Defying the odds and trends, I'm rolling with Colton Parayko to land more than 1.5 shots on goal in the upcoming clash with Montreal. 

When you're talking puck, you can't ignore the powerhouse that is Colton Parayko of the St. Louis Blues, especially with the Blues gearing up to face Montreal. The betting lines might seem like a gamble, but here's why Parayko shooting over 1.5 shots on goal isn't just wishful thinking—it's a bet backed by cold, hard stats.

Let's break down the numbers. Overall, Parayko is averaging 1.98 shots on goal this season. But when he's away from the familiar ice of home, where he averages 2.2 shots, he still isn't exactly shy at firing at the net, with an average of 1.75 shots on goal on the road. The dude's consistency is as solid as the Blues' defense itself.

Sure, some might point out that in 19 games this season, Parayko dipped below that 1.5 mark. But hey, let's not dwell on the past. Instead, let's look at the trend over the last 20 games where he's nailed an average of 1.95 shots on goal. More impressively, in the last 10 games, he's upped the ante to 2.3 shots on goal, hitting the over in 7 of those matchups. That's the kind of upward swing that gets a bettor's attention.

Now, I hear the skeptics mumbling about the last 5 games, where Parayko's average dipped to 1.8. But even then, he still managed to break the 1.5 threshold in 4 out of those 5 games. And in his single game against Montreal this season, he's bang on the money with an average of 2.0 shots on goal. If that's not a sign to bet the over, I don't know what is.

So, we've got a defenseman who's not just holding the line but stepping up and taking shots. Parayko's no stranger to the offensive play and has shown a knack for finding those windows of opportunity to let the puck fly. It's not just about quantity, either; it's the quality of those shots—timely, well-placed, and often enough, a real headache for goalies.

But hey, it's not just about playing the numbers game. We've got to consider the matchup, too. Montreal's defense isn't exactly the Great Wall of China this season, and their goaltending has been, well, let's just say, less than stellar. It's the perfect storm for a player like Parayko, who can capitalize on those gaps and unleash his cannon of a shot.

Now, the Blues are coming off a solid win against Buffalo, where Parayko's presence on the ice was felt even if the puck didn't always hit the back of the net. The team's riding that high, pushing for a playoff spot, and players like Parayko are stepping up when it counts. Momentum's a powerful thing in sports, and the Blues have it in spades right now.

In the betting world, there's no such thing as a lock, but there are smart bets. And putting your chips on Colton Parayko to fire over 1.5 shots on goal against Montreal is just that—a savvy wager based on a season's worth of data and a player with a solid track record. So, when the puck drops, don't be surprised when Parayko takes aim and proves that betting on the over is the smart play.