This feels like a must-play to me. This matchup is insanely good.
There's so much to this prop that makes it an amazing spot for us. Starting with the basics, Dinwiddie has hit this line in 7 out of his last 10 games. The consistency has been there throughout his tenure thus far with the Nets. But when you dive a little deeper into where those assists are going, we find that this is a dream matchup. Allow me to explain:
There's been a lot that has changed in the last 15 games for both teams here, but more-so for the Jazz. Mainly, they've all but given up on this season, really not caring about winning games at this point, which is weird to me, but that's another conversation for another time. So when analyzing these stats it's important to look at the last 15 games rather than the whole season.
That being said, the Jazz have allowed the #1 most 3 pointers made overall as a team in the last 15 games. Why is that important for Dinwiddie's assist prop though? Well, because the Nets shoot a lot of 3s. Specifically, the Nets players not named Spencer Dinwiddie have been making a lot of 3s lately. The 3 point production comes from a combination of Bridges, DFS, and Cam Johnson. So, we're expecting those players in particular to have good games vs the Jazz, who have been allowing 3s like it's their job.
The key for us, is that the three players that I mentioned above, happen to be the players who Dinwiddie is passing the ball to the most. Bridges, DFS, Cam Johnson are receiving the VAST majority of Dinwiddie's potential assist. He is passing the ball to Bridges 17.4 times per game, DFS gets 11.1 and Cam Johnson is at 10, and their 3 point production has lead to Dinwiddie's assist production as well. So, we can expect a lot of production from both Dinwiddie, as well as his 3 point shooters this game.
With that type of game script, combined with the fact that the Jazz also happen to be allowing the 8th most assists to point guards in the last 15 games, Dinwiddie has a great chance of passing his average of 10.5 assists over the last 10 games, which is already over this line of 9.5
Also, there's a ton of value in parlaying this with some long shot 3 point alternates for Bridges, Johnson, or even DFS on FanDuel. I'm talking like +800 odds for Dinwiddie + Bridges 4+ 3PM. That seems too good to be true lol
My pick: S. Dinwiddie o9.5 AST (-110) DK
Follow on Twitter for more picks! @TWBets_
This feels like a must-play to me. This matchup is insanely good.
There's so much to this prop that makes it an amazing spot for us. Starting with the basics, Dinwiddie has hit this line in 7 out of his last 10 games. The consistency has been there throughout his tenure thus far with the Nets. But when you dive a little deeper into where those assists are going, we find that this is a dream matchup. Allow me to explain:
There's been a lot that has changed in the last 15 games for both teams here, but more-so for the Jazz. Mainly, they've all but given up on this season, really not caring about winning games at this point, which is weird to me, but that's another conversation for another time. So when analyzing these stats it's important to look at the last 15 games rather than the whole season.
That being said, the Jazz have allowed the #1 most 3 pointers made overall as a team in the last 15 games. Why is that important for Dinwiddie's assist prop though? Well, because the Nets shoot a lot of 3s. Specifically, the Nets players not named Spencer Dinwiddie have been making a lot of 3s lately. The 3 point production comes from a combination of Bridges, DFS, and Cam Johnson. So, we're expecting those players in particular to have good games vs the Jazz, who have been allowing 3s like it's their job.
The key for us, is that the three players that I mentioned above, happen to be the players who Dinwiddie is passing the ball to the most. Bridges, DFS, Cam Johnson are receiving the VAST majority of Dinwiddie's potential assist. He is passing the ball to Bridges 17.4 times per game, DFS gets 11.1 and Cam Johnson is at 10, and their 3 point production has lead to Dinwiddie's assist production as well. So, we can expect a lot of production from both Dinwiddie, as well as his 3 point shooters this game.
With that type of game script, combined with the fact that the Jazz also happen to be allowing the 8th most assists to point guards in the last 15 games, Dinwiddie has a great chance of passing his average of 10.5 assists over the last 10 games, which is already over this line of 9.5
Also, there's a ton of value in parlaying this with some long shot 3 point alternates for Bridges, Johnson, or even DFS on FanDuel. I'm talking like +800 odds for Dinwiddie + Bridges 4+ 3PM. That seems too good to be true lol
My pick: S. Dinwiddie o9.5 AST (-110) DK
Follow on Twitter for more picks! @TWBets_
Let us know by commenting below 👇