Pick #13: Montana State (+7.5) -110 on FanDuel

The Kansas State Wildcats put together a terrific regular season but much of their success came at home and they didn't look anywhere near as good on the road or at neutral sites. They now face a Montana Bobcats team that has won eight-straight games and matches up pretty well against them. 

The Wildcats do an excellent job of closing down perimeter shooters but the Bobcats rarely shoot from beyond the arc and are just 295th in the country in 3-point rate.

Instead, the Bobcats prefer to efficiently score closer to the hoop and draw fouls. They should have no trouble implementing this against a KSU team that ranks 285th in the country in free-throw attempts allowed per play. 

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats attack the rim at the third-highest frequency in the country per ShotQualityBets. However, the Bobcats have a pair of powerful big men in the paint and rank sixth in the country at defending the rim. 

Factor in Kansas State's issues with giving the ball away (299th in the country in turnover rate), plus Montana State's tendency to soak up the shot clock, and the underdogs should be able to cover this spread.