Pick #22. Under 126.5 (-110) BetMGM
UCLA has been one of the best teams in the country all season and is a true contender to cut the nets down when all is said and done. Things definitely won’t be easy as the Bruins were seeded in a stacked West Region that features five separate teams ranked within KenPom’s Top 12. The path to glory will be fraught with obstacles, but Mick Cronin’s squad possesses the requisite talent and chemistry to win it all — if everything goes right.
One can argue that things already aren’t “going right” because of both the difficult region they were placed in and the fact that they are dealing with significant injuries at the worst time. Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark is out with an Achilles injury and the Bruins will miss his tremendous defensive ability (2.6 steals per game, tops in the Pac-12) and transition offense (13.0 ppg). Star big man Adem Bona was injured in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals and has not yet returned, although he was described by Thursday’s broadcast as “available to play” if needed.
Bona wasn’t needed on Thursday as the Bruins jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and never looked back, holding a double-digit lead for the rest of the game, which they would stretch to 20 with just under nine minutes left to play in the first half and hold for the majority of the game. It was a statement game that the Bruins have what it takes to win it all and didn’t even need to play their starting center — especially on a day where top seeds like Arizona, Virginia, and Houston struggled with their respective competition to varying degrees.
Bona was seen warming up on the court prior to Thursday’s game, taking jumpers and hook shots and overall looking just as his coach described him — available to play if needed. I’m thinking that Cronin determines Bona will be needed against a feisty Northwestern team that has surpassed expectations this season and managed to muddy up games, so I expect to see Bona suit up on Saturday. His defensive presence down low means everything to UCLA’s chances the deeper this tournament goes.
Northwestern advanced with a 75-67 win over Boise State led by Boo Buie’s 22 points and Chase Audige’s 20 points. The Wildcats controlled the game throughout, albeit by not a wide margin. They outshot the Broncos 49% to 40% and committed just seven turnovers in what was a somewhat impressive win.
Northwestern surpassed preseason expectations mightily. Despite being picked 12th or 13th in the Big Ten by most media experts in the preseason, the Wildcats went 12-8 in conference play to finish tied with Indiana for second place. This is coach Chris Collins’ second NCAA Tournament appearance after leading the Wildcats to the big dance in 2016-17 and bowing out in the second round to No. 1 seed Gonzaga.
Instead of targeting a side in this one for my best bet, I’ll instead look at the total. The number is set currently set at 127.5 in a game that’s projected to be a rock fight. This game should be played at a slog of a pace, as UCLA ranks 235th in adjusted tempo while Northwestern checks in at 309th.
Both of these teams derive their respective identities on the defensive end of the court, where UCLA ranks first in defensive efficiency while Northwestern checks in at 18th. Northwestern is a poor shooting team, ranking 323rd nationally from 2-point range (46.8%) and 288th from 3-point land (32.2%). Those are troublesome numbers against the nation’s best defense from an analytical perspective. The Wildcats rank 321st in non-transition field goal percentage, while the Bruins rank 20th in non-transition field goal defense. In other words, Northwestern will struggle mightily to find half-court offense.
The Bruins live within the arc offensively, ranking 20th in mid-range attempt rate and 69th in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics. Northwestern has strong numbers in both areas, ranking ninth in mid-range defense per Haslametrics while walling off the rim, allowing just the 302nd-highest percentage of shots at the rim.
Pick #22. Under 126.5 (-110) BetMGM
UCLA has been one of the best teams in the country all season and is a true contender to cut the nets down when all is said and done. Things definitely won’t be easy as the Bruins were seeded in a stacked West Region that features five separate teams ranked within KenPom’s Top 12. The path to glory will be fraught with obstacles, but Mick Cronin’s squad possesses the requisite talent and chemistry to win it all — if everything goes right.
One can argue that things already aren’t “going right” because of both the difficult region they were placed in and the fact that they are dealing with significant injuries at the worst time. Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark is out with an Achilles injury and the Bruins will miss his tremendous defensive ability (2.6 steals per game, tops in the Pac-12) and transition offense (13.0 ppg). Star big man Adem Bona was injured in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals and has not yet returned, although he was described by Thursday’s broadcast as “available to play” if needed.
Bona wasn’t needed on Thursday as the Bruins jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and never looked back, holding a double-digit lead for the rest of the game, which they would stretch to 20 with just under nine minutes left to play in the first half and hold for the majority of the game. It was a statement game that the Bruins have what it takes to win it all and didn’t even need to play their starting center — especially on a day where top seeds like Arizona, Virginia, and Houston struggled with their respective competition to varying degrees.
Bona was seen warming up on the court prior to Thursday’s game, taking jumpers and hook shots and overall looking just as his coach described him — available to play if needed. I’m thinking that Cronin determines Bona will be needed against a feisty Northwestern team that has surpassed expectations this season and managed to muddy up games, so I expect to see Bona suit up on Saturday. His defensive presence down low means everything to UCLA’s chances the deeper this tournament goes.
Northwestern advanced with a 75-67 win over Boise State led by Boo Buie’s 22 points and Chase Audige’s 20 points. The Wildcats controlled the game throughout, albeit by not a wide margin. They outshot the Broncos 49% to 40% and committed just seven turnovers in what was a somewhat impressive win.
Northwestern surpassed preseason expectations mightily. Despite being picked 12th or 13th in the Big Ten by most media experts in the preseason, the Wildcats went 12-8 in conference play to finish tied with Indiana for second place. This is coach Chris Collins’ second NCAA Tournament appearance after leading the Wildcats to the big dance in 2016-17 and bowing out in the second round to No. 1 seed Gonzaga.
Instead of targeting a side in this one for my best bet, I’ll instead look at the total. The number is set currently set at 127.5 in a game that’s projected to be a rock fight. This game should be played at a slog of a pace, as UCLA ranks 235th in adjusted tempo while Northwestern checks in at 309th.
Both of these teams derive their respective identities on the defensive end of the court, where UCLA ranks first in defensive efficiency while Northwestern checks in at 18th. Northwestern is a poor shooting team, ranking 323rd nationally from 2-point range (46.8%) and 288th from 3-point land (32.2%). Those are troublesome numbers against the nation’s best defense from an analytical perspective. The Wildcats rank 321st in non-transition field goal percentage, while the Bruins rank 20th in non-transition field goal defense. In other words, Northwestern will struggle mightily to find half-court offense.
The Bruins live within the arc offensively, ranking 20th in mid-range attempt rate and 69th in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics. Northwestern has strong numbers in both areas, ranking ninth in mid-range defense per Haslametrics while walling off the rim, allowing just the 302nd-highest percentage of shots at the rim.
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