Murphy has not had a lot of shot volume without Brandon Ingram, only seeing a high of 13 field goal attempts when he does not play in 6 games so far. Without Ingram he’s gone under this line in 5 of 6 games, with the only over being against the Thunder who allow the 5th highest catch & shoot frequency in the past 10 games. The problem here is that he’s facing a good catch & shoot defense, as the Celtics are allowing the 5th lowest frequency of catch & shoot threes in the past 10 games. This season when Murphy plays 30+ minutes and takes 15 or less field goal attempts (minimum 8 attempts) against the top 20 spot up defenses, he’s gone under this prop in 8 of 12 games. Even when you take away top 20 spot defenses and just look filter 30+ minutes and 15 or less field goal attempts, he’s gone under this prop in 12 of 18 games. Another good chunk of his points come in transition as well, where the Celtics have been good this season, ranked as a top 5 transition defense. The Celtics are playing with the 5th slowest pace in the past 10 games. The person with the best matchup is CJ McCollum who has a solid pullup matchup and is the primary pullup shooter, especially without Brandon Ingram. The Celtics are allowing the 7th highest pullup frequency with the 3rd most pullup field goals made in the past 10 games, and with his current volume without Ingram (18+ field goal attempts in four straight games), when he plays 30+ minutes and takes 18+ field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 9 of 12 games this season (31.5 PRA line). In 6 of 8 games without Ingram, he’s seen 20+ field goal attempts. In games with 19+ field goal attempts and 30+ minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 8 of 9 games this season. He’s seen 9 rebound chances in back-to-back games along with 8 and 15 potential assists. The Celtics are more vulnerable on the road and with a 1 seed secured not only in the Eastern conference but for the Finals as well (assuming they don’t just lose every game here on out as they are six games ahead of anyone in Western conference). The Celtics will continue to play drop coverage off the pick & roll as they have all season, benefiting McCollum. The Celtics don’t like to really sag off of shooters, which affects guys like Murphy considering they have so many players that are good in defending in isolation. I believe the Celtics will be even more focused on clogging the paint, using a lot of drop coverage to try to defend Zion which could turn into a lot of potential assists for him tonight, but Zion was able to match up with a lot of different defenders. Its hard to defend him as you need someone that has a good first step to cut him off but also strong enough to not get bullied all the way to the rim. Even though his game is very one dimensional in terms of scoring, he is very effective in making it work. Having Porzingis play this time around could be the difference, but it is hard to tell what Zion you will get tonight as a lot of his assists rely on threes. Overall, I will be tackling McCollum PRA & Murphy points tonight.
Trey Murphy Under 15.5 Pts (-120 FD)
CJ McCollum Over 31.5 PRA (-113 FD)
(McCollum L5 Games)
Murphy has not had a lot of shot volume without Brandon Ingram, only seeing a high of 13 field goal attempts when he does not play in 6 games so far. Without Ingram he’s gone under this line in 5 of 6 games, with the only over being against the Thunder who allow the 5th highest catch & shoot frequency in the past 10 games. The problem here is that he’s facing a good catch & shoot defense, as the Celtics are allowing the 5th lowest frequency of catch & shoot threes in the past 10 games. This season when Murphy plays 30+ minutes and takes 15 or less field goal attempts (minimum 8 attempts) against the top 20 spot up defenses, he’s gone under this prop in 8 of 12 games. Even when you take away top 20 spot defenses and just look filter 30+ minutes and 15 or less field goal attempts, he’s gone under this prop in 12 of 18 games. Another good chunk of his points come in transition as well, where the Celtics have been good this season, ranked as a top 5 transition defense. The Celtics are playing with the 5th slowest pace in the past 10 games. The person with the best matchup is CJ McCollum who has a solid pullup matchup and is the primary pullup shooter, especially without Brandon Ingram. The Celtics are allowing the 7th highest pullup frequency with the 3rd most pullup field goals made in the past 10 games, and with his current volume without Ingram (18+ field goal attempts in four straight games), when he plays 30+ minutes and takes 18+ field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 9 of 12 games this season (31.5 PRA line). In 6 of 8 games without Ingram, he’s seen 20+ field goal attempts. In games with 19+ field goal attempts and 30+ minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 8 of 9 games this season. He’s seen 9 rebound chances in back-to-back games along with 8 and 15 potential assists. The Celtics are more vulnerable on the road and with a 1 seed secured not only in the Eastern conference but for the Finals as well (assuming they don’t just lose every game here on out as they are six games ahead of anyone in Western conference). The Celtics will continue to play drop coverage off the pick & roll as they have all season, benefiting McCollum. The Celtics don’t like to really sag off of shooters, which affects guys like Murphy considering they have so many players that are good in defending in isolation. I believe the Celtics will be even more focused on clogging the paint, using a lot of drop coverage to try to defend Zion which could turn into a lot of potential assists for him tonight, but Zion was able to match up with a lot of different defenders. Its hard to defend him as you need someone that has a good first step to cut him off but also strong enough to not get bullied all the way to the rim. Even though his game is very one dimensional in terms of scoring, he is very effective in making it work. Having Porzingis play this time around could be the difference, but it is hard to tell what Zion you will get tonight as a lot of his assists rely on threes. Overall, I will be tackling McCollum PRA & Murphy points tonight.
Trey Murphy Under 15.5 Pts (-120 FD)
CJ McCollum Over 31.5 PRA (-113 FD)
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this is great, thanks man