Pick #8: Twins First 5 Inning -0.5 Run Line (-160)
Some action on the early game! A lot to factor in here. First off, Lopez has already taken the mound against KC once this year. That was a 5.1 inning, 0 ER, 2 hit, 8 K performance. Of today's starters, Lopez has the highest K/game rate outside of deGrom. He's averaging 7.8 strikeouts/game. That doesn't bode well for KC who has the second highest batting K% of any team so far this season. They strike out in 26.3% of plate appearances. Lopez didn't allow a single run to KC over the first 5 in his last start against them and I would love to see that play out again today. He got a little roughed up in his last outing against Washington but, other than that, he hasn't allowed more than 2ER in any of his starts this year. He's also a RHP and the Royals have been downright awful against rightys. They only bat .209 vs RHP compared to .243 vs LHP and their OPS vs RHP is a measly 0.574...like I said, the Royals are downright awful against rightys.
On the other side of the match-up, the Royals send Lyles to the mound. He hasn't been bad this year. He actually had a pretty good start against the Twins in his first game of the year. That said, he did allow a first inning run in that game and early MIN runs are what we need. Probably most worrisome for Lyles and KC is that he is allowing the most HRs of any of today's starting pitchers, with 7. He's giving up 2+ HR/9 and the Twins are just outside of the top 10(11th) for going yard this year. Minnesota also hits RHP better than LHP with a .241 BA and .723 OPS against right-handers.
My hope is that Lopez shuts down KC early and Lyles can't do the same to Minnesota. I haven't used the team projection feature of Pine much but, if I'm reading this right, I think the bot is projecting the Twins to win by 6, even though the line is 1.5. If they're going to win by 6, they should at least have the lead after 5. Reading the graph right or not, I'm locked in.
Pick #8: Twins First 5 Inning -0.5 Run Line (-160)
Some action on the early game! A lot to factor in here. First off, Lopez has already taken the mound against KC once this year. That was a 5.1 inning, 0 ER, 2 hit, 8 K performance. Of today's starters, Lopez has the highest K/game rate outside of deGrom. He's averaging 7.8 strikeouts/game. That doesn't bode well for KC who has the second highest batting K% of any team so far this season. They strike out in 26.3% of plate appearances. Lopez didn't allow a single run to KC over the first 5 in his last start against them and I would love to see that play out again today. He got a little roughed up in his last outing against Washington but, other than that, he hasn't allowed more than 2ER in any of his starts this year. He's also a RHP and the Royals have been downright awful against rightys. They only bat .209 vs RHP compared to .243 vs LHP and their OPS vs RHP is a measly 0.574...like I said, the Royals are downright awful against rightys.
On the other side of the match-up, the Royals send Lyles to the mound. He hasn't been bad this year. He actually had a pretty good start against the Twins in his first game of the year. That said, he did allow a first inning run in that game and early MIN runs are what we need. Probably most worrisome for Lyles and KC is that he is allowing the most HRs of any of today's starting pitchers, with 7. He's giving up 2+ HR/9 and the Twins are just outside of the top 10(11th) for going yard this year. Minnesota also hits RHP better than LHP with a .241 BA and .723 OPS against right-handers.
My hope is that Lopez shuts down KC early and Lyles can't do the same to Minnesota. I haven't used the team projection feature of Pine much but, if I'm reading this right, I think the bot is projecting the Twins to win by 6, even though the line is 1.5. If they're going to win by 6, they should at least have the lead after 5. Reading the graph right or not, I'm locked in.
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