Grayson Allen Under 11.5 Pts (-102 FD)
Timberwolves came with a great game plan of forcing the Suns to play Iso ball. The game plan was to allow Durant to go one on one but stopped everyone else. They closed out on shooters very well and is the reason Allen only had three attempts. The Suns only took 28 threes in Game 1 where they are averaging 32.6 on the season. They took Devin Booker away by putting Jaden McDaniels on him, where he defended him 31 possessions and forcing him to shoot 1 for 6 with zero assists and one turnover. There was not much help defense. The Suns looked like they were playing pickup ball out there which will never work in the playoffs. The close outs were very good on shooters as well. He is favored to go under three three-pointers made and when he does that playing 25+ minutes, he’s gone under this prop in 34 of 55 games this season.
Damian Lillard Under 29.5 Pts (-110 BET365)
Lillard had an explosive first half where he scored 35 points on 19 field goal attempts. The Pacers tried to overcommit by attempting to stop the three, and he would blow by for a layup. He was too quick for them to guard one on one. But in the second half, things turned around as they finally went on to trap and blitz him consistently, which they didn’t do at all in the first half. In the second half he shot 0 for 5 from the field. During the second half this allowed Khris Middleton to take over, scoring 15 points in that half. The Pacers outscored the Bucks 52-40 in the second half. I believe they will stick with trapping Lillard and being aggressive with him, forcing others to beat them. Lillard killed them in the pick and roll and expect the Pacers to blitz heavy there, especially at the top of the key, which is where 32% of his points have come from this season. They know the Pacers want to be physical with him, so the Bucks set screens at half court to free him up. They need McConnell to get more minutes as Nembhard struggled against Lillard, allowing him to shoot 5 of 6 from the field when matched up. The Pacers will continue to keep pressuring him almost the full length of the court. I see the Pacers executing pick & roll coverage much better this time around.
Grayson Allen Under 11.5 Pts (-102 FD)
Timberwolves came with a great game plan of forcing the Suns to play Iso ball. The game plan was to allow Durant to go one on one but stopped everyone else. They closed out on shooters very well and is the reason Allen only had three attempts. The Suns only took 28 threes in Game 1 where they are averaging 32.6 on the season. They took Devin Booker away by putting Jaden McDaniels on him, where he defended him 31 possessions and forcing him to shoot 1 for 6 with zero assists and one turnover. There was not much help defense. The Suns looked like they were playing pickup ball out there which will never work in the playoffs. The close outs were very good on shooters as well. He is favored to go under three three-pointers made and when he does that playing 25+ minutes, he’s gone under this prop in 34 of 55 games this season.
Damian Lillard Under 29.5 Pts (-110 BET365)
Lillard had an explosive first half where he scored 35 points on 19 field goal attempts. The Pacers tried to overcommit by attempting to stop the three, and he would blow by for a layup. He was too quick for them to guard one on one. But in the second half, things turned around as they finally went on to trap and blitz him consistently, which they didn’t do at all in the first half. In the second half he shot 0 for 5 from the field. During the second half this allowed Khris Middleton to take over, scoring 15 points in that half. The Pacers outscored the Bucks 52-40 in the second half. I believe they will stick with trapping Lillard and being aggressive with him, forcing others to beat them. Lillard killed them in the pick and roll and expect the Pacers to blitz heavy there, especially at the top of the key, which is where 32% of his points have come from this season. They know the Pacers want to be physical with him, so the Bucks set screens at half court to free him up. They need McConnell to get more minutes as Nembhard struggled against Lillard, allowing him to shoot 5 of 6 from the field when matched up. The Pacers will continue to keep pressuring him almost the full length of the court. I see the Pacers executing pick & roll coverage much better this time around.
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