Pick 5: P. Siakam o12.5 Rebounds + Assists
I've written a very in-depth article about my thoughts on Siakam's assists props before on Pine, and a lot of those same principles apply to this pick, so I'll keep this one shorter for the purposes of the Lock It In challenge.
Siakam is a high-usage playmaking big man with multiple weapons on the perimeter and inside that he can use to boost his assist numbers. FVV was not available in the matchup just 2 days ago between the Celtics and Raptors, yet Siakam still managed to put up a near triple-double, with 29 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists.
With 19 R+A in that game, this matchup coming just 2 days later is a smash spot. In fact, I actually like this spot more than the previous game. I'll explain why:
1. This is a much worse matchup for Siakam in the points department. In the game two days ago, Siakam was matched up mostly on Mike Muscala, but found a himself in several mismatches going against Malcom Brogdon. This obviously gave him plenty of opportunity to exploit the weak defender in Muscala, and the much smaller defender in Brogdon and get to the hoop with ease. Meanwhile, Robert Williams was matched up on Poeltl for most of the game.
However, Siakam will be drawing the attention of Al Horford this game, who was not available two days ago. Al Horford is a career defensive centerpiece on all teams he's played for, and has continued to be solid this year. His 111 defensive rating this year is actually a bit high by his standards, however it is much better than Muscala who sits at 113.6. Brogdon is also out today, so Siakam will not have that mismatch to exploit in zone.
2. Just because he is not scoring, does not mean he will not get his touches. He still sees the same amount of usage in games where he has tough matchups scoring-wise. This is because he is a phenomenal passer. He's especially good when he has his perimeter man FVV available, which will be the case today. Siakam draws in the defense and kicks it to his favorite target, FVV. They've been doing it all season. Siakam passes to FVV more than anyone else on the team. Additionally, the last time that FVV played the Celtics, he launched 12 shots from behind the arc. Although he only made one of them that game, we can expect a few more to drop tonight. When he's getting open catching-and-shoot looks, the ball is usually coming from Siakam.
3. He is one of the best rebounders in the league. Even though he now has Poeltl stealing boards from him, he has still managed to put up consistently incredible rebound numbers. Although we may not be able to expect the same production tonight vs Horford, it is worth noting that Siakam has put up 9+ rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games, with multiple different lineups.
4. This line is just too low, honestly. Siakam is over this 12.5 RA line in 9/L10, and has averaged 15.1 R+A in that same span. Although the Celtics don't have much to play for tonight, and are resting a few key players, they ALWAYS manage to keep the game close. The Celtics are honestly an average NBA team without Tatum and Brown, which is actually insane to me. When those guys are out, the Celtics are still a better team than the a lot of the league, and you can expect them to keep the game close once again tonight. That being said, this is also a game that the Raptors want to win as they fight for playoff position, so Siakam should see plenty of minutes tonight.
Overall, it's kind of a bad line to me. I think 12.5 is way too low, considering his production of late. I do like R+A more than Assists or Rebounds alone though.
My Pick: P. Siakam o12.5 R+A, I'd play to (-120)
Pick 5: P. Siakam o12.5 Rebounds + Assists
I've written a very in-depth article about my thoughts on Siakam's assists props before on Pine, and a lot of those same principles apply to this pick, so I'll keep this one shorter for the purposes of the Lock It In challenge.
Siakam is a high-usage playmaking big man with multiple weapons on the perimeter and inside that he can use to boost his assist numbers. FVV was not available in the matchup just 2 days ago between the Celtics and Raptors, yet Siakam still managed to put up a near triple-double, with 29 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists.
With 19 R+A in that game, this matchup coming just 2 days later is a smash spot. In fact, I actually like this spot more than the previous game. I'll explain why:
1. This is a much worse matchup for Siakam in the points department. In the game two days ago, Siakam was matched up mostly on Mike Muscala, but found a himself in several mismatches going against Malcom Brogdon. This obviously gave him plenty of opportunity to exploit the weak defender in Muscala, and the much smaller defender in Brogdon and get to the hoop with ease. Meanwhile, Robert Williams was matched up on Poeltl for most of the game.
However, Siakam will be drawing the attention of Al Horford this game, who was not available two days ago. Al Horford is a career defensive centerpiece on all teams he's played for, and has continued to be solid this year. His 111 defensive rating this year is actually a bit high by his standards, however it is much better than Muscala who sits at 113.6. Brogdon is also out today, so Siakam will not have that mismatch to exploit in zone.
2. Just because he is not scoring, does not mean he will not get his touches. He still sees the same amount of usage in games where he has tough matchups scoring-wise. This is because he is a phenomenal passer. He's especially good when he has his perimeter man FVV available, which will be the case today. Siakam draws in the defense and kicks it to his favorite target, FVV. They've been doing it all season. Siakam passes to FVV more than anyone else on the team. Additionally, the last time that FVV played the Celtics, he launched 12 shots from behind the arc. Although he only made one of them that game, we can expect a few more to drop tonight. When he's getting open catching-and-shoot looks, the ball is usually coming from Siakam.
3. He is one of the best rebounders in the league. Even though he now has Poeltl stealing boards from him, he has still managed to put up consistently incredible rebound numbers. Although we may not be able to expect the same production tonight vs Horford, it is worth noting that Siakam has put up 9+ rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games, with multiple different lineups.
4. This line is just too low, honestly. Siakam is over this 12.5 RA line in 9/L10, and has averaged 15.1 R+A in that same span. Although the Celtics don't have much to play for tonight, and are resting a few key players, they ALWAYS manage to keep the game close. The Celtics are honestly an average NBA team without Tatum and Brown, which is actually insane to me. When those guys are out, the Celtics are still a better team than the a lot of the league, and you can expect them to keep the game close once again tonight. That being said, this is also a game that the Raptors want to win as they fight for playoff position, so Siakam should see plenty of minutes tonight.
Overall, it's kind of a bad line to me. I think 12.5 is way too low, considering his production of late. I do like R+A more than Assists or Rebounds alone though.
My Pick: P. Siakam o12.5 R+A, I'd play to (-120)
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