Trae Young Under 9.5 Ast
Before Snyder was the head coach, Young was averaging 48.9 passes with 10.1 assists on 17.2 potential assists. With Snyder now in his last 5 games, he is averaging 47 passes (2nd to Murray) with 9 assists on 15.8 potential assists. In two games vs the Wizards in the past two weeks, he has averaged 45.5 passes with 8.5 assists on 14.5 potential assists. Last game he barely got 10 assists with 13 potential if we single out the only game he went over against them which is a really high conversion rate. Since the trade deadline, the Wizards are allowing the 7th fewest opponent assists to guards and as a team the hawks are getting everyone more involved and passing the ball rather than just pick and roll spread and just have Trae dominate with the ball in his hands all the time, hence why the team assists numbers have increased from 20th to 15th now. The main thing his Trae’s potential assists have declined and, in this matchup, they have significantly declined. For him to convert 10/13 or out of 15 again is asking for a lot especially since his team can’t be expected to shoot 53% from the field and 41% from three every game as they average 48% from the field and 35% from three on the season.
Bam Adebayo Under 8 Reb
Having Kevin Love on the team has certainly cut into is rebounding chances because before Love he was averaging 9.9 rebounds on 16.8 rebound chances, but since the all star break (when Love joined the team), his numbers went down to 6.3 rebounds on 11.1 rebound chances, with Love grabbing more rebounds and having more potential rebounds than him. He has gone under this line in 6/7 games with Love, having the only over against the Hawks who allow 5th most rebounds to centers since the all star break. Losing 5 rebound chances is a huge drop. Last game they played Miami, he had 1 rebound on 5 rebound chances. Zeller and Love combined for 16 rebounds on 27 rebound chances. Since the trade deadline, we are looking at the two slowest teams in the league and wont see a ton of shots go up, hence the 212 point total for today’s game and last game finishing at a 204 point total. His average rebound distance last game was 11.8 feet, which means he was defending at the perimeter a lot and with Garland & Mitchell and even Mobley shooting a good amount of threes combined, I expect Bam to stay along the perimeter while Love stays in the paint to rebound due to the versatility of Bam being able to defend any position on the court. And because Miami is notorious for switches it means he will switch onto guards a lot and the Cavs have the 4th highest pick and roll frequency in the league.
Damian Lillard Under 38.5 Pts+Reb (ParlayPlay/ FD)
Lillard has gone under this line with Nurkic on the road in 9/14 games this season and when you filter that to losses on the road with Nurkic, we see that he has gone under this line in 6/8 games. Since February, Lillard has been a mad man averaging 37.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, but when you look at his stats on the road, he is averaging 33.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, going under on this prop still in 5/8 games. He’s only played two games with Nurkic since Feb 1st which was against Memphis (50 Pts+Reb) and against Boston (32 Pts+Reb). With Nurkic, he is averaging 30.8 points and 3.9 rebounds (35 games played) vs without him averaging 35.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game (18 games played). That game against Boston was their latest game and that was without Simons. This game has a 9 point spread favoring the 76ers, and the 76ers are 24-10 at home this season, including being 5-2 at home since Feb 1st. The 76ers are coming off two days’ rest, and in games at home with at least two days’ rest, they are 9-0 this season. In losses this season overall, he has gone under this line in 18/27 games. When looking at losses on the road in since Feb 1st, he has gone under this line in ¾ games. Since the trade deadline, the 76ers are allowing the 9th fewest points, 11th fewest threes made and 8th least points in the paint, all to guards. He played the 76ers in mid-January and had 31 points and rebounds. He was he was 2/8 on open shots but 4/13 on tight shots (nearest defender terms). They also happen to lose this game by 10. 35% of his points come from shots inside 10 feet and the 76ers are allowing the 8th fewest defended field goals made inside 10 feet. 76ers are also allowing the 6th fewest rebounds to guards this season. Melton will be defending Lillard who has a 92% defensive EPM. He was on Lillard for 7:15 matchup minutes and forced Lillard to shoot 2/11 from the field with three free throws. I expect a lot of Melton on him tonight as well.
(L25 Losses)
Michael Porter Jr Over 5 Reb
He has gone over this line both times against the Spurs this season averaging 7.5 rebounds on 12.5 rebound chances. He has gone over this line on the road in 12/19 games with Jokic, but when you look at wins on the road with Jokic, we see that he has gone over this line in 9/10 games this season. He is averaging 13 potential rebounds on the road this season and they are playing the Spurs who are already eliminated from playoff contention and clearly tanking, hence the Nuggets are 12.5 point favorites, this is a great spot to look into Porter Jr tonight. On top of that the Spurs are allowing the most rebounds to forwards since the trade deadline by far (next closest team is averaging 6 less rebounds).
