Lock it in: Why Over 1.5 Bases on Balls is the Play for Today's Pirates vs. A's
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#pick number 3 James Ksprielian over 1.5 walks allowed (-175 DraftKings)
James Kaprielian's recent trend of allowing more bases on balls makes taking the over on 1.5 a smart move in today's Pittsburgh vs. Oakland matchup.
When it comes to analyzing player performance and making informed bets, sometimes you have to dig deep into the numbers. Today, we're taking a closer look at Oakland A's starting pitcher James Kaprielian, who's been showing a consistent increase in the number of bases on balls he's allowing this season. This is precisely why taking the over on 1.5 bases on balls for Kaprielian in the upcoming game against the Pittsburgh Pirates makes a lot of sense.
Before we dive into the specifics, let's get a better understanding of Kaprielian's overall performance this season. He's averaging 2.2 bases on balls per game, with a slightly lower average of 2.17 at home and a marginally higher average of 2.25 on the road. So far this season, he's had more than 1.5 bases on balls in 6 games and less than 1.5 in 4 games. These numbers might not seem too alarming at first glance, but a deeper dive reveals a trend that should pique the interest of savvy bettors.
Over the last 20 games, Kaprielian has maintained his season-long average of 2.2 bases on balls per game, with more than 1.5 bases on balls in 6 of those contests. However, if we narrow our focus to his last 10 games, we see that he's still averaging 2.2 bases on balls per game but has allowed more than 1.5 bases on balls in 6 games. This indicates an uptick in his tendency to walk batters, which becomes even more apparent when we examine his performance over his last 5 games.
In those 5 games, Kaprielian's bases on balls average has dropped slightly to 2.0 per game, but he's still given up more than 1.5 bases on balls in 3 of those matchups. The most telling part of this analysis, however, is the fact that over his last 10 games, Kaprielian is trending down in his ability to limit walks, and this trend continues when looking at his last 5 games. This pattern suggests that Kaprielian may be struggling with his control, which could lead to more bases on balls allowed in his upcoming start against the Pirates.
Now that we've established the trend, let's consider the specific matchup with Pittsburgh. While the Pirates aren't known for their explosive offense, they do have players who can work counts and draw walks. This could present a challenge for Kaprielian, who's already shown an increasing tendency to walk batters. With the over/under line for bases on balls set at 1.5, it's not a stretch to think that Kaprielian will allow at least two walks in this game, given his recent performances.
The numbers don't lie: James Kaprielian's recent trend of allowing more bases on balls, combined with the upcoming matchup against a patient Pirates lineup, makes taking the over on 1.5 bases on balls a wise play for today's game. As always, there are no guarantees in sports betting, but this particular bet is backed by data-driven analysis that points to a higher probability of success. So, grab your popcorn and get ready for a showdown between the Pirates and A's – and keep an eye on Kaprielian's walk count as the game unfolds.
#pick number 3 James Ksprielian over 1.5 walks allowed (-175 DraftKings)
James Kaprielian's recent trend of allowing more bases on balls makes taking the over on 1.5 a smart move in today's Pittsburgh vs. Oakland matchup.
When it comes to analyzing player performance and making informed bets, sometimes you have to dig deep into the numbers. Today, we're taking a closer look at Oakland A's starting pitcher James Kaprielian, who's been showing a consistent increase in the number of bases on balls he's allowing this season. This is precisely why taking the over on 1.5 bases on balls for Kaprielian in the upcoming game against the Pittsburgh Pirates makes a lot of sense.
Before we dive into the specifics, let's get a better understanding of Kaprielian's overall performance this season. He's averaging 2.2 bases on balls per game, with a slightly lower average of 2.17 at home and a marginally higher average of 2.25 on the road. So far this season, he's had more than 1.5 bases on balls in 6 games and less than 1.5 in 4 games. These numbers might not seem too alarming at first glance, but a deeper dive reveals a trend that should pique the interest of savvy bettors.
Over the last 20 games, Kaprielian has maintained his season-long average of 2.2 bases on balls per game, with more than 1.5 bases on balls in 6 of those contests. However, if we narrow our focus to his last 10 games, we see that he's still averaging 2.2 bases on balls per game but has allowed more than 1.5 bases on balls in 6 games. This indicates an uptick in his tendency to walk batters, which becomes even more apparent when we examine his performance over his last 5 games.
In those 5 games, Kaprielian's bases on balls average has dropped slightly to 2.0 per game, but he's still given up more than 1.5 bases on balls in 3 of those matchups. The most telling part of this analysis, however, is the fact that over his last 10 games, Kaprielian is trending down in his ability to limit walks, and this trend continues when looking at his last 5 games. This pattern suggests that Kaprielian may be struggling with his control, which could lead to more bases on balls allowed in his upcoming start against the Pirates.
Now that we've established the trend, let's consider the specific matchup with Pittsburgh. While the Pirates aren't known for their explosive offense, they do have players who can work counts and draw walks. This could present a challenge for Kaprielian, who's already shown an increasing tendency to walk batters. With the over/under line for bases on balls set at 1.5, it's not a stretch to think that Kaprielian will allow at least two walks in this game, given his recent performances.
The numbers don't lie: James Kaprielian's recent trend of allowing more bases on balls, combined with the upcoming matchup against a patient Pirates lineup, makes taking the over on 1.5 bases on balls a wise play for today's game. As always, there are no guarantees in sports betting, but this particular bet is backed by data-driven analysis that points to a higher probability of success. So, grab your popcorn and get ready for a showdown between the Pirates and A's – and keep an eye on Kaprielian's walk count as the game unfolds.
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