Pick #3: Chris Sale(BOS) over 1.5 walks(-155)
Buyer beware. This one is going to tell me if it's time to bail on consistently betting over the walk line for starters going against Baltimore. If you've read my posts before you know how disciplined the Os have been at the plate this season. They lead the league in pitches/plate appearance and are third overall in free passes. But two of the last three starters kept it under and the runs haven't been coming as easily as they were in Birdland earlier in the season. They are only averaging 2.8 runs/game over their last 5. With less explosive offenses pitchers get more aggressive which leads to less walks.
Sale is in a little bit of an odd position. I usually like to go for a pitcher who got shelled in their last appearance because they tend to be more gun shy about coming over the heart of the plate. That's not Sale. He had his best outing of the season last time he took the mound, working six innings with only one ER and 11 Ks. Buuuuuuuuuut, tonight he revisits the lineup that handed him his worst outing of the young season. Sale only got through 3.0 innings against the Orioles on 4/1 and allowed seven earned before getting pulled. He gave up two walks between those nine outs to push him over his line that day. My hope is that he has a little PTSD seeing the black and orange tonight and he tries to paint the lines, instead of attacking the plate.
To close, Sale has gone over this line in every start this year. It's been close but he's gone 2, 3, 2, 2 for walks in his first four starts. If he stays under tonight, that tells me the Os are getting less disciplined and I need to start looking elsewhere for my easy money picks. If you just looks at this season, the Pine Bot agrees so, lock it in!
Pick #3: Chris Sale(BOS) over 1.5 walks(-155)
Buyer beware. This one is going to tell me if it's time to bail on consistently betting over the walk line for starters going against Baltimore. If you've read my posts before you know how disciplined the Os have been at the plate this season. They lead the league in pitches/plate appearance and are third overall in free passes. But two of the last three starters kept it under and the runs haven't been coming as easily as they were in Birdland earlier in the season. They are only averaging 2.8 runs/game over their last 5. With less explosive offenses pitchers get more aggressive which leads to less walks.
Sale is in a little bit of an odd position. I usually like to go for a pitcher who got shelled in their last appearance because they tend to be more gun shy about coming over the heart of the plate. That's not Sale. He had his best outing of the season last time he took the mound, working six innings with only one ER and 11 Ks. Buuuuuuuuuut, tonight he revisits the lineup that handed him his worst outing of the young season. Sale only got through 3.0 innings against the Orioles on 4/1 and allowed seven earned before getting pulled. He gave up two walks between those nine outs to push him over his line that day. My hope is that he has a little PTSD seeing the black and orange tonight and he tries to paint the lines, instead of attacking the plate.
To close, Sale has gone over this line in every start this year. It's been close but he's gone 2, 3, 2, 2 for walks in his first four starts. If he stays under tonight, that tells me the Os are getting less disciplined and I need to start looking elsewhere for my easy money picks. If you just looks at this season, the Pine Bot agrees so, lock it in!
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