Pick #20. Princeton +6.5 (-110) BetMGM - NOTE: Contrarian Play


I will be giving out all the reasons you should take Mizzou here, BUT this is a Full Contrarian Play for this tournament’s Cinderella team.

Princeton might seem like a trendy team to back, but there's reason to think that the clock strikes midnight in Round 2. Not to take anything away from a gutsy win against the Wildcats, but that outcome seemed like more of a disastrous Arizona collapse combined with a Princeton side playing out of its skin. 

Keep in mind that while Princeton won the Ivy League Tournament, it arguably wasn't even the best team in its conference. Looking back at the Tigers' last six games, they lost to Yale at home, pipped Harvard by just two points, needed overtime to beat Pennsylvania at home, and were fortunate the tourney finals took place on their home floor.

On the surface, Missouri might seem like a similar matchup for Princeton as Arizona. After all, Mizzou has the ninth-best offense in the country according to KenPom, while Arizona is just one spot behind them. However, Mizzou's offense is built completely differently and the tactics that worked for Princeton on Thursday aren't going to get the job done on Saturday. 

Princeton did a good job of preventing points in transition, clogging the paint, and daring Arizona to shoot from the perimeter. The Wildcats' star big men picked up points inside but couldn't draw foul calls from the officials and their guards struggled with ice-cold shooting and turnovers. 

Don't expect that to happen on Saturday, with Mizzou featuring a guard-heavy lineup that can shoot from anywhere on the floor and has the best turnover margin (+5.9) in the country. Princeton was able to take advantage of an Arizona team that failed to score in the final four minutes of both halves, but Mizzou won't give them that same opportunity. 


But alas, Princeton will cover this spread!