Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Pts
Since the all star break, Shai has been averaging 34.8 points per game and the only under was against the Toronto at 29 points. The thing I like about this matchup is the pullup game because the Suns like their drop coverage and since the all star break, they are allowing the 9th most pullup field goals made and for a guy that pullups up at a 45% frequency, that is a great sign. The Suns just got torched by Markelle Fultz the other day and they have a similar playstyle in getting to the rim, but Shai is a much better player. Fultz mainly matched up with Chris Paul and I expect Paul to be on Shai today. last season against a much better Suns defense, he dropped 29 and 32 points on them and I can see a similar outing today. about a week ago, Kyrie and Luka combined for 64 points (30+ each). And they only made 4 threes combined. Shai can rack up a lot of free throws in games and with the Suns committing the 5th most fouls this season while allowing the 3rd highest, 4th highest, and 10th highest free throw frequency in Isolation, transition and to pick and roll ball handlers, he is in a great spot to draw fouls considering he draws the 5th most fouls in the league at 7.2 per game.
(L6 Games Since ASB)
Cameron Johnson Under 15.5 Pts
Since he was traded, he’s been averaging 14 ppg at home and 18.2 ppg on the road. This is going to be a tough matchup for him because he is mainly a catch & shoot three point shooter (46% frequency) and Denver is allowing the 7th fewest three point field goals made to forwards at the 5th lowest percentage. They are also allowing the 5th fewest defended three point field goals made, all since the all star break. Aaron Gordon was his primary defender last game and allowed him to score at a high rate. With how important this game is to Denver, they should be locked in today. Also, Gordon has a defensive EPM in the 95th percentile, so expect a bounce back game from him on defense. Finally, the Nuggets are allowing the 7th fewest catch and shoot threes made and he went under this line last game on the road where he performs better.
(L5 Home Games With BKN)
Aaron Gordon Under 6 Reb
He has gone under this line in 7/10 games since the all star break averaging 5.7 rebounds on 9 rebound chances per game. most of his rebounds come from missed two’s but that’ll be hard if he is forced to guard Cameron Johnson again as that was his 2nd longest matchup on defense last game. since the trade deadline, the Nets shoot the 6th most threes per game, which is not a very good spot for Gordon to get rebounds because guarding all of the perimeter shooters will pull him away from the rim where all the high efficiency rebounds are at. In this matchup a week ago, he had 4 rebounds on 8 rebound chances, which is very close but lower than his 10 game average. His longest timed matchup was against Royce O’Neale who has a three point frequency of 73%, which means more time for Gordon to be further away from the rim to get rebounds.
(L10 Games)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Pts
Since the all star break, Shai has been averaging 34.8 points per game and the only under was against the Toronto at 29 points. The thing I like about this matchup is the pullup game because the Suns like their drop coverage and since the all star break, they are allowing the 9th most pullup field goals made and for a guy that pullups up at a 45% frequency, that is a great sign. The Suns just got torched by Markelle Fultz the other day and they have a similar playstyle in getting to the rim, but Shai is a much better player. Fultz mainly matched up with Chris Paul and I expect Paul to be on Shai today. last season against a much better Suns defense, he dropped 29 and 32 points on them and I can see a similar outing today. about a week ago, Kyrie and Luka combined for 64 points (30+ each). And they only made 4 threes combined. Shai can rack up a lot of free throws in games and with the Suns committing the 5th most fouls this season while allowing the 3rd highest, 4th highest, and 10th highest free throw frequency in Isolation, transition and to pick and roll ball handlers, he is in a great spot to draw fouls considering he draws the 5th most fouls in the league at 7.2 per game.
(L6 Games Since ASB)
Cameron Johnson Under 15.5 Pts
Since he was traded, he’s been averaging 14 ppg at home and 18.2 ppg on the road. This is going to be a tough matchup for him because he is mainly a catch & shoot three point shooter (46% frequency) and Denver is allowing the 7th fewest three point field goals made to forwards at the 5th lowest percentage. They are also allowing the 5th fewest defended three point field goals made, all since the all star break. Aaron Gordon was his primary defender last game and allowed him to score at a high rate. With how important this game is to Denver, they should be locked in today. Also, Gordon has a defensive EPM in the 95th percentile, so expect a bounce back game from him on defense. Finally, the Nuggets are allowing the 7th fewest catch and shoot threes made and he went under this line last game on the road where he performs better.
(L5 Home Games With BKN)
Aaron Gordon Under 6 Reb
He has gone under this line in 7/10 games since the all star break averaging 5.7 rebounds on 9 rebound chances per game. most of his rebounds come from missed two’s but that’ll be hard if he is forced to guard Cameron Johnson again as that was his 2nd longest matchup on defense last game. since the trade deadline, the Nets shoot the 6th most threes per game, which is not a very good spot for Gordon to get rebounds because guarding all of the perimeter shooters will pull him away from the rim where all the high efficiency rebounds are at. In this matchup a week ago, he had 4 rebounds on 8 rebound chances, which is very close but lower than his 10 game average. His longest timed matchup was against Royce O’Neale who has a three point frequency of 73%, which means more time for Gordon to be further away from the rim to get rebounds.
(L10 Games)
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