Jalen Suggs Over 19.5 PRA (-105 DK)
Suggs has been very consistent home player where he averages a few more points compared to when he is on the road. He has been getting consistent minutes, reaching 25+ minutes in 8 of his last 10 games and consistent shot usage, seeing 9+ field goal attempts in 7 of his last 10 games as well. In games with 25+ minutes and 9+ field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 25 of 36 games, but when you filter that for only homes games, he’s gone over this prop in 16 of 21 games. Looking at the matchup the Grizzlies have been one of the worst catch & shoot defenses, allowing the 9th highest frequency and the 4th most made in the past 10 games. 43% of his attempts have been catch & shoot the past 10 games. Gary Harris was ruled out, which should free up some extra looks for him from three. Without Harris at home with 25+ minutes and 9+ field goal attempts, he’s over this prop in 8 of 11 games. Almost 50% of his points come from above the break this season, and the Grizzlies are allowing the 6th most made in the past 10 games. These two teams played at the end of January when the Magic were on the road but Suggs only ended up playing 2 minutes, but took two attempts. In those two attempts, one was him coming off an off ball screen where the defender got lost and the other one was dribble penetration from a teammate where the defense is focused only on the paint. Both attempts he was left wide open. With Banchero and Wagner liking to get into the paint and taking all that attention, I expect him to benefit the most from all of it. The Lakers just played the Grizzlies where Hachimura and Russell each had 5+ threes made Maneuvering screens for this Grizzlies team has been as struggle, which should benefit Suggs even more tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 Pts (-104 FD)
In games with the starting five playing 28+ minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 18 of 26 games this season, but since the all-star break, he’s gone over this prop in 6 of 7 games. I tried taking a pick & pop player in Brooks against the Pelicans the other day and didn’t work out but I’m attacking this system again today as the main focus of the Pelicans defense as been limiting the ball handler with either traps or cutting off driving lanes, but it has allowed for a lot of scoring for the roller in these pick & roll situations. The Pelicans are allowing the 7th most above the break threes in the past 10 games and that is where 38% of Porzingis points have come from. Porzingis has taken 14+ field goal attempts in 8 of his last 10 games with the starting five and his last 10 games overall. When he takes 14+ field goal attempts with 28+ minutes with the starting five, he’s gone over this prop in 13 of 16 games this season. He did not play in their previous matchup back in late January but Al Horford took his spot and took 6 threes. With Porzingis size in the paint, Jonas will have to get a good amount of minutes, and with him being so slow, he’s forced to play drop coverage, which should leave a lot of three point opportunities for Porzingis tonight.
Jalen Suggs Over 19.5 PRA (-105 DK)
Suggs has been very consistent home player where he averages a few more points compared to when he is on the road. He has been getting consistent minutes, reaching 25+ minutes in 8 of his last 10 games and consistent shot usage, seeing 9+ field goal attempts in 7 of his last 10 games as well. In games with 25+ minutes and 9+ field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 25 of 36 games, but when you filter that for only homes games, he’s gone over this prop in 16 of 21 games. Looking at the matchup the Grizzlies have been one of the worst catch & shoot defenses, allowing the 9th highest frequency and the 4th most made in the past 10 games. 43% of his attempts have been catch & shoot the past 10 games. Gary Harris was ruled out, which should free up some extra looks for him from three. Without Harris at home with 25+ minutes and 9+ field goal attempts, he’s over this prop in 8 of 11 games. Almost 50% of his points come from above the break this season, and the Grizzlies are allowing the 6th most made in the past 10 games. These two teams played at the end of January when the Magic were on the road but Suggs only ended up playing 2 minutes, but took two attempts. In those two attempts, one was him coming off an off ball screen where the defender got lost and the other one was dribble penetration from a teammate where the defense is focused only on the paint. Both attempts he was left wide open. With Banchero and Wagner liking to get into the paint and taking all that attention, I expect him to benefit the most from all of it. The Lakers just played the Grizzlies where Hachimura and Russell each had 5+ threes made Maneuvering screens for this Grizzlies team has been as struggle, which should benefit Suggs even more tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 Pts (-104 FD)
In games with the starting five playing 28+ minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 18 of 26 games this season, but since the all-star break, he’s gone over this prop in 6 of 7 games. I tried taking a pick & pop player in Brooks against the Pelicans the other day and didn’t work out but I’m attacking this system again today as the main focus of the Pelicans defense as been limiting the ball handler with either traps or cutting off driving lanes, but it has allowed for a lot of scoring for the roller in these pick & roll situations. The Pelicans are allowing the 7th most above the break threes in the past 10 games and that is where 38% of Porzingis points have come from. Porzingis has taken 14+ field goal attempts in 8 of his last 10 games with the starting five and his last 10 games overall. When he takes 14+ field goal attempts with 28+ minutes with the starting five, he’s gone over this prop in 13 of 16 games this season. He did not play in their previous matchup back in late January but Al Horford took his spot and took 6 threes. With Porzingis size in the paint, Jonas will have to get a good amount of minutes, and with him being so slow, he’s forced to play drop coverage, which should leave a lot of three point opportunities for Porzingis tonight.
No need to sift through the clutter.
Just use the prop cheatsheet.