Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 Pts (-114 FD)
With all the attention most likely going into stopping Embiid, I expect Maxey to be the X-Factor in helping his team beat the Heat tonight. The Heat have had a good pick & roll defense against ball handlers all season, but when it comes to Maxey, he makes them look average at best due to his speed. His speed creates such a mismatch in trying to defend him as he just blows by not only the defender of the ball handler but also the roll man help defender as well, who has mostly been Adebayo. Allowing him to get a head start downhill is always a recipe for disaster for any defense. With the Heat most likely going to be in their 2-3 zone, a lot of the last line of defense is going to be a small wing or guard, who he can easily finish over with his improved rim finishing ability this season. playing against a zone defense, a great way to attack it is catch & shoot threes and creating off the dribble, both of which he has done well on. This zone defense should force Embiid to be swarmed a lot when he catches around the elbow and high post, which should give shooters opportunities along with cutters. The shooting aspect of things here should give Maxey a lot of three-point opportunities tonight. This zone defense has also given Embiid a lot of fits when he tries to score over the last few seasons and someone like Maxey is going to need to step up and fill that void. In a must win situation, I expect Maxey to play about 40 minutes tonight. He’s played 35+ minutes in 8 of his last 10 games. In games with 35+ minutes with Embiid this season, he’s gone over this prop in 21 of 27 games.
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 Pts (+100 FD)
With Dosunmu and Caruso giving a lot of defensive attention to Young and Murray, it has been up to Bogdanovic to step up in these games, and he certainly has, scoring 22, 28, and 20 points. I expect him to have to step up again as there is no Jalen Johnson to help score either and attacking the Bulls with shooters has been the way all season. They will crowd the paint and give extra help to drivers, especially off the pick & roll. But with Young and Murray getting a ton of attention, we’ve seen Bogdanovic create off the dribble and attack the rim with the help of some inverted screens. They’ve relied on him to score in the past matchups and they’ll need to do so again as I expect Murray and Young to struggle some yet again. Bogdanovic is my X-Factor here for the Hawks tonight. In their latest matchup he played 34 minutes. With the lack of depth due to injuries and ineligible players being on two-way contracts, he should easily get 30+ minutes tonight. When he gets 30+ minutes with Young and Murray playing, he’s gone over this prop in 9 of 13 games, including 7 of 9 when you factor in Jalen Johnson not playing.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 14.5 Pts (-105 ESPN)
Ayo has dominated the Hawks in the regular season series scoring 19, 29 and 15 points, all while playing 35+ minutes. He is going to be needed on the defensive side of the ball to help defend Trae Young, who he’s limited to 4 of 9 shooting, 7 assists and 3 turnovers this season when matched up. He was seen getting shots up in pregame which signals towards him playing and he’s had about 10 days to heal and recover. He should continue to see 34+ minutes tonight unless another report comes out, but when he gets 34+ minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 18 of 31 games without Lavine. He’s going to take advantage of catch & shoot opportunities along with getting to the rim off drives. He’s shooting 50% from three in his games against the Hawks. On the season he is shooting 40% from three. The Hawks will probably try and cutting off DeRozan’s driving lanes along with sending some blitzes. When this happens it should open up three-point opportunities for the role players. On top of this his quickness will be tough to contain when he gets downhill, especially if Trae Young is the primary defender, which they’ve used to defend him mainly in the regular season series. Young is not a good defender and this should be a point of emphasis to attack tonight.
Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 Pts (-114 FD)
With all the attention most likely going into stopping Embiid, I expect Maxey to be the X-Factor in helping his team beat the Heat tonight. The Heat have had a good pick & roll defense against ball handlers all season, but when it comes to Maxey, he makes them look average at best due to his speed. His speed creates such a mismatch in trying to defend him as he just blows by not only the defender of the ball handler but also the roll man help defender as well, who has mostly been Adebayo. Allowing him to get a head start downhill is always a recipe for disaster for any defense. With the Heat most likely going to be in their 2-3 zone, a lot of the last line of defense is going to be a small wing or guard, who he can easily finish over with his improved rim finishing ability this season. playing against a zone defense, a great way to attack it is catch & shoot threes and creating off the dribble, both of which he has done well on. This zone defense should force Embiid to be swarmed a lot when he catches around the elbow and high post, which should give shooters opportunities along with cutters. The shooting aspect of things here should give Maxey a lot of three-point opportunities tonight. This zone defense has also given Embiid a lot of fits when he tries to score over the last few seasons and someone like Maxey is going to need to step up and fill that void. In a must win situation, I expect Maxey to play about 40 minutes tonight. He’s played 35+ minutes in 8 of his last 10 games. In games with 35+ minutes with Embiid this season, he’s gone over this prop in 21 of 27 games.
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 Pts (+100 FD)
With Dosunmu and Caruso giving a lot of defensive attention to Young and Murray, it has been up to Bogdanovic to step up in these games, and he certainly has, scoring 22, 28, and 20 points. I expect him to have to step up again as there is no Jalen Johnson to help score either and attacking the Bulls with shooters has been the way all season. They will crowd the paint and give extra help to drivers, especially off the pick & roll. But with Young and Murray getting a ton of attention, we’ve seen Bogdanovic create off the dribble and attack the rim with the help of some inverted screens. They’ve relied on him to score in the past matchups and they’ll need to do so again as I expect Murray and Young to struggle some yet again. Bogdanovic is my X-Factor here for the Hawks tonight. In their latest matchup he played 34 minutes. With the lack of depth due to injuries and ineligible players being on two-way contracts, he should easily get 30+ minutes tonight. When he gets 30+ minutes with Young and Murray playing, he’s gone over this prop in 9 of 13 games, including 7 of 9 when you factor in Jalen Johnson not playing.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 14.5 Pts (-105 ESPN)
Ayo has dominated the Hawks in the regular season series scoring 19, 29 and 15 points, all while playing 35+ minutes. He is going to be needed on the defensive side of the ball to help defend Trae Young, who he’s limited to 4 of 9 shooting, 7 assists and 3 turnovers this season when matched up. He was seen getting shots up in pregame which signals towards him playing and he’s had about 10 days to heal and recover. He should continue to see 34+ minutes tonight unless another report comes out, but when he gets 34+ minutes, he’s gone over this prop in 18 of 31 games without Lavine. He’s going to take advantage of catch & shoot opportunities along with getting to the rim off drives. He’s shooting 50% from three in his games against the Hawks. On the season he is shooting 40% from three. The Hawks will probably try and cutting off DeRozan’s driving lanes along with sending some blitzes. When this happens it should open up three-point opportunities for the role players. On top of this his quickness will be tough to contain when he gets downhill, especially if Trae Young is the primary defender, which they’ve used to defend him mainly in the regular season series. Young is not a good defender and this should be a point of emphasis to attack tonight.
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