Cam Johnson (BKN) Over 2.5 3PM (-111 FD)

Cam Johnson is a three-point specialist, who’s taken 6, 11, and 7 attempts since he returned from injury going over in 2 of those games. He gets a beautiful matchup against the Heat who allow the MOST points per possession to spot up shooters. 56% of his shots are off zero dribbles and he’s averaging 7 three-point attempts per game this season. PJ Washington just made 6 threes, Keldon Johnson made 3, Bogdan Bogdanovic made 5, and Luke Kennard made 3. In his two matchups with the Heat being on the Nets, he went 3 of 10 and 5 of 8. Heat priority is still protecting the paint, so they leave shooters open hoping they can make good rotations and close outs. In the last few matchups, they’ve had guards defend Cam Thomas and other spot up shooters so they can have more size on others that try to get to the paint. The Heat’s last game they had Lowry on PJ Washington, and Richardson on Bogdan Bogdanovic. If you can hit threes, you can beat the Heat and that is what their defense lives by. Luckily the Nets have someone like Johnson who can light it up from deep. If you read my article yesterday, it is a very similar read to Bogdanovic.

Jimmy Butler (MIA) Under 34.5 PRA (-110 DK)

Butler never really takes the regular season seriously, so he won't chuck shots up, hence his highest attempts game was 18 this season. He took 14 attempts in both games without Herro and is averaging 13.7 attempts on the season. Most of those are coming inside 10 feet, which is 57% of his shots to be exact. The Nets with the addition of Nic Claxton back in the lineup has certainly helped, moving from 9th in points in the paint allowed at 42.1 to 1st (best), allowing only 36 points in the paint. They’ve played some solid forward in the last three games such as Tatum (6 of 17), Kuzma (4 of 16), and Banchero (6 of 15). What Butler loves to do is get to the free throw line with 33% of his points coming off free throws, but the Nets have been good this season not getting into those situations with the 5thbest opponent free throw attempt rate in the league. Those three I named were forced to try and get points off threes as Kuzma went 0-5, Tatum went 4 of 11, and Banchero went 4 of 7. When inside 10 feet, Banchero went 0-4, Kuzma went 4-10, and Tatum went 0-3. Without the likes of Ben Simmons pushing the pace for the Nets, this game is most likely going to play very slow. Butler is averaging 32 PRA per 36 minutes with Herro off the court this season. That doesn’t even account for the season debut of Caleb Martin who takes a ton of rebound chances away from him. With Bam, Caleb, Kyle, all playing it will be a lot of ball movement and evenly distributed shot attempts which is why I don’t see Butler going over 16 field goal attempts tonight, plus the slow pace that this game may carry, and it makes sense with a 215-point total. In the last three games since the nets made their big trades which includes the game this season, he’s taken 11 13 and 16 field goal attempts. In those games he’s had PRA of 22, 24, and 30. This is going to be a game where the Heat rely on the three ball more. The game without Claxton playing November 1st, 75% of his attempts came inside 10 feet, going 7 of 12. It wont be that easy this time around with Claxton playing this time.