Despite Jamal Murray's recent hot streak, I’m taking the under on his 30.5 points and rebounds line for the upcoming Miami-Denver NBA Finals clash.
Ya boy JP is about to dive deep into some stats and trends that'll have you all questioning the Jamal Murray hype train. While the Denver Nuggets star has been on fire recently, I’m here to tell you why taking the under on his 30.5 points and rebounds line for game 3 against the Miami Heat is the smart move.
First and foremost the absolute biggest trend that jumps out at me is this. Jamal Murray has gone under 30.5 points and rebounds in the last 20 straight road games as a favorite! He’s averaged 22.7 points and rebounds in those past 20 straight games as a road favorite. He hasn’t even been close to exceeding that 30.5 line. You just can’t ignore that! It just smacks you right in the face and begs you to pay attention to it. That’s how we’re starting things out here right off the bat!
Now let's check out the home vs. road splits for Murray. This season, he's averaging 26.43 points and rebounds per game at home, while that number dips to 24.72 on the road. With the series shifting to Miami, it's worth noting that Murray's performance tends to dip when he's away from the friendly confines of Ball Arena. Over the course of the entire season, he's had more than 30.5 points and rebounds in just 22 games, while coming up short in 60 games. These numbers I’m laying out for you don't lie.
Now let's talk about Murray's history against the Miami Heat. In three games against them this season, he's only averaging 23.33 points and rebounds. Miami's defense has been solid throughout the playoffs, and they've shown resilience in coming back from deficits, like their Game 2 win where they stormed back with a 36-point fourth quarter. The Heat's ability to lock in defensively could make things tough for Murray, especially considering his history against them.
Let's also not forget about the other weapons the Nuggets have at their disposal, most importantly Nikola Jokic, who's been an absolute beast in the playoffs, averaging a triple-double and racking up the most triple-doubles ever in a single playoff run. With Jokic playing at such a high level, the Nuggets may not need to lean as heavily on Murray, which could impact his stats. That was definitely evident in game 2 with Jokic having a game high 52 points and rebounds and Murray only having 22 points and rebounds.
The Heat's 3-point shooting has also been a major factor in their playoff success, hitting 39.2% from beyond the arc and having six different players make at least two 3-pointers in Game 2. If Miami continues to light it up from downtown, it could put pressure on Denver to keep pace and force them to spread the ball around more. This could lead to Murray getting fewer looks and ultimately finishing with fewer points and rebounds than the 30.5 line.
Finally, let's talk about the overall context of this series. With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, both teams will be looking to make adjustments and exploit each other's weaknesses. The chess match between coaches and players could lead to more balanced scoring efforts and a focus on team basketball, which could potentially limit Murray's individual production.
So there you have it. I’m taking the under on Murray’s 30.5 points and rebounds line for the upcoming NBA finals game against the Miami Heat. I believe that the combination of Murray's road struggles, his history against the Heat, the law of averages, and the context and momentum of this series all point towards him coming up just short of that mark. Let’s lock this in and CASH OUT!
Pick: Jamal Murray Under 30.5 Pts+Reb (-120)
JP👊🏾🤑
Despite Jamal Murray's recent hot streak, I’m taking the under on his 30.5 points and rebounds line for the upcoming Miami-Denver NBA Finals clash.
Ya boy JP is about to dive deep into some stats and trends that'll have you all questioning the Jamal Murray hype train. While the Denver Nuggets star has been on fire recently, I’m here to tell you why taking the under on his 30.5 points and rebounds line for game 3 against the Miami Heat is the smart move.
First and foremost the absolute biggest trend that jumps out at me is this. Jamal Murray has gone under 30.5 points and rebounds in the last 20 straight road games as a favorite! He’s averaged 22.7 points and rebounds in those past 20 straight games as a road favorite. He hasn’t even been close to exceeding that 30.5 line. You just can’t ignore that! It just smacks you right in the face and begs you to pay attention to it. That’s how we’re starting things out here right off the bat!
Now let's check out the home vs. road splits for Murray. This season, he's averaging 26.43 points and rebounds per game at home, while that number dips to 24.72 on the road. With the series shifting to Miami, it's worth noting that Murray's performance tends to dip when he's away from the friendly confines of Ball Arena. Over the course of the entire season, he's had more than 30.5 points and rebounds in just 22 games, while coming up short in 60 games. These numbers I’m laying out for you don't lie.
Now let's talk about Murray's history against the Miami Heat. In three games against them this season, he's only averaging 23.33 points and rebounds. Miami's defense has been solid throughout the playoffs, and they've shown resilience in coming back from deficits, like their Game 2 win where they stormed back with a 36-point fourth quarter. The Heat's ability to lock in defensively could make things tough for Murray, especially considering his history against them.
Let's also not forget about the other weapons the Nuggets have at their disposal, most importantly Nikola Jokic, who's been an absolute beast in the playoffs, averaging a triple-double and racking up the most triple-doubles ever in a single playoff run. With Jokic playing at such a high level, the Nuggets may not need to lean as heavily on Murray, which could impact his stats. That was definitely evident in game 2 with Jokic having a game high 52 points and rebounds and Murray only having 22 points and rebounds.
The Heat's 3-point shooting has also been a major factor in their playoff success, hitting 39.2% from beyond the arc and having six different players make at least two 3-pointers in Game 2. If Miami continues to light it up from downtown, it could put pressure on Denver to keep pace and force them to spread the ball around more. This could lead to Murray getting fewer looks and ultimately finishing with fewer points and rebounds than the 30.5 line.
Finally, let's talk about the overall context of this series. With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, both teams will be looking to make adjustments and exploit each other's weaknesses. The chess match between coaches and players could lead to more balanced scoring efforts and a focus on team basketball, which could potentially limit Murray's individual production.
So there you have it. I’m taking the under on Murray’s 30.5 points and rebounds line for the upcoming NBA finals game against the Miami Heat. I believe that the combination of Murray's road struggles, his history against the Heat, the law of averages, and the context and momentum of this series all point towards him coming up just short of that mark. Let’s lock this in and CASH OUT!
Pick: Jamal Murray Under 30.5 Pts+Reb (-120)
JP👊🏾🤑
Your Sports IQ + AI = Pine Sports