Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 Pts (-110 DK)
Holmgren had seen a lot of pick and pop in Round 1 versus the Pelicans but don’t expect the same thing to happen in this series. The Mavericks have plenty of players who can comfortably switch and when they run the pick & roll, they have done a good job during the regular season series cutting off the passing lanes to the roll man. If they throw traps at Shai with the roll defender, they’ll rotate from the wings to Chet to try and stop that pick and pop. The Mavericks know how lethal Chet can be off the pick and pop and they don’t want to make the same mistakes the Pelicans did. So, putting someone like PJ Washington on him and Gafford on Giddey allows for Gafford to provide the help defense needed in the paint and PJ to use his athleticism and length to defend Chet. PJ probably has 20-30 pounds on Chet with about a 7-foot 3 wingspan while Chet has a 7-foot 6 wingspan. Chet matched up well in the last series, but this series is going to be all about how Jaylen Williams can impact the game as far as the Thunder side.
Josh Giddey Over 1.5 3PM (+164 FD)
Giddey is one of those guys you would rather sag off to defend others and that is what the Thunder have done during the regular season. The way I see the matchups going is putting Washington on Shai, Kyrie on Williams, Washington on Chet, and Gafford on Giddey. This is going to look to be a switch heavy game to force matchups and expect Giddey to try and set a lot of screens to force mismatches for Shai to attack. Without Kleber for Dallas, Gafford and Lively are going to have to step up and be ready for the switches. Dallas has been sending a lot of help to Shai this season and with him setting those screens or just even sagging off him to give help, they have left him open on numerous occasions throughout the season. The focus of the Mavericks is going to be cutting off those driving lanes and putting someone on Giddey such as Gafford or Lively (depending on rotations) will allow for them to sag off and help protect the paint. Many of the three-point attempts Giddey got in Round 1 were defenders giving help defense to stop Williams and Shai from getting to the paint with their dribble penetration, creating drive and kick opportunities. Giddey built a good three-point rhythm in Round 1 shooting 50% from deep on 4.5 attempts per game compared to the regular season of 34% on 3 attempts per game. His confidence is there and will be needed to help space the floor properly. If I see a big sample size of a player such as Giddey who isn’t one of the better three-point shooters, that is a player to sag off, like how Aaron Gordon will get a lot of good looks for the Nuggets. You can live with players like those guys knocking down shots, but you can’t live with stars torching you.
Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 Pts (-110 DK)
Holmgren had seen a lot of pick and pop in Round 1 versus the Pelicans but don’t expect the same thing to happen in this series. The Mavericks have plenty of players who can comfortably switch and when they run the pick & roll, they have done a good job during the regular season series cutting off the passing lanes to the roll man. If they throw traps at Shai with the roll defender, they’ll rotate from the wings to Chet to try and stop that pick and pop. The Mavericks know how lethal Chet can be off the pick and pop and they don’t want to make the same mistakes the Pelicans did. So, putting someone like PJ Washington on him and Gafford on Giddey allows for Gafford to provide the help defense needed in the paint and PJ to use his athleticism and length to defend Chet. PJ probably has 20-30 pounds on Chet with about a 7-foot 3 wingspan while Chet has a 7-foot 6 wingspan. Chet matched up well in the last series, but this series is going to be all about how Jaylen Williams can impact the game as far as the Thunder side.
Josh Giddey Over 1.5 3PM (+164 FD)
Giddey is one of those guys you would rather sag off to defend others and that is what the Thunder have done during the regular season. The way I see the matchups going is putting Washington on Shai, Kyrie on Williams, Washington on Chet, and Gafford on Giddey. This is going to look to be a switch heavy game to force matchups and expect Giddey to try and set a lot of screens to force mismatches for Shai to attack. Without Kleber for Dallas, Gafford and Lively are going to have to step up and be ready for the switches. Dallas has been sending a lot of help to Shai this season and with him setting those screens or just even sagging off him to give help, they have left him open on numerous occasions throughout the season. The focus of the Mavericks is going to be cutting off those driving lanes and putting someone on Giddey such as Gafford or Lively (depending on rotations) will allow for them to sag off and help protect the paint. Many of the three-point attempts Giddey got in Round 1 were defenders giving help defense to stop Williams and Shai from getting to the paint with their dribble penetration, creating drive and kick opportunities. Giddey built a good three-point rhythm in Round 1 shooting 50% from deep on 4.5 attempts per game compared to the regular season of 34% on 3 attempts per game. His confidence is there and will be needed to help space the floor properly. If I see a big sample size of a player such as Giddey who isn’t one of the better three-point shooters, that is a player to sag off, like how Aaron Gordon will get a lot of good looks for the Nuggets. You can live with players like those guys knocking down shots, but you can’t live with stars torching you.
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