Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 42.5 PRA (-115 BET365)
Shai has improved as a passer and rebounder this season as his averages went up from 4.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game to 6.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. No Jalen Williams today means more passing opportunities for Shai because he’s averaged a team high 8 assists and 11 potential assists in the last two games without him. Per 36 minutes without him this season with Williams off the court he’s averaging 7 rebounds and 7 assists. With him off the court scoring, per 36 minutes he’s averaging an insane 40 points per 36 minutes. He’s gone over this prop in 9 of 14 games this season. He’ gets a matchup against the 76ers today who some may think is a tougher matchup because Melton is a solid defender, in which he is, but the problem with that is this team plays a lot of 2-3 zone which means he doesn’t have to face Melton as much. And even if he does, Shai’s pullup jumper is outstanding this season and will be the best pullup shooter they’ve faced all season. Going against the Cavaliers and Timberwolves the past two games, the 76ers have allowed 44 and 45 PRA to Edwards and Garland. Melton was the primary defender for both guys as well. The Thunder can push the pace on the 76ers, which they struggle against, giving up top 5 most fastbreak points per game. With the pick and roll, Embiid is going to go into drop coverage giving him good looks to pullup. This 2-3 will be great for assists because it will draw some traps setting up some good looks for others. Another elite guard the 76ers played earlier in the season was Lillard who had 51 PRA. These traps are great for assists.
Trae Young Over 10.5 AST (-120 DK)
The interior of this Wizards defense and their defense in general is just terrible with zero leadership. The pace of this game should be insane as both teams are top 5 in pace this month. Lillard (7 & 10), Ball (13), Brunson (7), Doncic (10) in the last 5 games have been dominating in the assists category. Per 100 possessions, Young is averaging 13.8 assists per game, with 47% of those assists coming at the rim. The Wizards are allowing the 2nd most field goals made inside 10 feet this month. With a 249 point-total, similar to the Pacers game and me taking Haliburton assists over, it is a very similar read here. We know Young loves the pick and roll and the Wizards are allowing the 5th most points per possession against the roller this season, which is more of a reason to pass the ball and get assists. The wizards are terrible with rotations and with his dribble penetration, this should create a lot of open looks tonight.
Keyonte George Under 19.5 PA (+100 DK)
3 of his 7 assists per game since he’s been starting in the last 8 games has gone to Markkanen and Clarkson. THT should be starting along him and with him on the court that is another ball handler who will take some passing looks away. The two primary scorers are not playing which will be tough for this team to create shots. No Zion for the Pelicans means Herbert Jones is inserted into the lineup who is another solid defender. The typical Utah rotation has been rotating in entire units so who starts will most likely be always on the court together today. With no real scorer for guards his primary defender will be Dyson Daniels who has been doing a great job on defense this season defending some of the best scorers such as Anthony Edwards, Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, SGA, and Steph Curry, forcing them to shoot a combined field goal percentage of 44% with high volume. May not sound like much but his length and great instincts will be too much for George as he’s not near the scorers they are. Most of his field goals are taken inside the paint with the Pelicans defending guards very well at a top 10 ranking there. They are also allowing a top 10 fewest pullup field goals made as well for this month. Hawkins and Ingram are the only scorers for the Pelicans lineup and is more defensive oriented lineup today. Without Clarkson and Markkanen on the court per 36 minutes, he’s averaging 13.7 points per 36 minutes. He’s averaging 28 minutes per game in his 8 starts this season. In games with at least 25 minutes this season, he's gone under this prop in 5 of 8 games. He’s averaging 11 potential assists per game in these 8 starts and without shot creators it will be tough to get guys open. With those two off the court, he’s also averaging 4.9 assists per 36 minutes this season.
Spencer Dinwiddie Under 15.5 Pts (-110 DK)
Dinwiddie is averaging 14 field goal attempts without Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons playing this season in 5 games. Last time he faced he Heat he had 10 points on 2 of 9 shooting from the field. A big reason for that is the Highsmith matchup. He is an elite defender who’s very underrated, defending some of the best players in the league. He knows how to take away the pullup and force you to take very tough shots. 38% of his attempts are pullups this season and goes up to 41% in the last five games. He’s a 31% pullup shooter on season which is not a good sign for him. He does love to drive, and he has a 54% field goal percentage inside 10 feet this season, but against the Heat they forced him to only take one attempt inside 10 feet. He’s gone over this line twice in the last 5 games and that was due to high volume shooting with 18 and 23 attempts. Even without the shot chucker Cam Thomas only not playing, he’s still averaging 12.8 field goal attempts per game. When Ben Simmons doesn’t play the pace really slows down and the Heat thrive in playing in slower environments. If Highsmith is the primary defender again, look for him to disrupt Dinwiddie shots again.