Duncan Robinson Over 15.5 Pts (-110 DK)
In four games without Tyler Herro, he’s playing 35.5 mpg, shooting 47% from the field on 14.5 field goal attempts, going over this prop in 3 of the 4 games. 67% of his shots are three pointers as he’s always been known as a spot up shooter and luckily he’s playing one of the worst teams in the league in defending the three ball. They are allowing the highest frequency of spot ups because they always collapse to the paint when teams get penetration, leaving may shooters open. Jimmy Butler will create a lot of kick out opportunities as he averages one of the highest rates of drives per game in the league. He’s averaging 18 points per 36 minutes with Herro off the court and I’ve been attacking spot up shooters against the Bulls all season and will continue to do so until they change their philosophy.
Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Pts (-115 FD)
Guards who can drive and pullup have killed the Bucks all season and have the loss of all their guards who played defense over the offseason, they ended up with guards who aren’t that good on defense. The drop coverage certainly doesn’t help either as it just invites pullup shooters to feast. He’s gone over this prop in 6 of 9 games with Kyrie Irving this season, averaging 21.2 field goal attempts per game. Bucks are allowing the MOST pullup field goals made per game this season. Luka is shooting 46% on pullups and its 57% of his shot selection. Bucks are also allowing the 6th most points per possession to pick and roll ball handlers which is great because he’s scoring 1.04 points per possession on a 34% frequency.
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Reb (-135 DK)
No Zion means KAT will be stuck on three point shooters such as Ryan or Earl-Robinson, leaving Gobert free to roam the paint in his drop coverage against Jonas Valanciunas. Last time around he had 27 rebound chances. Pelicans don’t have a lot of three point shooters which should turn into less long rebounds. The main scorer will be Ingram who gets to the rim and lots of mid range shots. 56% of his rebounds come off missed two point field goal attempts. (39% from missed threes). He’s still averaging 18 rebound chances the last four games and the Pelicans are allowing the 2nd most rebounds per game this season to opponents. He’s gone over this prop in 7 of 11 games this season, which includes a season high 21 rebounds last time around.
Bismack Biyombo Over 9.5 Reb (-120 DK)
Tillman is still out and he’s been averaging 31.3 minutes 12 rebounds per game and 20 rebound chances. Tillman played in the blowout last game but Biyombo still had 8 rebounds on 14 rebound chances in 23 minutes, yet he’s played 26+ in every game but last game. Spurs are allowing the 5thmost rebounds to centers this season (per NBA website). When Tillman is off the court, he’s averaging 13 rebounds per 36 minutes. A big part of his game is getting offensive rebounds and the Spurs are allowing the 5th most to centers. Robinson, Bam, Gobert, Sabonis, and Holmgren are all centers with at least 17 rebound chances in the past five games against the Spurs. Not much depth for Grizzlies centers so he could get 28-33 minutes tonight.