1U Framber Valdez (HOU) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-120) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Framber Valdez was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on last season. The then 28-year-old posted a 17-6 record with a 2.82 ERA and 26 quality starts in his 31 trips to the mound. Framber is an elite ground ball artist, generating a 60%+ clip for the 6th consecutive season to begin his career. This can be attributed to his lethal sinker that he utilizes a shade under 50% of the time. Opponents have only a .284 wOBA against this offering while his put away rate on that pitch has more than doubled from last season.
His cutter, curveball, and changeup are all very good secondary pitches that play well of his sinker, and now all 4 pitches have a put away rate of 25.3% or higher this year. The curveball receives over 25% usage and has been his best secondary pitch with a .200 wOBA allowed and 30 strikeouts to 0 home runs. His cutter induces the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches at 43.9% and opponents are hitting just .156 against it with a .216 wOBA. He uses his changeup solely to right-handed batters and typically as a way to get ahead in counts. The numbers on this pitch are admittedly not great this season but he uses this pitch only 10% of the time overall.
Framber's opponent tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays. While Toronto is a talented team, their glaring weakness this season has been against left-handed pitching. Over the course of the season, they rank 22nd in wOBA against southpaws, but over the last 30 days that drops to dead last at 30th. Specifically, against left-handed sinkers the Blue Jays have the league's lowest SLG at .276, albeit on the 6th fewest pitches (still 266 pitches is a decent enough sample.) While Toronto is a low strikeout rate team overall, against left-handed cutters they actually have the highest K% (and 12th lowest SLG.) The Blue Jays also struggle to elevate the ball against lefties, recording the 6th highest ground ball rate in the league. That plays right into Framber's ideal game plan.
Valdez struggled with walks last season, but a career high first pitch strike rate this year has resulted in a career low BB% and career high K%. His 21.8% K-BB% ranks 13th best among qualified pitchers this season. He does allow hard contact more than I would like, but his ability to keep the ball down lessens that concern. While his 2.16 ERA may be somewhat unsustainable, his 2.87 FIP is the 2nd best mark of his career and even better than last year. Framber has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his 12 starts this season. Dating back to last year he has done so in 33 of 47 starts including the playoffs. Framber ranks 10th in MLB in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA. Despite people knowing his name, he is still vastly underrated in my opinion.
Houston's bullpen is well rested with no single arm having thrown more than once in the last 3 days (only 2 arms have thrown twice in 4 days.) Framber is unfortunately able to go extremely deep into games, making this sweat potentially longer than it needs to be if he is pitching well. That being said if he were to run into any trouble in the middle to later innings, Houston should have no hesitation turning to their pen. Toronto's projected lineup has only 4 bats with a league average or higher wOBA vs southpaw pitching this season and I look for Framber to register another quality outing for the Astros.
1U Framber Valdez (HOU) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-120) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Framber Valdez was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on last season. The then 28-year-old posted a 17-6 record with a 2.82 ERA and 26 quality starts in his 31 trips to the mound. Framber is an elite ground ball artist, generating a 60%+ clip for the 6th consecutive season to begin his career. This can be attributed to his lethal sinker that he utilizes a shade under 50% of the time. Opponents have only a .284 wOBA against this offering while his put away rate on that pitch has more than doubled from last season.
His cutter, curveball, and changeup are all very good secondary pitches that play well of his sinker, and now all 4 pitches have a put away rate of 25.3% or higher this year. The curveball receives over 25% usage and has been his best secondary pitch with a .200 wOBA allowed and 30 strikeouts to 0 home runs. His cutter induces the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches at 43.9% and opponents are hitting just .156 against it with a .216 wOBA. He uses his changeup solely to right-handed batters and typically as a way to get ahead in counts. The numbers on this pitch are admittedly not great this season but he uses this pitch only 10% of the time overall.
Framber's opponent tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays. While Toronto is a talented team, their glaring weakness this season has been against left-handed pitching. Over the course of the season, they rank 22nd in wOBA against southpaws, but over the last 30 days that drops to dead last at 30th. Specifically, against left-handed sinkers the Blue Jays have the league's lowest SLG at .276, albeit on the 6th fewest pitches (still 266 pitches is a decent enough sample.) While Toronto is a low strikeout rate team overall, against left-handed cutters they actually have the highest K% (and 12th lowest SLG.) The Blue Jays also struggle to elevate the ball against lefties, recording the 6th highest ground ball rate in the league. That plays right into Framber's ideal game plan.
Valdez struggled with walks last season, but a career high first pitch strike rate this year has resulted in a career low BB% and career high K%. His 21.8% K-BB% ranks 13th best among qualified pitchers this season. He does allow hard contact more than I would like, but his ability to keep the ball down lessens that concern. While his 2.16 ERA may be somewhat unsustainable, his 2.87 FIP is the 2nd best mark of his career and even better than last year. Framber has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his 12 starts this season. Dating back to last year he has done so in 33 of 47 starts including the playoffs. Framber ranks 10th in MLB in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA. Despite people knowing his name, he is still vastly underrated in my opinion.
Houston's bullpen is well rested with no single arm having thrown more than once in the last 3 days (only 2 arms have thrown twice in 4 days.) Framber is unfortunately able to go extremely deep into games, making this sweat potentially longer than it needs to be if he is pitching well. That being said if he were to run into any trouble in the middle to later innings, Houston should have no hesitation turning to their pen. Toronto's projected lineup has only 4 bats with a league average or higher wOBA vs southpaw pitching this season and I look for Framber to register another quality outing for the Astros.
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