PINE March Madness: Arizona State vs. TCU
Pick #15: UNDER 141.5 (-106) on FanDuel
The TCU Horned Frogs had an up-and-down season but at times they looked like a Top-15 team in the nation. One could make the case that they're underseeded as a No. 6 seed. That’s the theme with the West Region, a loaded section of the bracket that features five teams ranked within KenPom's Top 12.
Coached by Jaimie Dixon, the Horned Frogs dealt with the absence of key players like Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, and Eddie Lampkin at points this season. This makes their resume difficult to accurately assess, as Miles is one of the best scoring guards in the Big 12 yet missed nine games and was less than 100% at points when he was on the court.
Baugh missed six games and Lampkin, a starter, is out for the NCAA Tournament and has entered the transfer portal, a significant absence considering he’s second on the team at 5.9 rebounds per game and was the only rotational player who stood above 6-foot-7. Miles and Baugh are full-go for the big dance.
The Arizona State Sun Devils soundly defeated Nevada 98-73 in the First Four on Wednesday night. The Sun Devils were red hot from distance, converting 11 of 21 shots from 3-point range, and were led by guard DJ Horne’s 20 points.
The Sun Devils are a difficult team to predict on a game-to-game basis because they don’t exactly have a cohesive offensive system. The guards play a style that resembles an AAU game, which leads to a lot of contested, ill-advised looks outside of the flow of any semblance of offensive structure. Sometimes these shots go in, but oftentimes they don't.
Just when you think the Sun Devils are hot, they tend to go ice cold again. This is supported by the trends as Hurley’s side is 13-3 to the Under in its last 16 games following a win of more than 20 points.
Arizona State ranks just 283rd in 2-point field goal shooting (48.5%), 304th in 3-point shooting (31.9%), and 285th in free-throw shooting (68.9%). The Sun Devils got hot in a 77-72 victory over USC in the Pac-12 tourney, canning 43.8% of their looks from downtown, and again in the play-in game by shooting 52.4% from behind the arc against Nevada. They take a ton of difficult shots, but when they’re falling, it’s hard to defend.
I’m going to bank on those shots not falling against a tough TCU defense. The Horned Frogs rank 21st in defensive efficiency while holding teams to just 30.4% from downtown — the 22nd-best mark nationally. ASU should be forced into difficult looks, which is hardly a trusted offensive approach against a stout defense.
When TCU has the ball, it looks to get to the paint and attack, ranking fifth in the percentage of shots taken at the rim (47.1%). The Horned Frogs will find resistance in the paint against an ASU team checking in at third nationally in FG% allowed at the rim (48.8%). Warren Washington averages 1.7 blocks per game and will be by far the tallest player on the court at 7-feet.
TCU will look to get out and run, attacking fast so that Arizona State’s rim protectors aren’t back yet to wall off the run. The Sun Devils are typically adept at slowing down opposing offenses, ranking just 286th in percentage of shots allowed in transition.
TCU is 4-0 to the Under in its last four games 4-1 to the Under in its last five neutral-site games. Although the pace could be high in this one, I think it'll be a struggle to find easy buckets. I could see this total ticking up a few points but I'm perfectly fine grabbing this number as well.
Pick #15: UNDER 141.5 (-106) on FanDuel
The TCU Horned Frogs had an up-and-down season but at times they looked like a Top-15 team in the nation. One could make the case that they're underseeded as a No. 6 seed. That’s the theme with the West Region, a loaded section of the bracket that features five teams ranked within KenPom's Top 12.
Coached by Jaimie Dixon, the Horned Frogs dealt with the absence of key players like Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, and Eddie Lampkin at points this season. This makes their resume difficult to accurately assess, as Miles is one of the best scoring guards in the Big 12 yet missed nine games and was less than 100% at points when he was on the court.
Baugh missed six games and Lampkin, a starter, is out for the NCAA Tournament and has entered the transfer portal, a significant absence considering he’s second on the team at 5.9 rebounds per game and was the only rotational player who stood above 6-foot-7. Miles and Baugh are full-go for the big dance.
The Arizona State Sun Devils soundly defeated Nevada 98-73 in the First Four on Wednesday night. The Sun Devils were red hot from distance, converting 11 of 21 shots from 3-point range, and were led by guard DJ Horne’s 20 points.
The Sun Devils are a difficult team to predict on a game-to-game basis because they don’t exactly have a cohesive offensive system. The guards play a style that resembles an AAU game, which leads to a lot of contested, ill-advised looks outside of the flow of any semblance of offensive structure. Sometimes these shots go in, but oftentimes they don't.
Just when you think the Sun Devils are hot, they tend to go ice cold again. This is supported by the trends as Hurley’s side is 13-3 to the Under in its last 16 games following a win of more than 20 points.
Arizona State ranks just 283rd in 2-point field goal shooting (48.5%), 304th in 3-point shooting (31.9%), and 285th in free-throw shooting (68.9%). The Sun Devils got hot in a 77-72 victory over USC in the Pac-12 tourney, canning 43.8% of their looks from downtown, and again in the play-in game by shooting 52.4% from behind the arc against Nevada. They take a ton of difficult shots, but when they’re falling, it’s hard to defend.
I’m going to bank on those shots not falling against a tough TCU defense. The Horned Frogs rank 21st in defensive efficiency while holding teams to just 30.4% from downtown — the 22nd-best mark nationally. ASU should be forced into difficult looks, which is hardly a trusted offensive approach against a stout defense.
When TCU has the ball, it looks to get to the paint and attack, ranking fifth in the percentage of shots taken at the rim (47.1%). The Horned Frogs will find resistance in the paint against an ASU team checking in at third nationally in FG% allowed at the rim (48.8%). Warren Washington averages 1.7 blocks per game and will be by far the tallest player on the court at 7-feet.
TCU will look to get out and run, attacking fast so that Arizona State’s rim protectors aren’t back yet to wall off the run. The Sun Devils are typically adept at slowing down opposing offenses, ranking just 286th in percentage of shots allowed in transition.
TCU is 4-0 to the Under in its last four games 4-1 to the Under in its last five neutral-site games. Although the pace could be high in this one, I think it'll be a struggle to find easy buckets. I could see this total ticking up a few points but I'm perfectly fine grabbing this number as well.
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