Brice Sensabaugh Over 11.5 Pts (-110 DK)
Got bench starting out the second half last along with George and Hendricks, who are all young rookies. He ended up playing only 13 minutes total in that game, but it’s what Will Hardy does as he will hold everyone accountable as a good coach should. He ended up playing in the second half just like the others that were benched. But in the three games before this when there was no Collins, Markkanen and Clarkson, he played 27+ minutes in those three games, going over in 2 of 3, with the only miss being a Timberwolves game where they defend threes well. Now he gets the Warriors who defend the three horribly as of late, allowing the 3rd highest three-point frequency in the past 10 games along with the 6th most catch & shoot threes made as well. I’ve been saying it and will continue to say it on how the Warriors are just sloppy on rotations and continue to ball watch way too much and it has killed them giving up so many threes and backdoor cuts off the baseline. In his last 10 games, 61% of his attempts have come from threes. There is no Markkanen who would thrive in this situation, but now it’s the young rookies turn to take advantage as he’s averaging 6.8 three-point attempts per game in the last four games (which are without Markkanen) and it’s the highest average on the team in that span. In those four games he’s seen 8, 14, 14 and 4 (benched game) attempts. 8 to 14 is a good range if he does not get benched again today. He’s over in 6 of 10 games with 8+ field goal attempts this season and is also over in 6 of 12 games without Markkanen this season as well. Against the bottom 20 spot up defense without Markkanen, he’s over in 5 of 9.
Devin Booker Over 2.5 3PM (-108 FD)
Booker has absolutely torched the Pelicans both times this season for 52 points apiece. Looking at the film for both games, they’ve struggled to get over screens and the Suns like to run a lot of double screens to free him up, but even then the Pelicans will also try and switch but still playing drop coverage which doesn’t really make sense in my opinion but they strictly want to let him not get midrange jumpers off. They have even been going under screens, which means you are going to allow threes and not get dribble penetration into the paint area. The Pelicans already give up a ton of threes and even a lot of pullup threes. They are allowing the 3rd highest pullup three frequency and the 4th most made in the past 15 games. In both games he’s seen 11 and 16 three-point attempts. They are still sticking to the mindset of limiting midrange and paint points, relying on quick rotations and help defense. When he takes 7+ threes, with Beal and Durant playing, he’s gone over this prop in 11 of 16 games. I think they continue to allow him to shoot threes tonight and not let him torched them in the midrange, which is his preferred shot selection. Since the start of March, 25 of 32 guards with 6+ three-point attempts have gone over this prop. If he gets the volume and they continue to try and take away his midrange, he should soar tonight.
(Versus Pelicans this season)
Brice Sensabaugh Over 11.5 Pts (-110 DK)
Got bench starting out the second half last along with George and Hendricks, who are all young rookies. He ended up playing only 13 minutes total in that game, but it’s what Will Hardy does as he will hold everyone accountable as a good coach should. He ended up playing in the second half just like the others that were benched. But in the three games before this when there was no Collins, Markkanen and Clarkson, he played 27+ minutes in those three games, going over in 2 of 3, with the only miss being a Timberwolves game where they defend threes well. Now he gets the Warriors who defend the three horribly as of late, allowing the 3rd highest three-point frequency in the past 10 games along with the 6th most catch & shoot threes made as well. I’ve been saying it and will continue to say it on how the Warriors are just sloppy on rotations and continue to ball watch way too much and it has killed them giving up so many threes and backdoor cuts off the baseline. In his last 10 games, 61% of his attempts have come from threes. There is no Markkanen who would thrive in this situation, but now it’s the young rookies turn to take advantage as he’s averaging 6.8 three-point attempts per game in the last four games (which are without Markkanen) and it’s the highest average on the team in that span. In those four games he’s seen 8, 14, 14 and 4 (benched game) attempts. 8 to 14 is a good range if he does not get benched again today. He’s over in 6 of 10 games with 8+ field goal attempts this season and is also over in 6 of 12 games without Markkanen this season as well. Against the bottom 20 spot up defense without Markkanen, he’s over in 5 of 9.
Devin Booker Over 2.5 3PM (-108 FD)
Booker has absolutely torched the Pelicans both times this season for 52 points apiece. Looking at the film for both games, they’ve struggled to get over screens and the Suns like to run a lot of double screens to free him up, but even then the Pelicans will also try and switch but still playing drop coverage which doesn’t really make sense in my opinion but they strictly want to let him not get midrange jumpers off. They have even been going under screens, which means you are going to allow threes and not get dribble penetration into the paint area. The Pelicans already give up a ton of threes and even a lot of pullup threes. They are allowing the 3rd highest pullup three frequency and the 4th most made in the past 15 games. In both games he’s seen 11 and 16 three-point attempts. They are still sticking to the mindset of limiting midrange and paint points, relying on quick rotations and help defense. When he takes 7+ threes, with Beal and Durant playing, he’s gone over this prop in 11 of 16 games. I think they continue to allow him to shoot threes tonight and not let him torched them in the midrange, which is his preferred shot selection. Since the start of March, 25 of 32 guards with 6+ three-point attempts have gone over this prop. If he gets the volume and they continue to try and take away his midrange, he should soar tonight.
(Versus Pelicans this season)
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