Herbert Jones under 17.5 PRA (-120 DraftKings)
With Herbert Jones set to expend his energy on the defensive end against Steph Curry, I'm betting on him to fall short of the 17.5 PRA line in the upcoming clash.
Diving into the numbers, Herbert Jones has been the talk of the town for his defensive prowess, but that might just be the reason why his Points, Assists, and Rebounds (PRA) could take a hit against Golden State. It's not just about the hustle; it's about the energy drain that comes with chasing around a player of Curry's caliber, navigating through relentless screens and staying alert for those quick-release threes. Defense wins games, but it might cost Jones on his PRA tonight.
Let's break it down. Jones' season average sits at 16.91 PRA, teetering just below the line set by Vegas. But when you zoom in on his performance at home, he's slightly overperforming with a 17.11 average. However, he seems to lose a bit of that edge on the road, where his average dips to 16.67 PRA. These numbers alone might make you think twice before betting the over.
The more recent stats, though, really tell the tale. Over his last 20 games, Jones has an average of 15.8 PRA, with only 8 instances of crossing that 17.5 threshold. That's just 40%, folks. And it doesn't stop there – the trend over the last 10 games is even more telling, with a 13.5 PRA average and only 3 games above 17.5. That's a whopping 70% of his last 10 games where he's stayed under the line. If that's not a flashing red light, I don't know what is.
Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room – his performance against Golden State. In his sole game facing off against the Warriors, Jones recorded a meager 7.0 PRA. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it's not exactly a number that inspires confidence in his offensive production, especially when he's likely to be preoccupied with defensive duties.
It's no secret that Jones has been trending down over the last stretch. His last 5 games show a slight uptick with a 16.6 PRA average, but that's still not crossing the line set for today's game. When you have to shadow a player like Curry, even the slightest uptick in your recent stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Curry's not just any player; he's a two-time MVP who demands your A-game on defense. Jones will have his hands full, and that extra effort on the defensive end might just sap the energy he needs to contribute offensively.
Now, let's not discount Jones' ability completely. He's had 14 games this season where he's gone over 17.5 PRA. But we're not living in the past; we're dealing with the here and now. And right now, the data doesn't favor the over.
So, for all you bettors out there looking for an edge, consider this: Betting is about playing the odds, and the odds, backed by the cold, hard stats, suggest that Jones will likely go under his PRA line of 17.5 today. No one's saying it's a lock, but the numbers – and Jones' defensive assignment – make a compelling case for the under. Keep your wagers savvy, and may the stats be ever in your favor.
Herbert Jones under 17.5 PRA (-120 DraftKings)
With Herbert Jones set to expend his energy on the defensive end against Steph Curry, I'm betting on him to fall short of the 17.5 PRA line in the upcoming clash.
Diving into the numbers, Herbert Jones has been the talk of the town for his defensive prowess, but that might just be the reason why his Points, Assists, and Rebounds (PRA) could take a hit against Golden State. It's not just about the hustle; it's about the energy drain that comes with chasing around a player of Curry's caliber, navigating through relentless screens and staying alert for those quick-release threes. Defense wins games, but it might cost Jones on his PRA tonight.
Let's break it down. Jones' season average sits at 16.91 PRA, teetering just below the line set by Vegas. But when you zoom in on his performance at home, he's slightly overperforming with a 17.11 average. However, he seems to lose a bit of that edge on the road, where his average dips to 16.67 PRA. These numbers alone might make you think twice before betting the over.
The more recent stats, though, really tell the tale. Over his last 20 games, Jones has an average of 15.8 PRA, with only 8 instances of crossing that 17.5 threshold. That's just 40%, folks. And it doesn't stop there – the trend over the last 10 games is even more telling, with a 13.5 PRA average and only 3 games above 17.5. That's a whopping 70% of his last 10 games where he's stayed under the line. If that's not a flashing red light, I don't know what is.
Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room – his performance against Golden State. In his sole game facing off against the Warriors, Jones recorded a meager 7.0 PRA. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it's not exactly a number that inspires confidence in his offensive production, especially when he's likely to be preoccupied with defensive duties.
It's no secret that Jones has been trending down over the last stretch. His last 5 games show a slight uptick with a 16.6 PRA average, but that's still not crossing the line set for today's game. When you have to shadow a player like Curry, even the slightest uptick in your recent stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Curry's not just any player; he's a two-time MVP who demands your A-game on defense. Jones will have his hands full, and that extra effort on the defensive end might just sap the energy he needs to contribute offensively.
Now, let's not discount Jones' ability completely. He's had 14 games this season where he's gone over 17.5 PRA. But we're not living in the past; we're dealing with the here and now. And right now, the data doesn't favor the over.
So, for all you bettors out there looking for an edge, consider this: Betting is about playing the odds, and the odds, backed by the cold, hard stats, suggest that Jones will likely go under his PRA line of 17.5 today. No one's saying it's a lock, but the numbers – and Jones' defensive assignment – make a compelling case for the under. Keep your wagers savvy, and may the stats be ever in your favor.
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