(L13 Wins for 2023)
Trae Young Under 9.5 Ast
Before Snyder was the head coach, Young was averaging 48.9 passes with 10.1 assists on 17.2 potential assists. With Snyder now in his last 5 games, he is averaging 47 passes (2nd to Murray) with 9 assists on 15.8 potential assists. In two games vs the Wizards in the past two weeks, he has averaged 45.5 passes with 8.5 assists on 14.5 potential assists. Last game he barely got 10 assists with 13 potential if we single out the only game he went over against them which is a really high conversion rate. Since the trade deadline, the Wizards are allowing the 7th fewest opponent assists to guards and as a team the hawks are getting everyone more involved and passing the ball rather than just pick and roll spread and just have Trae dominate with the ball in his hands all the time, hence why the team assists numbers have increased from 20th to 15th now. The main thing his Trae’s potential assists have declined and, in this matchup, they have significantly declined. For him to convert 10/13 or out of 15 again is asking for a lot especially since his team can’t be expected to shoot 53% from the field and 41% from three every game as they average 48% from the field and 35% from three on the season.
Bam Adebayo Under 8 Reb
Having Kevin Love on the team has certainly cut into is rebounding chances because before Love he was averaging 9.9 rebounds on 16.8 rebound chances, but since the all star break (when Love joined the team), his numbers went down to 6.3 rebounds on 11.1 rebound chances, with Love grabbing more rebounds and having more potential rebounds than him. He has gone under this line in 6/7 games with Love, having the only over against the Hawks who allow 5th most rebounds to centers since the all star break. Losing 5 rebound chances is a huge drop. Last game they played Miami, he had 1 rebound on 5 rebound chances. Zeller and Love combined for 16 rebounds on 27 rebound chances. Since the trade deadline, we are looking at the two slowest teams in the league and wont see a ton of shots go up, hence the 212 point total for today’s game and last game finishing at a 204 point total. His average rebound distance last game was 11.8 feet, which means he was defending at the perimeter a lot and with Garland & Mitchell and even Mobley shooting a good amount of threes combined, I expect Bam to stay along the perimeter while Love stays in the paint to rebound due to the versatility of Bam being able to defend any position on the court. And because Miami is notorious for switches it means he will switch onto guards a lot and the Cavs have the 4th highest pick and roll frequency in the league.
Damian Lillard Under 38.5 Pts+Reb (ParlayPlay/ FD)
Lillard has gone under this line with Nurkic on the road in 9/14 games this season and when you filter that to losses on the road with Nurkic, we see that he has gone under this line in 6/8 games. Since February, Lillard has been a mad man averaging 37.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, but when you look at his stats on the road, he is averaging 33.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, going under on this prop still in 5/8 games. He’s only played two games with Nurkic since Feb 1st which was against Memphis (50 Pts+Reb) and against Boston (32 Pts+Reb). With Nurkic, he is averaging 30.8 points and 3.9 rebounds (35 games played) vs without him averaging 35.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game (18 games played). That game against Boston was their latest game and that was without Simons. This game has a 9 point spread favoring the 76ers, and the 76ers are 24-10 at home this season, including being 5-2 at home since Feb 1st. The 76ers are coming off two days’ rest, and in games at home with at least two days’ rest, they are 9-0 this season. In losses this season overall, he has gone under this line in 18/27 games. When looking at losses on the road in since Feb 1st, he has gone under this line in ¾ games. Since the trade deadline, the 76ers are allowing the 9th fewest points, 11th fewest threes made and 8th least points in the paint, all to guards. He played the 76ers in mid-January and had 31 points and rebounds. He was he was 2/8 on open shots but 4/13 on tight shots (nearest defender terms). They also happen to lose this game by 10. 35% of his points come from shots inside 10 feet and the 76ers are allowing the 8th fewest defended field goals made inside 10 feet. 76ers are also allowing the 6th fewest rebounds to guards this season. Melton will be defending Lillard who has a 92% defensive EPM. He was on Lillard for 7:15 matchup minutes and forced Lillard to shoot 2/11 from the field with three free throws. I expect a lot of Melton on him tonight as well.
(L25 Losses)
Michael Porter Jr Over 5 Reb
He has gone over this line both times against the Spurs this season averaging 7.5 rebounds on 12.5 rebound chances. He has gone over this line on the road in 12/19 games with Jokic, but when you look at wins on the road with Jokic, we see that he has gone over this line in 9/10 games this season. He is averaging 13 potential rebounds on the road this season and they are playing the Spurs who are already eliminated from playoff contention and clearly tanking, hence the Nuggets are 12.5 point favorites, this is a great spot to look into Porter Jr tonight. On top of that the Spurs are allowing the most rebounds to forwards since the trade deadline by far (next closest team is averaging 6 less rebounds).
(L13 Wins for 2023)
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