Analyzing the last matchup starting with the Clippers defense first, we see that they did not try to switch much and relied on man to man, but a lot of the times Zubac was in drop coverage but off the pick and roll he wouldn’t try and drop too far back, but just enough to give them the free throw line look while the defender guarding the ball handler was doing their best to be on their hip off the screen. A lot of time the Clippers executed this very poorly. Their were times guys like Fox and Monk would be able to pull off the switch and trying to get straight to the rim. Clippers did an awful job of defending the paint from driving guards. They did not play much help defense and don’t have someone that can match the speed of Fox, especially if he forces a switch to get to the rim. Murray can have a solid game here tonight as they struggled to go over screens whether it was on or off ball screens, and if he gets a decent looks, he will pull the trigger.
The Kings defense on the other hand was always ready for help on Kawhi, especially without Paul George playing that game, but off the pick and roll, a lot of the time Sabonis would do a quick step up to try and limit some of his midrange looks. It seems it was a big goal for the Kings to take away the three ball from the Clippers as they shot 8 of 27 from deep. With so much attention to the ball handler, this could mean easy buckets in the paint for Zubac who did have 9 attempts in this game. Paul George could be a difference maker in this game but he did not play in the last game and got hurt by halftime in the matchup before that. We know George is going to want to shoot the three ball, especially using off ball screens. Looking at the stats of the Kings defense as of late, they are allowing the 13th fewest catch & shoot threes made, but opposing teams have the 11th highest catch & shoot frequency, all in the past 10 games.
With No Huerter, they’ve inserted Keon Ellis into the starting lineup who has been forcing turnovers, but a player with a good first step can give him problems all night, which George can certainly do. Going back to the stats, the Clippers are doing terrible against the three ball, allowing the 6th most catch & shoot threes in the past 10 games. Both teams have been working on taking away pullup two’s, both being top 3 in fewest field goals made in the past 10 games. The Clippers are allowing the 10th most field goals made inside 10 feet, which is exactly what Fox has thrived at doing against the Clippers in past games.
From the Kings side a player I want to attack tonight is Keegan Murray as he should be able to take advantage of poor three-point defense. No Monk or Huerter means his usage should go up. When both are off the court, he is averaging 19.6 points per 36 minutes. He just played without both last game and scored 25 points on a team high 18 field goal attempts. Not only that but this is a home game where he is averaging an extra 5 points compared to road games. Not being able to navigate screens is going to be very helpful as the Kings use a lot of pick & roll and also handoffs to free him up. In 7 of his last 10 games, he’s seen 12+ field goal attempts. With both Monk and Huerter off, I can see at least a baseline of 13+ field goal attempts, and when he does this with 30+ minutes this season, he’s gone over this prop in 17 of 28 games, but also 13 of 16 when at home.
Because the Clippers do not like to switch much, Sabonis may have a tough time scoring off the roll in pick & roll actions. The lack of help defense will limit his cuts from the dunkers spot as well. With Huerter and Monk off the court, he’s averaging 16.4 points per 36 minutes. He’s taken more than 14 field goal attempts without Huerter this season just once and without both players, he took 14 field goal attempts last game against a bad Jazz interior defense, still missing this line. When he’s taken 14 or less field goal attempts without Huerter this season, he’s gone under this prop in 7 of 8 games. When you look at games of 30+ minutes and 14 or less field goal attempts with at least Fox and Murray playing, he’s gone under this prop in 22 of 36 games this season.
Keegan Murray Over 17.5 Pts (-105 DK)
Domantas Sabonis Under 18.5 Pts (+100 FD)
Analyzing the last matchup starting with the Clippers defense first, we see that they did not try to switch much and relied on man to man, but a lot of the times Zubac was in drop coverage but off the pick and roll he wouldn’t try and drop too far back, but just enough to give them the free throw line look while the defender guarding the ball handler was doing their best to be on their hip off the screen. A lot of time the Clippers executed this very poorly. Their were times guys like Fox and Monk would be able to pull off the switch and trying to get straight to the rim. Clippers did an awful job of defending the paint from driving guards. They did not play much help defense and don’t have someone that can match the speed of Fox, especially if he forces a switch to get to the rim. Murray can have a solid game here tonight as they struggled to go over screens whether it was on or off ball screens, and if he gets a decent looks, he will pull the trigger.
The Kings defense on the other hand was always ready for help on Kawhi, especially without Paul George playing that game, but off the pick and roll, a lot of the time Sabonis would do a quick step up to try and limit some of his midrange looks. It seems it was a big goal for the Kings to take away the three ball from the Clippers as they shot 8 of 27 from deep. With so much attention to the ball handler, this could mean easy buckets in the paint for Zubac who did have 9 attempts in this game. Paul George could be a difference maker in this game but he did not play in the last game and got hurt by halftime in the matchup before that. We know George is going to want to shoot the three ball, especially using off ball screens. Looking at the stats of the Kings defense as of late, they are allowing the 13th fewest catch & shoot threes made, but opposing teams have the 11th highest catch & shoot frequency, all in the past 10 games.
With No Huerter, they’ve inserted Keon Ellis into the starting lineup who has been forcing turnovers, but a player with a good first step can give him problems all night, which George can certainly do. Going back to the stats, the Clippers are doing terrible against the three ball, allowing the 6th most catch & shoot threes in the past 10 games. Both teams have been working on taking away pullup two’s, both being top 3 in fewest field goals made in the past 10 games. The Clippers are allowing the 10th most field goals made inside 10 feet, which is exactly what Fox has thrived at doing against the Clippers in past games.
From the Kings side a player I want to attack tonight is Keegan Murray as he should be able to take advantage of poor three-point defense. No Monk or Huerter means his usage should go up. When both are off the court, he is averaging 19.6 points per 36 minutes. He just played without both last game and scored 25 points on a team high 18 field goal attempts. Not only that but this is a home game where he is averaging an extra 5 points compared to road games. Not being able to navigate screens is going to be very helpful as the Kings use a lot of pick & roll and also handoffs to free him up. In 7 of his last 10 games, he’s seen 12+ field goal attempts. With both Monk and Huerter off, I can see at least a baseline of 13+ field goal attempts, and when he does this with 30+ minutes this season, he’s gone over this prop in 17 of 28 games, but also 13 of 16 when at home.
Because the Clippers do not like to switch much, Sabonis may have a tough time scoring off the roll in pick & roll actions. The lack of help defense will limit his cuts from the dunkers spot as well. With Huerter and Monk off the court, he’s averaging 16.4 points per 36 minutes. He’s taken more than 14 field goal attempts without Huerter this season just once and without both players, he took 14 field goal attempts last game against a bad Jazz interior defense, still missing this line. When he’s taken 14 or less field goal attempts without Huerter this season, he’s gone under this prop in 7 of 8 games. When you look at games of 30+ minutes and 14 or less field goal attempts with at least Fox and Murray playing, he’s gone under this prop in 22 of 36 games this season.
Keegan Murray Over 17.5 Pts (-105 DK)
Domantas Sabonis Under 18.5 Pts (+100 FD)
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