PINE March Madness: Arizona State vs. TCU
Pick #16: TCU (-5.5) -115 on FanDuel
Arizona St. is coming off a 25-point win over Nevada in one of the four play-in games and now it has a tough travel and scheduling spot playing just two nights later crossing two time zones. The Sun Devils are a very inconsistent team as they have solid wins Creighton, USC and Arizona but have some bad losses mixed in there as well and overall, they are 5-6 against Quad 1 teams. Arizona St. barely finished ahead of Colorado and Washington St. in the NET rankings in the Pac 12 and the Arizona loss on Thursday tells us a little more about this conference.
TCU is a dangerous team heading into the NCAA Tournament but it did get a tough draw with having to likely face Gonzaga and UCLA in the next two games should it continue on. The Horned Frogs are fully healthy, with the exception of center Eddie Lampkin, Jr. leaving the team, and are led by guards Mike Miles, Jr. and Damion Baugh with the former being a player than can take over a game when at full strength which he is at right now. TCU finished 40 spots ahead of Arizona St. in the NET rankings and this line does not reflect that.
Biggest thing for me, is I don't trust this Arizona State. Their offense is in for some major regression after making everything they threw at the rim in their win over Nevada. Sun Devils shot 70.6% on 2-pt attempts and 52.4% on 3-pt attempts in that game. Arizona State comes into this game ranked 295th in the country in 3-pt% offense and 254 in 2-pt% offense.
TCU finished 2st in the country in defensive efficiency. They defend the 3-pt shot extremely well (21st) and are good at creating chaos (22nd in TO%). I just think it all adds up to a comfortable win here by an underrated TCU team.
Give me the Horned Frogs -5!
Pick #16: TCU (-5.5) -115 on FanDuel
Arizona St. is coming off a 25-point win over Nevada in one of the four play-in games and now it has a tough travel and scheduling spot playing just two nights later crossing two time zones. The Sun Devils are a very inconsistent team as they have solid wins Creighton, USC and Arizona but have some bad losses mixed in there as well and overall, they are 5-6 against Quad 1 teams. Arizona St. barely finished ahead of Colorado and Washington St. in the NET rankings in the Pac 12 and the Arizona loss on Thursday tells us a little more about this conference.
TCU is a dangerous team heading into the NCAA Tournament but it did get a tough draw with having to likely face Gonzaga and UCLA in the next two games should it continue on. The Horned Frogs are fully healthy, with the exception of center Eddie Lampkin, Jr. leaving the team, and are led by guards Mike Miles, Jr. and Damion Baugh with the former being a player than can take over a game when at full strength which he is at right now. TCU finished 40 spots ahead of Arizona St. in the NET rankings and this line does not reflect that.
Biggest thing for me, is I don't trust this Arizona State. Their offense is in for some major regression after making everything they threw at the rim in their win over Nevada. Sun Devils shot 70.6% on 2-pt attempts and 52.4% on 3-pt attempts in that game. Arizona State comes into this game ranked 295th in the country in 3-pt% offense and 254 in 2-pt% offense.
TCU finished 2st in the country in defensive efficiency. They defend the 3-pt shot extremely well (21st) and are good at creating chaos (22nd in TO%). I just think it all adds up to a comfortable win here by an underrated TCU team.
Give me the Horned Frogs -5!
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