Kyle Kuzma Under 25.5 PR
He has gone under this line in 3/6 games but the overs were to the Trail Blazers, Hawks, and Pistons. But the Hawks game was without Porzingis, which is where is usage skyrockets. Today he is facing the Cavs and will have to matchup against Isaac Okoro who has a defensive EPM in the 90th percentile. The Cavs play at the slowest pace since the all-star break and Wizards play slow as well, so I am expecting a low scoring game here. On top of that, the Cavs are allowing the 3rd fewest points, 2nd least threes made, and 3rd least points in the paint to forwards since the all-star break. The Cavs are also allowing the 9th fewest catch & shoot threes made in that same time span. 44% of his points come inside 10 feet, 42% of his points are threes, and that makes it tough on him because the Cavs are allowing the 4th fewest defended field goals made inside 10 feet & 2nd fewest three point defended field goals made. He is averaging 23 PR on the road since all-star break and I and projecting him to finish around his average tonight.
Jaylen Brown Over 25.5 Pts
Brown since the all-star break is averaging 22 points per game at home, but jumps up significantly to 31 points per game on the road, and good thing for he is playing on the road. His last game about 10 days ago against Portland was at home in which he only played 25 minutes, but he is averaging 38 minutes a game since the break. Portland is allowing the 6th most threes made, 4th most points and 2nd most points in the paint to forwards since all-star break. 43% of his points are coming inside 10 feet and the Trail Blazers are allowing the 4th most defended field goals made inside 10 feet.
(L10 Games)
Tyus Jones Under 7.5 Ast
He’s had only one game in this stretch without Ja Morant where he’s gone over 7.5 Ast on the road and that was against the Clippers where he had a very efficient game where he had 12 assists on 16 potential assists. In the other three games he is averaging 5.8 assists on 13.5 potential assists. Overall, in this 6 game stretch without Morant, he’s averaging 7.3 assists on 13.7 potential assists. The spurs are allowing the 6th fewest assists to guards since the all-star break surprisingly. Only three guards have been able to manage to get over 7 assists since the all-star break were Kevin Porter Jr (12 potential) and Luka Doncic (16 potential). Both of their teams scored 140+ points. Memphis has an implied point total of 121. Memphis has put up 130+ points in three of his 6 games with the only overs of those three high scoring games being against the Clippers when he was ultra efficient and the Warriors who give up a lot of assists to guards, but also had crazy efficiency (11 assists on 11 potential assists).
(L8 On Road Without Morant)
Kevon Looney Over 10.5 Reb
In games without Draymond Green this season, he is averaging 25 minutes per game. In those games with at least 25 minutes, he’s gone over this line in 4/6 games with an average of 12 rebounds per game on 18.3 rebound chances. Without Wiggins, Green, or Wiseman on the court, he is averaging 13.8 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. And because Wiseman is gone, in the two games without Green since the deadline, he’s gone over this line both times averaging 15 rebounds on 22 rebound chances. Since the all-star break, the Hawks are allowing the 4th most rebounds and 6th most offensive rebounds to centers. 34% of Looney’s rebounds are offensive this season and with 58% of his rebounds coming from missed two point shots (35% from missed two’s), this is a great matchup for him because the Hawks have the highest two point rate this season with the 16th best two point percentage. This game has a 248 point total and with both teams being top 10 in pace since the break, there should be a lot of quick transition offensive rebounds since teams wont be set necessarily as Atlanta as the 8th worst transition defensive percentile this season. With Capela on the other side, he should be living in the paint with a great opportunity for rebound chances, especially since the Hawks two best scorers love to drive to the rim and on top of that the Hawks average the most drives per game.
Kyle Kuzma Under 25.5 PR
He has gone under this line in 3/6 games but the overs were to the Trail Blazers, Hawks, and Pistons. But the Hawks game was without Porzingis, which is where is usage skyrockets. Today he is facing the Cavs and will have to matchup against Isaac Okoro who has a defensive EPM in the 90th percentile. The Cavs play at the slowest pace since the all-star break and Wizards play slow as well, so I am expecting a low scoring game here. On top of that, the Cavs are allowing the 3rd fewest points, 2nd least threes made, and 3rd least points in the paint to forwards since the all-star break. The Cavs are also allowing the 9th fewest catch & shoot threes made in that same time span. 44% of his points come inside 10 feet, 42% of his points are threes, and that makes it tough on him because the Cavs are allowing the 4th fewest defended field goals made inside 10 feet & 2nd fewest three point defended field goals made. He is averaging 23 PR on the road since all-star break and I and projecting him to finish around his average tonight.
Jaylen Brown Over 25.5 Pts
Brown since the all-star break is averaging 22 points per game at home, but jumps up significantly to 31 points per game on the road, and good thing for he is playing on the road. His last game about 10 days ago against Portland was at home in which he only played 25 minutes, but he is averaging 38 minutes a game since the break. Portland is allowing the 6th most threes made, 4th most points and 2nd most points in the paint to forwards since all-star break. 43% of his points are coming inside 10 feet and the Trail Blazers are allowing the 4th most defended field goals made inside 10 feet.
(L10 Games)
Tyus Jones Under 7.5 Ast
He’s had only one game in this stretch without Ja Morant where he’s gone over 7.5 Ast on the road and that was against the Clippers where he had a very efficient game where he had 12 assists on 16 potential assists. In the other three games he is averaging 5.8 assists on 13.5 potential assists. Overall, in this 6 game stretch without Morant, he’s averaging 7.3 assists on 13.7 potential assists. The spurs are allowing the 6th fewest assists to guards since the all-star break surprisingly. Only three guards have been able to manage to get over 7 assists since the all-star break were Kevin Porter Jr (12 potential) and Luka Doncic (16 potential). Both of their teams scored 140+ points. Memphis has an implied point total of 121. Memphis has put up 130+ points in three of his 6 games with the only overs of those three high scoring games being against the Clippers when he was ultra efficient and the Warriors who give up a lot of assists to guards, but also had crazy efficiency (11 assists on 11 potential assists).
(L8 On Road Without Morant)
Kevon Looney Over 10.5 Reb
In games without Draymond Green this season, he is averaging 25 minutes per game. In those games with at least 25 minutes, he’s gone over this line in 4/6 games with an average of 12 rebounds per game on 18.3 rebound chances. Without Wiggins, Green, or Wiseman on the court, he is averaging 13.8 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. And because Wiseman is gone, in the two games without Green since the deadline, he’s gone over this line both times averaging 15 rebounds on 22 rebound chances. Since the all-star break, the Hawks are allowing the 4th most rebounds and 6th most offensive rebounds to centers. 34% of Looney’s rebounds are offensive this season and with 58% of his rebounds coming from missed two point shots (35% from missed two’s), this is a great matchup for him because the Hawks have the highest two point rate this season with the 16th best two point percentage. This game has a 248 point total and with both teams being top 10 in pace since the break, there should be a lot of quick transition offensive rebounds since teams wont be set necessarily as Atlanta as the 8th worst transition defensive percentile this season. With Capela on the other side, he should be living in the paint with a great opportunity for rebound chances, especially since the Hawks two best scorers love to drive to the rim and on top of that the Hawks average the most drives per game.
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