Lock It In: 76ers vs. Bulls (NBA)
Pick #4: James Harden Under 19.5 Points (-115) on BetMGM
These two teams just played on Monday, with the Chicago Bulls pulling off a double overtime upset victory over the heavily-favored Philadelphia 76ers. As someone who expected the 76ers to cover, it was a shock, but a post-game autopsy produced an easy diagnosis. James Harden, who despite not making the All-Star team is having an All-NBA caliber season, turned in one of the worst games of his career.
Harden finished with five points on 2-14 from the field, and while he added 12 assists, he undermined the value of that distribution with five turnovers. On the season, Harden is at 21.4 points per game on 61% true shooting, tuning into the perfect second star and lead distributor for the 76ers, when some thought he might be washed after last season’s disappointing playoff finish.
It’s clear now that last year’s late-season drop-off was the product of a recurring hamstring injury, and that when healthy, the Beard is still one of the best in the game. Only thing is, Harden is suddenly not healthy again. Doc Rivers revealed after Monday’s game that Harden was dealing with Achilles soreness that limited his performance, and it was easy to spot in retrospect.
It’s possible that this issue has been lingering for a while now, as Harden has been having down performances for the last several games. At 19.5 Harden's points prop for Wednesday is set below his season average of 21.3 points, but Harden hasn’t managed to score 20 points or more in five of his last six games. He’s also shooting 21.4% from three and 34.9% from the field in that same span.
While Harden has earned a questionable tag for Wednesday’s game, I think there’s a good chance he suits up. Harden has faced a lot of criticism in his career for a variety of reasons (the aesthetics of his iso-heavy game, poor playoff performances, numerous trade requests, etc.) but he’s been a durable player who shuns load management as a rule.
Another reason I believe Harden will play is that, despite his poor performance, he didn’t leave Monday’s game. He racked up an astonishing 47 minutes, so if his foot injury didn’t prevent him from playing deep into two overtimes, I doubt it will see him miss Wednesday’s game.
If Harden is ultimately a late scratch, no harm no foul, but if he plays — as I’m guessing he will — he’s not going to be doing himself any favors. As we saw during the tail end of last season, despite not being a particularly fast player, Harden does rely on his burst to get his offensive game going. If he can’t get separation and beat his man, he can’t draw fouls and he can’t score at the rim. It also means he’s not going to get the necessary life on his stepback 3-point shot, leaving him mostly as an offensive decoy who is focused on racking up assists.
Pick #4: James Harden Under 19.5 Points (-115) on BetMGM
These two teams just played on Monday, with the Chicago Bulls pulling off a double overtime upset victory over the heavily-favored Philadelphia 76ers. As someone who expected the 76ers to cover, it was a shock, but a post-game autopsy produced an easy diagnosis. James Harden, who despite not making the All-Star team is having an All-NBA caliber season, turned in one of the worst games of his career.
Harden finished with five points on 2-14 from the field, and while he added 12 assists, he undermined the value of that distribution with five turnovers. On the season, Harden is at 21.4 points per game on 61% true shooting, tuning into the perfect second star and lead distributor for the 76ers, when some thought he might be washed after last season’s disappointing playoff finish.
It’s clear now that last year’s late-season drop-off was the product of a recurring hamstring injury, and that when healthy, the Beard is still one of the best in the game. Only thing is, Harden is suddenly not healthy again. Doc Rivers revealed after Monday’s game that Harden was dealing with Achilles soreness that limited his performance, and it was easy to spot in retrospect.
It’s possible that this issue has been lingering for a while now, as Harden has been having down performances for the last several games. At 19.5 Harden's points prop for Wednesday is set below his season average of 21.3 points, but Harden hasn’t managed to score 20 points or more in five of his last six games. He’s also shooting 21.4% from three and 34.9% from the field in that same span.
While Harden has earned a questionable tag for Wednesday’s game, I think there’s a good chance he suits up. Harden has faced a lot of criticism in his career for a variety of reasons (the aesthetics of his iso-heavy game, poor playoff performances, numerous trade requests, etc.) but he’s been a durable player who shuns load management as a rule.
Another reason I believe Harden will play is that, despite his poor performance, he didn’t leave Monday’s game. He racked up an astonishing 47 minutes, so if his foot injury didn’t prevent him from playing deep into two overtimes, I doubt it will see him miss Wednesday’s game.
If Harden is ultimately a late scratch, no harm no foul, but if he plays — as I’m guessing he will — he’s not going to be doing himself any favors. As we saw during the tail end of last season, despite not being a particularly fast player, Harden does rely on his burst to get his offensive game going. If he can’t get separation and beat his man, he can’t draw fouls and he can’t score at the rim. It also means he’s not going to get the necessary life on his stepback 3-point shot, leaving him mostly as an offensive decoy who is focused on racking up assists.
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