These two teams have played only once this season, which resulted in a Magic win, but it was also the game where the Pelicans lost Brandon Ingram to a knee injury. I will not be expecting much of Jonas Valanciunas tonight as the Magic run a five-out offense, which surrounds the floor with shooters from positions one through five. This is like what the Celtics did the other day which resulted in a second half start from Larry Nance and a total of 18 minutes played from Valanciunas. He is simply too slow and flat footed to defend five-out offenses, which is why the Pelicans would rather play smaller with lengthy defenders.
This second half of the season, the Pelicans have relied heavily on their small ball philosophy and expect it to continue going into the playoffs. He’s played over 24 minutes only four times in his last twenty games. When playing 24 or less minutes he’s gone under this prop (Pts+Reb+Ast) in 28 of 43 games his season. I believe he’ll see somewhere around 20 minutes or less tonight, and in those games, he’s gone under this prop in 17 of 21 games. The Magic have been tough to rebound against all season, allowing the fewest rebounds per game to opponents and the 2nd fewest in the past 10 games. In his 18 minutes against the Magic, he had only 9 rebound chances and 4 field goal attempts. Magic plays a 1-2-2 zone defense that makes scoring in the restricted area tough unless you are a player who cuts to the basket from the corners or dunkers spot, which he does not really do much of as he relies on the post up game and being the roll man in pick & roll actions.
Looking on the other side of the ball, we see Paolo Banchero who finished this game with a triple double, carving up this defense. In the first half they focused on trying to trap Banchero, but he was making them pay with his great awareness and court vision. The Magic were 9 of 21 from three in the first half due to the traps being sent at Banchero. He shot 2 of 8 from the field in the first half overall, but he missed a lot of shots he typically makes. In the second half without Ingram playing, the Pelicans focused on switching, in which Banchero made them pay, as he scored at will, while also racking up 6 assists in that half. Herbert Jones was the primary defender on Franz Wagner in that game as well. I went to watch back film of the destruction Devin Booker just caused to the Pelicans, and from what I seen, they relied on switches as well. The Pelicans are typically very good at taking away the primary ball handler in the pick & roll, but they have struggled in defending it against guys that can pass well and do a great job of finishing at the rim, both of which Banchero has excelled at this season. In games with 30+ minutes with Franz Wagner, he’s gone over this prop (Pts+Ast) in 36 of 58 games. He has taken 15+ field goal attempts in 17 of his last 20 games. In games with 30+ minutes and 15+ field goal attempts with Wagner, he’s gone over this prop in 32 of 25 games. His usage on the road is even better where he is averaging 18 attempts and 23 points per game, both of which are better than his home games, so when we filter in away games on top of all this, he’s over in 16 of 22 games this season. Its very hard to defend Banchero as you don't want him to feast in the paint but you also just can't leave shooters open in a five-out offense, so because they were able to force more turnovers from help defense on switches, I believe they'll stick to that approach more so than blitzes.
Jonas Valaniunas Under 20.5 PRA (-125 DK)
Paolo Banchero Over 26.5 Pts+Ast (-115 DK)
These two teams have played only once this season, which resulted in a Magic win, but it was also the game where the Pelicans lost Brandon Ingram to a knee injury. I will not be expecting much of Jonas Valanciunas tonight as the Magic run a five-out offense, which surrounds the floor with shooters from positions one through five. This is like what the Celtics did the other day which resulted in a second half start from Larry Nance and a total of 18 minutes played from Valanciunas. He is simply too slow and flat footed to defend five-out offenses, which is why the Pelicans would rather play smaller with lengthy defenders.
This second half of the season, the Pelicans have relied heavily on their small ball philosophy and expect it to continue going into the playoffs. He’s played over 24 minutes only four times in his last twenty games. When playing 24 or less minutes he’s gone under this prop (Pts+Reb+Ast) in 28 of 43 games his season. I believe he’ll see somewhere around 20 minutes or less tonight, and in those games, he’s gone under this prop in 17 of 21 games. The Magic have been tough to rebound against all season, allowing the fewest rebounds per game to opponents and the 2nd fewest in the past 10 games. In his 18 minutes against the Magic, he had only 9 rebound chances and 4 field goal attempts. Magic plays a 1-2-2 zone defense that makes scoring in the restricted area tough unless you are a player who cuts to the basket from the corners or dunkers spot, which he does not really do much of as he relies on the post up game and being the roll man in pick & roll actions.
Looking on the other side of the ball, we see Paolo Banchero who finished this game with a triple double, carving up this defense. In the first half they focused on trying to trap Banchero, but he was making them pay with his great awareness and court vision. The Magic were 9 of 21 from three in the first half due to the traps being sent at Banchero. He shot 2 of 8 from the field in the first half overall, but he missed a lot of shots he typically makes. In the second half without Ingram playing, the Pelicans focused on switching, in which Banchero made them pay, as he scored at will, while also racking up 6 assists in that half. Herbert Jones was the primary defender on Franz Wagner in that game as well. I went to watch back film of the destruction Devin Booker just caused to the Pelicans, and from what I seen, they relied on switches as well. The Pelicans are typically very good at taking away the primary ball handler in the pick & roll, but they have struggled in defending it against guys that can pass well and do a great job of finishing at the rim, both of which Banchero has excelled at this season. In games with 30+ minutes with Franz Wagner, he’s gone over this prop (Pts+Ast) in 36 of 58 games. He has taken 15+ field goal attempts in 17 of his last 20 games. In games with 30+ minutes and 15+ field goal attempts with Wagner, he’s gone over this prop in 32 of 25 games. His usage on the road is even better where he is averaging 18 attempts and 23 points per game, both of which are better than his home games, so when we filter in away games on top of all this, he’s over in 16 of 22 games this season. Its very hard to defend Banchero as you don't want him to feast in the paint but you also just can't leave shooters open in a five-out offense, so because they were able to force more turnovers from help defense on switches, I believe they'll stick to that approach more so than blitzes.
Jonas Valaniunas Under 20.5 PRA (-125 DK)
Paolo Banchero Over 26.5 Pts+Ast (-115 DK)
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