Pick #1: Aaron Gordon u19.5 Points+Rebounds (-120 BetMGM)

Aaron Gordon's recent performance against Miami might have been flashy, but don't be fooled - the under 19.5 points and rebounds is where the smart money lies. 

Aaron Gordon has been a solid contributor for the Denver Nuggets this season, but a deeper dive into the stats reveals that taking the under on 19.5 points and rebounds for the versatile forward is a savvy move for those looking to cash in on the upcoming game against the Miami Heat.

Gordon kicked off Game 1 like a man on fire, racking up an impressive 16 points and rebounds in the first quarter alone. However, the Heat quickly adjusted their defense, and Gordon's production dropped off significantly for the remainder of the game. He ended up with just 6 points and rebounds over the next three quarters, finishing the game with a total of 22 points and rebounds. While this may seem like a solid performance, it's important to consider the context and recent trends.

For starters, let's take a look at Gordon's season-long performance. He's averaging 22.07 points and rebounds for the entire season, but those numbers are inflated by some standout games. In reality, he's been under 19.5 points and rebounds in 37 games this season, compared to 47 games where he's gone over that mark. That's not a significant difference, but it does indicate that this line is far from a slam dunk (pun intended).

Now let's consider Gordon's recent form. Over his last 20 games, he's averaging 19.9 points and rebounds, with 10 of those games seeing him go over 19.5 points and rebounds. However, over his last 10 games, that average drops to 16.9 points and rebounds, with only 2 games seeing him go over the 19.5 point threshold. In fact, just before his Game 1 performance, Gordon had been under this line in 8 of his previous 9 games.

Clearly, he's been trending downward, and recent performances are more indicative of what we can expect from him in the upcoming game against Miami. He's on the court for his defensive prowess, not his offense output.

So, what does all of this data tell us? The main takeaway is that Aaron Gordon's recent performance against the Miami Heat, while impressive, is likely an anomaly rather than a sign of things to come. The consistent downward trend in his points and rebounds output, coupled with Miami's demonstrated ability to adjust their defense and limit his production, suggests that the under 19.5 points and rebounds is a smart bet.

Of course, betting on sports is never a sure thing, and Gordon could very well have another standout game. But if you're looking for an edge and a data-driven approach to your wager, then the under 19.5 points and rebounds for Aaron Gordon is a solid play. Don't let the hype from Game 1 cloud your judgment – the numbers don't lie, and they're pointing to a more subdued performance from Gordon in the upcoming game against the Heat.