Pick #3: Adam Wainwright u17.5 outs (-125 BetMGM)
Adam Wainwright's recent struggles and the red-hot Texas Rangers lineup make the under 17.5 pitching-outs a savvy choice for tonight's showdown.
As we gear up for the highly anticipated MLB game between the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals, one key player to keep an eye on is Cardinals' right-hander Adam Wainwright. Despite his impressive career, Wainwright has been struggling to find his groove this season, and with the stats to back it up, we're picking the under for his pitching-outs at 17.5 against a formidable Rangers lineup.
First and foremost, Wainwright has yet to go over this line in any of his starts this season. In fact, he's been averaging just 15.8 pitching-outs per game, with a slightly lower average of 15.67 at home and a slightly higher average of 16.0 on the road. Simply put, he's not performing at the level we've come to expect from the seasoned pitcher.
What makes this matchup particularly concerning for Wainwright is the scorching Texas Rangers lineup. Over the past month, the Rangers have been absolutely dominating against right-handed pitchers (RHP) at home, boasting an insane weighted runs above average (wRAA) of 24.9. In addition, they've been crushing the ball with a league-leading .412 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a staggering .589 slugging percentage (SLG). It's no wonder they're leading the American League West and averaging more than six runs per game.
Wainwright's current stats only serve to emphasize why we're picking the under for his pitching-outs. With a 6.15 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 16:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K:BB) across 26.1 innings, it's clear that the veteran pitcher is struggling. If the Rangers' hot hitters continue their impressive performance, Wainwright might find it difficult to make it through even four innings tonight.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, have had their fair share of troubles lately as well. After splitting a two-game series against the Kansas City Royals, St. Louis found themselves on the wrong side of a three-game sweep by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, they'll be facing Texas left-hander Martin Perez (6-1, 4.43), who's coming off a less-than-stellar performance against the Detroit Tigers but still managed to help his team secure a 10-6 win. Perez has a history of performing well against the Cardinals, with a 1-0 record and a 4.38 ERA across 12 1/3 innings.
With all of this in mind, it's hard not to feel confident in picking the under 17.5 pitching-outs for Adam Wainwright in tonight's game against the Texas Rangers. Facing one of the best lineups in the league against RHP and struggling to find his footing this season, it seems like a bet that's grounded in solid stats and trends. Of course, anything can happen in baseball, but when it comes to making an informed decision, the under seems like the way to go. So grab your popcorn, sit back, and let's see if Wainwright can defy the odds or if the Rangers' bats will continue their reign of terror.