Zion Williamson Under 24.5 Pts (-105 BET365)
The Lakers have made it tough for Williamson during the regular season series with games of 13, 26, 30, and 12 points. The key thing to note of those four games is how he’s only taken 13+ field goal attempts just once. This is a man whose game is very one dimensional only wanting to attack the rim, but it is difficult for him to bully the Lakers because all of their forwards are relatively big and with Anthony Davis always ready to help, he can’t just bully his way to the rim. Earning foul calls will also be difficult since the referees blow their whistles less in the playoffs. The help defense is going to be waiting for him a lot and guys like Murphy and McCollum will need to step up and knock down threes when the help defense arrives for Zion. The Pelicans simply can’t and won’t win with Valanciunas on the floor, which may leave lineups of Zion at center. The Pelicans more successful with their small ball lineups but with a bigger team like the Lakers presents a lot of challenges which will have to force them to shoot their way out of the game rather than the bread and butter of attacking the paint and midrange. The midrange would be a great spot to attack with a healthy Ingram as he poses the biggest mismatch with an uncontestable jumper, but he is simply still not healthy and looked sluggish last game. This is not the spot to have a Zion game but rather a shooters game, and on top of a gameplan centered around stopping him, others have better spot to attack for an over, but for tonight we are fading the athletic big.
Keon Ellis Over 9.5 Pts (-102 DK)
In an elimination game, the Kings and Warriors are going to rely on the players they trust, and for the Kings, one of those players is Ellis because since his insertion into the starting lineup, they’ve had the 3rd best defensive rating (since March 1st). He is one of those players that creates sparks on defense and he will be needed to defend Curry tonight, who is probably going to play around 40 minutes at least. They have been resting Curry and this is their time to unleash him in a win or go home situation. With Ellis being the primary defender for him most likely, he should see 30-40 minutes tonight as well. One thing the Warrirors are known for in the playoffs is sagging off non shooters and forcing them to hit shots. They want to protect the rim and they did this last year in their playoff series. Kings could not hit open threes and they lost. Ellis is going to be one of those players getting those looks tonight. Since March 1st with his insertion into the starting lineup, 67% of his attempts are from three, and hitting them at a 45% clip. Warriors have already been giving up a ton of threes this season and during this winning stretch in the past 12 games, they’ve allowed the 7th most catch & shoot three-point attempts and 8th most three-point attempts overall. In games of 30+ minutes for Ellis, since March 1st, he’s gone over this line in 5 of 6 games. He’s going to get the looks, it is just a matter of will he knock them down, and with him shooting 45% the past month and a half, I can see him knocking them down tonight. No Gary Payton tonight, who is typically the main defender on Fox and without him they’ll probably use Wiggins instead, but his speed is a problem and they’ll need some extra attention on him which should open up looks for shooter as well.
Steph Curry Over 5.5 Ast (+100 DK)
Curry has been torching the Kings all season for 41, 21, 29, and 33 points, but their last matchup was back in late January and a lot has changed since then for the Kings as their defense has gotten a lot better and they are missing two key players on top of that in Huerter and Monk. The Kings are going to be looking to blitz Curry as they’ll try and use a lot of screens to free him up, and off screens, the Kings love to blitz. This is going to open up a ton of passing lanes for open shooters and cutters which he can surely take advantage of. We all love him for his scoring ability but his vision and passing ability is still among the best in the league and he will surely need to show that off tonight to help his team win. In the last 9 games he’s played, he’s had an assists usage percentage of 29.6% or better in 8 of those games. They’ve had a new lineup with Klay and Trayce-Davis starting and Kuminga off the bench. In the two games Kuminga came back from injury, he had an assists usage rate of 30.8% and 47.1%, racking up 8 assists apiece on 13 and 11 potential assists. With the amount of attention and court time he’ll see tonight, his potentials should be above 15+ tonight.
Zion Williamson Under 24.5 Pts (-105 BET365)
The Lakers have made it tough for Williamson during the regular season series with games of 13, 26, 30, and 12 points. The key thing to note of those four games is how he’s only taken 13+ field goal attempts just once. This is a man whose game is very one dimensional only wanting to attack the rim, but it is difficult for him to bully the Lakers because all of their forwards are relatively big and with Anthony Davis always ready to help, he can’t just bully his way to the rim. Earning foul calls will also be difficult since the referees blow their whistles less in the playoffs. The help defense is going to be waiting for him a lot and guys like Murphy and McCollum will need to step up and knock down threes when the help defense arrives for Zion. The Pelicans simply can’t and won’t win with Valanciunas on the floor, which may leave lineups of Zion at center. The Pelicans more successful with their small ball lineups but with a bigger team like the Lakers presents a lot of challenges which will have to force them to shoot their way out of the game rather than the bread and butter of attacking the paint and midrange. The midrange would be a great spot to attack with a healthy Ingram as he poses the biggest mismatch with an uncontestable jumper, but he is simply still not healthy and looked sluggish last game. This is not the spot to have a Zion game but rather a shooters game, and on top of a gameplan centered around stopping him, others have better spot to attack for an over, but for tonight we are fading the athletic big.
Keon Ellis Over 9.5 Pts (-102 DK)
In an elimination game, the Kings and Warriors are going to rely on the players they trust, and for the Kings, one of those players is Ellis because since his insertion into the starting lineup, they’ve had the 3rd best defensive rating (since March 1st). He is one of those players that creates sparks on defense and he will be needed to defend Curry tonight, who is probably going to play around 40 minutes at least. They have been resting Curry and this is their time to unleash him in a win or go home situation. With Ellis being the primary defender for him most likely, he should see 30-40 minutes tonight as well. One thing the Warrirors are known for in the playoffs is sagging off non shooters and forcing them to hit shots. They want to protect the rim and they did this last year in their playoff series. Kings could not hit open threes and they lost. Ellis is going to be one of those players getting those looks tonight. Since March 1st with his insertion into the starting lineup, 67% of his attempts are from three, and hitting them at a 45% clip. Warriors have already been giving up a ton of threes this season and during this winning stretch in the past 12 games, they’ve allowed the 7th most catch & shoot three-point attempts and 8th most three-point attempts overall. In games of 30+ minutes for Ellis, since March 1st, he’s gone over this line in 5 of 6 games. He’s going to get the looks, it is just a matter of will he knock them down, and with him shooting 45% the past month and a half, I can see him knocking them down tonight. No Gary Payton tonight, who is typically the main defender on Fox and without him they’ll probably use Wiggins instead, but his speed is a problem and they’ll need some extra attention on him which should open up looks for shooter as well.
Steph Curry Over 5.5 Ast (+100 DK)
Curry has been torching the Kings all season for 41, 21, 29, and 33 points, but their last matchup was back in late January and a lot has changed since then for the Kings as their defense has gotten a lot better and they are missing two key players on top of that in Huerter and Monk. The Kings are going to be looking to blitz Curry as they’ll try and use a lot of screens to free him up, and off screens, the Kings love to blitz. This is going to open up a ton of passing lanes for open shooters and cutters which he can surely take advantage of. We all love him for his scoring ability but his vision and passing ability is still among the best in the league and he will surely need to show that off tonight to help his team win. In the last 9 games he’s played, he’s had an assists usage percentage of 29.6% or better in 8 of those games. They’ve had a new lineup with Klay and Trayce-Davis starting and Kuminga off the bench. In the two games Kuminga came back from injury, he had an assists usage rate of 30.8% and 47.1%, racking up 8 assists apiece on 13 and 11 potential assists. With the amount of attention and court time he’ll see tonight, his potentials should be above 15+ tonight.
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