0.75U Andrew Abbott (CIN) over 5.5 strikeouts (+120) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -110 odds.

Andrew Abbott, the Reds' 6th ranked prospect in their deep and talented farm system, will make his MLB debut this evening against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 2021 2nd-round pick just turned 24 years of age 4 days ago. In 91 innings at AA Chattanooga last season, Abbott recorded 119 strikeouts. He began the year in AA again, but after 36 strikeouts in only 15.2 IP (yes, 36 of 47 outs made were on a 3rd strike) the left-hander was sent up to AAA Louisville. It is worth noting that the AA balls are different (of course, ha) and he admitted that the extra grip resulted in more movement on his fastball. While that may have boosted his stats to an otherworldly level, he is still a supremely talented arm.

In 38.1 IP across 7 AAA starts Abbott racked up 54 more strikeouts. He tossed at least 5 innings in each start while reaching as many as 97 pitches on 2 separate occasions. 7 innings in his last start were the most of his season. He recorded 8 strikeouts in that most recent outing, and his lowest strikeout total of the season was 5. Abbott has 7 or more in 9 of 10 minor league outings this season between both levels, and 8 or more in 8 of those games. 

He draws an extremely favorable matchup to make his MLB debut in as well. The Milwaukee Brewers are coming to town and bringing their league high 29.3% K% vs southpaw pitching. Milwaukee ranks 30th in wOBA, 27th in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 74 against those left-handers across a sample of 557 PA. They take a ton of looking strikes, ranking as the 6th highest looking strike rate and having taken the 5th most looking strikeouts. When they do swing, they are also poor at connecting in the zone with the 3rd worst in zone contact rate. Their 29.2% CSW% ranks 2nd worst in MLB behind only the putrid Oakland Athletics.

Abbott utilizes a 4-pitch arsenal. His 4-seam fastball only sits around 93 MPH but he elevates the ball in the zone extremely well and with fantastic carry. That pitch pairs and tunnels perfectly with his curveball which travels along the same flight path before falling out of the zone. The curveball is a pitch he feels more than comfortable utilizing against batters of either handedness and it is his preferred secondary offering. At the end of last season Abbott added a slider that has sweeping action across the zone and adds another dimension to his profile. His changeup is working the opposite way from his slider and is a lethal weapon against right-handed batters specifically. 

Milwaukee has the 4th highest K% vs changeups, the 5th highest vs both curveballs and 4-seamers, and the 9th highest vs sliders. In RV/100 they rank 18th, 19th, 25th and 25th against those respective pitches. The Brewers have faced 20 left-handed starting pitchers this season. 3 of them were openers. Excluding those 3 pitchers (6 Ks in 4 combined IP FWIW), 14 of the other 17 left-handed pitchers have recorded at least 6 strikeouts. That includes low K% arms such as Marco Gonzales (9), Jordan Montgomery (9 and 7), Matthew Boyd (8), Tyler Anderson (7), Jose Suarez (6), and Brandon Williamson (6.)

The worries with this play are still valid. Abbott can lose control at times and run his pitch count up with long counts that end in a walk. Too many of those would be a detriment to a 5.5 line in a debut. Milwaukee is also a team that will walk if you can't locate, due to the aforementioned low swing rate. Abbott has also allowed a sizable barrel rate, and 8 balls left the park in his 7 AAA starts. Pitching in Great American Ballpark is never an easy task, and it could take him some time to get used to his new home park. All of this being said, Milwaukee is a fantastic target for this talented young arm, and I am more than willing to take a stab on a successful debut. Below is the graph of recent games from Brian Anderson, just one of many targets littered throughout this Milwaukee lineup (worth noting he didn't strikeout on the 4th in that graph because he didn't even play.)