Welcome back gang! Today we are rolling with Javier over 1.5 walks -130 on DK sportsbook.
Today we are going to the biggest game of the night and game to decide the AL representative to the World Series. Javier has been fantastic for the Astros, probably their best starter of the postseason, but I do really like his walk prop tonight. In the second half of the season, Javier has walked 12.1% of batters and hit this number in 5 of his last 7. I also really like the lineup construction that the Rangers will be throwing out there tonight. Jung, Semien and Adolis should be the only right handed batters tonight, with the possibility of Mitch Garver. On the year, Javier has walked 9.4% of lefties and only has struck out 18.4%. In a game of this magnitude not only do I think the managers are going to be more cautious but also the pitchers. If Javier falls behind, which he does around 40% of the time, his walk rate jumps to 13.2%. Instead of Grooving a 3-1 fastball to someone in this dangerous Rangers lineup, I would expect to see some free passes, especially to Seager or Adolis Garcia. Also, among qualified pitchers, Javier ranked 14th in the MLB in walks, at 68, tied with Corbin Burnes. Of the top 15 on that list, Javier has the 4th fewest innings thrown. Lastly, expect some negative regression to come here soon as well for Javier. On the season he is sporting a 3.65 FIP, with an XFIP of 4.87. Would not be surpised to see this one be the time for it in this crucial game 7 spot.
Welcome back gang! Today we are rolling with Javier over 1.5 walks -130 on DK sportsbook.
Today we are going to the biggest game of the night and game to decide the AL representative to the World Series. Javier has been fantastic for the Astros, probably their best starter of the postseason, but I do really like his walk prop tonight. In the second half of the season, Javier has walked 12.1% of batters and hit this number in 5 of his last 7. I also really like the lineup construction that the Rangers will be throwing out there tonight. Jung, Semien and Adolis should be the only right handed batters tonight, with the possibility of Mitch Garver. On the year, Javier has walked 9.4% of lefties and only has struck out 18.4%. In a game of this magnitude not only do I think the managers are going to be more cautious but also the pitchers. If Javier falls behind, which he does around 40% of the time, his walk rate jumps to 13.2%. Instead of Grooving a 3-1 fastball to someone in this dangerous Rangers lineup, I would expect to see some free passes, especially to Seager or Adolis Garcia. Also, among qualified pitchers, Javier ranked 14th in the MLB in walks, at 68, tied with Corbin Burnes. Of the top 15 on that list, Javier has the 4th fewest innings thrown. Lastly, expect some negative regression to come here soon as well for Javier. On the season he is sporting a 3.65 FIP, with an XFIP of 4.87. Would not be surpised to see this one be the time for it in this crucial game 7 spot.
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