1U Braxton Garrett over 4.5 strikeouts (-110) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Braxton Garrett won a bet for me last week on a 5.5 line against the Kansas City Royals. I was a bit hesitant taking him on a 5.5 line given his shaky pitch count, but the uber-efficient left-hander racked up the necessary 6 strikeouts in his first 4 innings of work. Garrett was the 7th overall pick out of high school in the 2016 draft and the Marlins have brought him along carefully as he averages only around 80 pitches per start (topping out at 87.) That being said, the southpaw is downright filthy with his strikeout potential. Garrett gets ahead of batters early with a 66.1% first pitch strike rate. This helps him limit walks, but also sets up his ability to draw batters out of the zone. Garrett ranks 82nd percentile with his 32.3% chase rate while his chase contact rate allowed is 13.5% below league average. What has helped his strikeout numbers this season is a zone contact rate allowed that is 5.9% lower than his mark from last season, and now sits at a league average mark. Garrett's swinging strike rate ranks 81st percentile while his called strike plus whiff rate ranks 89th percentile.
The left-hander doesn't throw hard, but his deception is elite with his pitches all emulating one another out of the hand. Garrett essentially dropped his 4-seamer in the off-season, worst pitch from last year, and replaced it with a cutter. While this cutter is primarily used in early counts, he does generate a 35.4% whiff rate on that offering. His sinker has seen increased usage and while most sinkers are not strikeout offerings, Garrett's sinker is located extremely well and has a 25.9% put away rate this year. The slider is his main strikeout offering, generating a 43.5% whiff rate and accounting for 34 of his strikeouts this year. His changeup is also a tool he uses against right-handed batters and a pitch that generates a 38.5% whiff rate. Garrett has an all-around arsenal he can use to attack this lineup with.
The White Sox 22.9% K% against southpaw pitching is the 12th highest mark in MLB. Over the last 30 days that rate rises to 23.5%. The most recent left-hander they faced was Matthew Boyd who diced them up for 9 strikeouts. Eloy Jimenez is the White Sox most feared hitter against southpaw pitching and he is out, leaving an absence of production and removing a low strikeout rate bat from their order. 6 of the last 10 left-handed starters to face the White Sox have allowed 5 or more strikeouts. Tyler Anderson, Joey Wentz, an injured Nick Lodolo, and rookie Logan Allen in his 2nd straight start against the same team were the misses. There are concerns with this bet including a lineup from Chicago that will likely be comprised of all right-handed bats. Garrett does see his strikeout rate fall against RHB, but 5 of the 9 projected bats still possess a 23.5% or higher K% vs LHP since the start of last season while Luis Robert Jr and his 21.9% rate isn't far behind. There is also a slight chance of rain early in the afternoon, but it appears that it should clear up by game time. If it doesn't, having this as a day game will allow for them to wait out the rain as the later afternoon and evening clear up. Wind is blowing out but cooler temperatures and an offense missing their most powerful bat should alleviate that concern.
Even when Garrett got hit around in his last start (4 earned runs to the Royals) he still easily cleared this mark. The 25-year-old has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 5 of his last 6 outings with 7, 7, and 8 in 3 of them. The only miss was against the Rockies in Coors Field. Nate Tomlinson is a relatively young umpire and has only 32 MLB games under his belt but appears to be a fairly neutral umpire. Hopefully that is the case tonight as Braxton Garrett looks to go over his strikeout total.
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1U Braxton Garrett over 4.5 strikeouts (-110) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Braxton Garrett won a bet for me last week on a 5.5 line against the Kansas City Royals. I was a bit hesitant taking him on a 5.5 line given his shaky pitch count, but the uber-efficient left-hander racked up the necessary 6 strikeouts in his first 4 innings of work. Garrett was the 7th overall pick out of high school in the 2016 draft and the Marlins have brought him along carefully as he averages only around 80 pitches per start (topping out at 87.) That being said, the southpaw is downright filthy with his strikeout potential. Garrett gets ahead of batters early with a 66.1% first pitch strike rate. This helps him limit walks, but also sets up his ability to draw batters out of the zone. Garrett ranks 82nd percentile with his 32.3% chase rate while his chase contact rate allowed is 13.5% below league average. What has helped his strikeout numbers this season is a zone contact rate allowed that is 5.9% lower than his mark from last season, and now sits at a league average mark. Garrett's swinging strike rate ranks 81st percentile while his called strike plus whiff rate ranks 89th percentile.
The left-hander doesn't throw hard, but his deception is elite with his pitches all emulating one another out of the hand. Garrett essentially dropped his 4-seamer in the off-season, worst pitch from last year, and replaced it with a cutter. While this cutter is primarily used in early counts, he does generate a 35.4% whiff rate on that offering. His sinker has seen increased usage and while most sinkers are not strikeout offerings, Garrett's sinker is located extremely well and has a 25.9% put away rate this year. The slider is his main strikeout offering, generating a 43.5% whiff rate and accounting for 34 of his strikeouts this year. His changeup is also a tool he uses against right-handed batters and a pitch that generates a 38.5% whiff rate. Garrett has an all-around arsenal he can use to attack this lineup with.
The White Sox 22.9% K% against southpaw pitching is the 12th highest mark in MLB. Over the last 30 days that rate rises to 23.5%. The most recent left-hander they faced was Matthew Boyd who diced them up for 9 strikeouts. Eloy Jimenez is the White Sox most feared hitter against southpaw pitching and he is out, leaving an absence of production and removing a low strikeout rate bat from their order. 6 of the last 10 left-handed starters to face the White Sox have allowed 5 or more strikeouts. Tyler Anderson, Joey Wentz, an injured Nick Lodolo, and rookie Logan Allen in his 2nd straight start against the same team were the misses. There are concerns with this bet including a lineup from Chicago that will likely be comprised of all right-handed bats. Garrett does see his strikeout rate fall against RHB, but 5 of the 9 projected bats still possess a 23.5% or higher K% vs LHP since the start of last season while Luis Robert Jr and his 21.9% rate isn't far behind. There is also a slight chance of rain early in the afternoon, but it appears that it should clear up by game time. If it doesn't, having this as a day game will allow for them to wait out the rain as the later afternoon and evening clear up. Wind is blowing out but cooler temperatures and an offense missing their most powerful bat should alleviate that concern.
Even when Garrett got hit around in his last start (4 earned runs to the Royals) he still easily cleared this mark. The 25-year-old has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 5 of his last 6 outings with 7, 7, and 8 in 3 of them. The only miss was against the Rockies in Coors Field. Nate Tomlinson is a relatively young umpire and has only 32 MLB games under his belt but appears to be a fairly neutral umpire. Hopefully that is the case tonight as Braxton Garrett looks to go over his strikeout total.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Braxton Garrett O4.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
https://t.co/LQQ5R1KImr
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