1U Ranger Suarez (PHI) under 4.5 strikeouts (-135) available at BetMGM and DraftKings sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -145 odds. Fine with most alternate ways of fading him as well.
Ranger Suarez has never been a high strikeout rate pitcher at the MLB level. In 2021 he reached 9.08 K/9, but 27 of his 39 appearances that season were from the bullpen. Last season that mark fell to 7.47 as he transitioned to a full-time starter role. He began this year injured with a sore left elbow/forearm. After 3 minor league appearances between AA and AAA (9 combined innings, 104 pitches, only 5 strikeouts), Suarez made his season debut at the major league level in Coors Field against the Rockies. He has since faced the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Nationals. Through 5 starts his K/9 is even lower than last year at 7.30. 20 strikeouts across 24.2 IP gives him a 21st percentile K%. Albeit some of those matchups aren't the easiest to attain strikeouts in, but neither is todays.
Suarez fails to get ahead in counts early with a first pitch strike rate of only 56%, just below his career average of 56.5%. While he is drawing chases at an above average rate this season, his chase contact rate allowed is 3% higher than league average. This leads to both foul balls and weak contact in the field of play, but not strikeouts. Ranger throws the ball inside the zone at a below average rate, which led to a 36th percentile BB% last season, but when in the zone he allows a zone contact rate of 87.3%, 5% higher than league average. Suarez strikes out under 20% of batters from both sides of the plate dating back to last season, leaving his splits advantage non-existent in the strikeout department.
In the last 30 days the Dodgers have the league's 3rd lowest chase rate. When they do chase, they connect at a league average rate. It is very hard to get them out with a 3rd strike outside the zone. Chris Taylor (my arch nemesis) and Max Muncy love to whiff inside the zone, but even those batters take a well-above average number of pitches per plate appearance (4.14 and 4.35 rank 31st and 9th respectively) and are willing to draw walks with their low chase rates. As a whole the Dodgers lineup is rather patient, averaging the 6th most pitches per plate appearance. They have the 8th lowest CSW% over the last 30 days and their contact rate over that span is 11th best.
Los Angeles has a 22.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the course of the season, but now that they are rounding into health and form that rate has dropped significantly. Since May 1st the Dodgers strikeout rate against southpaws is only 18.3%, the 4th lowest in the league during that span. Their BB% (11.2%) and ISO (.312) in that timeframe pace the league while they rank 2nd in wOBA (.400) and 3rd in wRC+ (155.) The Dodgers match up specifically well against Suarez and his arsenal.
Ranger uses his curveball 19.4% of the time but in 2-strike counts that usage rises to an arsenal high 28.1%. It is his main put away pitch, accounting for 9 of his 20 strikeouts this season. Against left-handed curveballs this season the Dodgers have seen the 8th most pitches, rank 10th in ISO, and most importantly have the 4th lowest K%. His changeup and sinker are the next most used pitches in 2 strike counts and were his most used one's last season in that situation. That sinker only generates whiffs at a 14% clip, and he relies heavily on looking strikes when attempting to get a strikeout with that offering. His changeup has never been an overly reliable put away pitch for him efficiency wise, and this season his put away rate is only 9.1% with that pitch. Opponents are also crushing his changeup with an xwOBA of .472. Los Angeles is frst in ISO against left-handed sinkers and left-handed changeups this season.
The Phillies used only 2 bullpen arms yesterday and had the day off on Wednesday due to the fires from Canada. Having a rested bullpen is huge for this bet as Philadelphia won't need to overextend their lefty in the event he runs into any trouble. His large workload in the last 2 games were because he was cruising, something I do not foresee against this loaded Dodgers lineup. Ranger has an outs prop of only 15.5 which is reflective of this. With all things considered the juice on this 4.5 line is too short in my opinion, and I would bet this prop down to -145 odds.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Ranger Suarez U4.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U Ranger Suarez (PHI) under 4.5 strikeouts (-135) available at BetMGM and DraftKings sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -145 odds. Fine with most alternate ways of fading him as well.
Ranger Suarez has never been a high strikeout rate pitcher at the MLB level. In 2021 he reached 9.08 K/9, but 27 of his 39 appearances that season were from the bullpen. Last season that mark fell to 7.47 as he transitioned to a full-time starter role. He began this year injured with a sore left elbow/forearm. After 3 minor league appearances between AA and AAA (9 combined innings, 104 pitches, only 5 strikeouts), Suarez made his season debut at the major league level in Coors Field against the Rockies. He has since faced the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Nationals. Through 5 starts his K/9 is even lower than last year at 7.30. 20 strikeouts across 24.2 IP gives him a 21st percentile K%. Albeit some of those matchups aren't the easiest to attain strikeouts in, but neither is todays.
Suarez fails to get ahead in counts early with a first pitch strike rate of only 56%, just below his career average of 56.5%. While he is drawing chases at an above average rate this season, his chase contact rate allowed is 3% higher than league average. This leads to both foul balls and weak contact in the field of play, but not strikeouts. Ranger throws the ball inside the zone at a below average rate, which led to a 36th percentile BB% last season, but when in the zone he allows a zone contact rate of 87.3%, 5% higher than league average. Suarez strikes out under 20% of batters from both sides of the plate dating back to last season, leaving his splits advantage non-existent in the strikeout department.
In the last 30 days the Dodgers have the league's 3rd lowest chase rate. When they do chase, they connect at a league average rate. It is very hard to get them out with a 3rd strike outside the zone. Chris Taylor (my arch nemesis) and Max Muncy love to whiff inside the zone, but even those batters take a well-above average number of pitches per plate appearance (4.14 and 4.35 rank 31st and 9th respectively) and are willing to draw walks with their low chase rates. As a whole the Dodgers lineup is rather patient, averaging the 6th most pitches per plate appearance. They have the 8th lowest CSW% over the last 30 days and their contact rate over that span is 11th best.
Los Angeles has a 22.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the course of the season, but now that they are rounding into health and form that rate has dropped significantly. Since May 1st the Dodgers strikeout rate against southpaws is only 18.3%, the 4th lowest in the league during that span. Their BB% (11.2%) and ISO (.312) in that timeframe pace the league while they rank 2nd in wOBA (.400) and 3rd in wRC+ (155.) The Dodgers match up specifically well against Suarez and his arsenal.
Ranger uses his curveball 19.4% of the time but in 2-strike counts that usage rises to an arsenal high 28.1%. It is his main put away pitch, accounting for 9 of his 20 strikeouts this season. Against left-handed curveballs this season the Dodgers have seen the 8th most pitches, rank 10th in ISO, and most importantly have the 4th lowest K%. His changeup and sinker are the next most used pitches in 2 strike counts and were his most used one's last season in that situation. That sinker only generates whiffs at a 14% clip, and he relies heavily on looking strikes when attempting to get a strikeout with that offering. His changeup has never been an overly reliable put away pitch for him efficiency wise, and this season his put away rate is only 9.1% with that pitch. Opponents are also crushing his changeup with an xwOBA of .472. Los Angeles is frst in ISO against left-handed sinkers and left-handed changeups this season.
The Phillies used only 2 bullpen arms yesterday and had the day off on Wednesday due to the fires from Canada. Having a rested bullpen is huge for this bet as Philadelphia won't need to overextend their lefty in the event he runs into any trouble. His large workload in the last 2 games were because he was cruising, something I do not foresee against this loaded Dodgers lineup. Ranger has an outs prop of only 15.5 which is reflective of this. With all things considered the juice on this 4.5 line is too short in my opinion, and I would bet this prop down to -145 odds.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Ranger Suarez U4.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
https://t.co/ujiJLGtwPK
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