Pick #4: Jalen Williams u18.5 Points (-135 DraftKings)

**Jalen Williams Expected to Fall Short of 18.5 Points Against New Orleans Pelicans**

In Tuesday's NBA clash, Jalen Williams and the Oklahoma City Thunder are set to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans in what promises to be a fiercely contested matchup. However, despite Williams' recent scoring streak, I'm betting on him to come up short of the 18.5 point mark in this game.

Williams has been on a scoring tear lately, averaging an impressive 18.8 points per game over his last 10 outings. However, it's essential to note that this average has been somewhat inflated by a standout 31-point performance against Portland. As he heads into New Orleans, a team he has historically struggled against, Williams is facing a tough challenge.

In his two previous matchups against the Pelicans this season, Williams has only managed to average 16.5 points per game. Moreover, the Pelicans boast a formidable defense, ranking fourth in the league for fewest points allowed per game over the last 10 games. Their defensive prowess extends to limiting points in the paint, where Williams often thrives, making it difficult for him to find scoring opportunities.

Furthermore, the Pelicans excel at shutting down the pick and roll ball handling playtype, a significant part of Williams' offensive arsenal, with the third-lowest scoring frequency against this playtype in the league. Considering that pick and roll ball handling accounts for a substantial portion of Williams' scoring output, this defensive strategy poses a significant challenge for him.

In matchups where Williams has faced top-tier defenses, he has struggled to reach the 19-point threshold, falling short in 11 out of 15 games. With the Pelicans boasting a top-15 defensive rating overall, Williams is likely to face stiff resistance from defenders like Herb Jones and Naji Marshall, further diminishing his scoring opportunities.

Overall, given the pace of the matchup and Williams' historical struggles against elite defenses like the Pelicans, I'm confident in my pick for him to score under 18.5 points in this game.