Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Ast

Jokic since the trade deadline has gone under this line in 10/13 games averaging 9.4 assists on 16 potential assists per game. On the road in that same time frame, he has gone under in 5/7 games averaging 8.7 on 13.7 potential assists. Denver and Toronto are two slow teams since the all star break and we can expect another low scoring game (221 point total last game). Jokic in the previous matchup had 9 assists on 16 potential assists, and that was in a game where he only took an 8 field goal attempts and passed 73 times. I expect a more aggressive Jokic to score tonight as they are on a 3 game losing streak, with the Grizzlies and Kings slowly creeping up behind them. In the potential that Murray is out, he is averaging 8.5 assists since the trade deadline and going under in all 4 games. He is 7/10 under without Murray overall this season.

 

(L10 Games)


Aaron Gordon Over 15.5 Pts

He is averaging 19 points per game on the road, going over in 15/23 games this season. Last game vs Toronto, he had 19 points on 7/12 shooting. Toronto is allowing the 5th most points in the paint to forwards since the all-star break and that is great for this prop considering Gordon shoots 68% of his shots inside 10 feet. If Murray is and it is similar to last games matchups Barnes will be on Murray mostly, Siakam on Porter Jr, FVV on Caldwell Pope, OG on Jokic, and Poeltl on Gordon. With his athleticism he should be able to get around Poeltl. But in the chance that Murray doesn’t play, I believe the matchups will still be similar but when Gordon plays without Murray he is averaging 24.3 points per game and over this line in 6/7 games. He is averaging 6 more field goal attempts per game without Murray this season which is huge and the usage we need.

Nick Richards Over 9.5 Reb

Since Mark Williams has been out and obviously Plumlee has been traded, he has been able to have two games where he was the main center and in both games he had 30+ minutes, which turned into and 8 rebound and 12 rebound game (last game vs Cavs). In the 8 rebound game he had 21 rebound chances and last game he had 22 potential rebounds. He will be in the same situation as last game and if he is getting 21.5 rebound chances in the last two games then 9.5 is simply too low of a line, especially considering the fact that the Cavs are allowing the 5th most rebounds per 48 minutes to centers in the last 30 days and since the all star break they have allowed the 3rd most rebounds to centers, hence his 22 rebound chances last game. Jarrett Allen (eye) is still out which makes this better for us.

Spencer Dinwiddie Over 28.5 PA

Even when he was with Dallas, he went over this line in 2/3 games on 15 field goal attempts per game and 16.3 potential assists. Since he’s been traded, he is averaging 13.6 potential assists and 14.5 field goal attempts per game. With the nets he has performed better on the road, averaging 15 potential assists and 15.3 field goal attempts. Since the all star break, the Thunder have been terrible against guards, allowing the MOST threes, MOST assists, 3rd most points, and 4th most points in the paint, all to guards. 44% of his shots have been threes with the Nets. When playing at least 30 minutes, he has gone over this line on the road in 3/5 games, averaging 31.4 points and assists. In all his games since he has been a Net this season, he’s gone over in 7/10 games with at least 30 minutes played. Since the all star break, both have played at a top 10 pace, and with a 233 point total, so this should be a high scoring fast paced game, leading to many potential assists and points scored.

Immanuel Quickley Over 24.5 PA

Since the All star break, Portland has been terrible against guards, similar to the Thunder with my Dinwiddie play, as they are allowing the 7th most threes made, 3rd most assists, 4th most points, and 3rd most points in the paint, all to guards. There is not Jalen Brunson again and without him, he is averaging 28.6 PA, going over this line in 5/8 games this season. When looking at his stats on the without Brunson, his averages go up to 33 points and assist, plus he has gone over this line in 5/6 games.

(L6 on the Road Without Brunson)