Without Sengun, he’s performed well, but in the last three games he has not got the same usage. The difference between the first 9 games without Sengun and the last three is Cam Whitmore coming back. Whitmore has a team high 27.8% usage rate in the last three games which is the highest on the team, while Thompson is at 16.8% and averaging 8 attempts per game. In the previous nine games before this three-game stretch, Thompson had an 18.3% usage rate averaging 9.7 attempts per game, which includes a two-attempt game. In the games without Sengun while taking 9 or less field goal attempts, he’s gone under this prop in 5 of 6 games. Fast paced games that involve a lot of transition buckets is the environment he thrives in, but the Heat will be a problem for him, limiting shots at the rim, playing slow and allowing the third fewest fastbreak points since the all-star break. 27% of his points have come from in transition this season. Miami is allowing the fewest field goal attempts in the restricted area and that is where 71% of his attempts have come from in the past 12 games (since the Sengun injury). A team he has recently played against who defends the restricted area well is the Timberwolves where he shot 4 of 9 and scored 9 points and they also have the 4th best transition defense as well. The 1-2-2 zone defense is prone to giving up baskets to cutters, but the Heat also play a 2-3 zone which can help with that, which is the defense the Timberwolves primarily play.
The Heat like to force teams to shoot their way to a win, which can force Thompson off the court and put Jeff Green in his place in the second half of the game. With the Rockets small ball lineups and five out offense I expect this to be more of a shooters game, so guys like Brooks and Smith Jr. the player I think will be the guy to attack is no other than Smith Jr as he’s had 14, 14 and 17 attempts since Whitmore has came back, and with almost 50% of his attempts being catch & shoot sets up perfectly for this matchup with Heat allowing the 6th highest catch & shoot three frequency in the past 12 games. In all of his last three games he’s taken 7+ three-point attempts. When he has done this on the season, he’s gone over this prop in 11 of 15 games this season, and two of those misses were right at 14 points. Of players taking 7+ three-point attempts against the Heat since the all-star break, they’ve allowed a 27 of 41 hit rate for these players.
Amen Thompson Under 11.5 Pts (-113 FD)
Jabari Smith Jr Over 14.5 Pts (-111 FD)
Without Sengun, he’s performed well, but in the last three games he has not got the same usage. The difference between the first 9 games without Sengun and the last three is Cam Whitmore coming back. Whitmore has a team high 27.8% usage rate in the last three games which is the highest on the team, while Thompson is at 16.8% and averaging 8 attempts per game. In the previous nine games before this three-game stretch, Thompson had an 18.3% usage rate averaging 9.7 attempts per game, which includes a two-attempt game. In the games without Sengun while taking 9 or less field goal attempts, he’s gone under this prop in 5 of 6 games. Fast paced games that involve a lot of transition buckets is the environment he thrives in, but the Heat will be a problem for him, limiting shots at the rim, playing slow and allowing the third fewest fastbreak points since the all-star break. 27% of his points have come from in transition this season. Miami is allowing the fewest field goal attempts in the restricted area and that is where 71% of his attempts have come from in the past 12 games (since the Sengun injury). A team he has recently played against who defends the restricted area well is the Timberwolves where he shot 4 of 9 and scored 9 points and they also have the 4th best transition defense as well. The 1-2-2 zone defense is prone to giving up baskets to cutters, but the Heat also play a 2-3 zone which can help with that, which is the defense the Timberwolves primarily play.
The Heat like to force teams to shoot their way to a win, which can force Thompson off the court and put Jeff Green in his place in the second half of the game. With the Rockets small ball lineups and five out offense I expect this to be more of a shooters game, so guys like Brooks and Smith Jr. the player I think will be the guy to attack is no other than Smith Jr as he’s had 14, 14 and 17 attempts since Whitmore has came back, and with almost 50% of his attempts being catch & shoot sets up perfectly for this matchup with Heat allowing the 6th highest catch & shoot three frequency in the past 12 games. In all of his last three games he’s taken 7+ three-point attempts. When he has done this on the season, he’s gone over this prop in 11 of 15 games this season, and two of those misses were right at 14 points. Of players taking 7+ three-point attempts against the Heat since the all-star break, they’ve allowed a 27 of 41 hit rate for these players.
Amen Thompson Under 11.5 Pts (-113 FD)
Jabari Smith Jr Over 14.5 Pts (-111 FD)
I’m more than just an adorable Robot.
Unleash my AI mind and win!