trade deadline, they are just bad at allowing rebounds to centers, but Banchero isn’t a center. Also offensive rebounds are a real weakness to this team but he has a low percentage of grabbing offensive rebounds based on his season stats.
(L19 Without Wendell Carter Jr.)
Myles Turner Under 7.5 Reb
In his last 12 games with Tyrese Haliburton since he came back from injury, he had gone over this line in 7/12 games. Those 7 teams are the Magic, Bulls, Celtics, Heat, Cavs, Kings, and Lakers. Since February 1st, 4 of those 7 teams are in the top half of the league in most offensive rebounds allowed and when looking at the stats again, 4 of those 7 teams are in the top 10 in most rebound allowed to centers. Only one (maybe two) operate a lot around the perimeter and facilitate, which is Sabonis, but even in that game he got to stand a lot in the paint because Sabonis would always creep up around the free throw line when setting screens and passing, so Turner could easily retreat to protect rim. Turner is now facing the Rockets and he will have to defend Sengun who loves to stand on the perimeter and facilitate as they run the offense through him. Even in going over this line in 7/12 games since Feb 1st (with Haliburton), he is still only averaging 6.7 rebounds on 13.3 rebound chances. Since the trade deadline he has gone over this line in only 3/9 games and averaging 5.2 rebounds on 12.4 rebound chances. Sengun truly pulls him out to the three point line and he typically has an average rebound distance of 4.2 feet. In the game against Houston, he has an average rebound distance of 6.1 feet. It’s like defending Draymond Green. Houston is grabbing the 6th most rebounds since the trade deadline and allowing the 5th least rebounds & 6th least offensive rebounds per game to centers. Houston is without Kevin Porter Jr, so that means more facilitating from Sengun. Claxton had 13 rebounds last game vs Houston, but he plays so much drop coverage that he doesn’t care whether or not people pullup, so he was defending the paint by any means necessary and was able to rack up the rebounds.
(L9 since trade deadline)
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