Pick #2: Al Horford u6.5 Rebounds (-125 bet365)

Betting on NBA: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics in NBA Finals Game 2

As the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics prepare to clash in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday, bettors have a variety of intriguing options to consider. One prop bet that stands out is wagering on Al Horford to have under 6.5 rebounds. Here’s a detailed breakdown of why this bet looks promising.

Al Horford’s role in the Celtics’ lineup has evolved, particularly in the context of their defensive strategies against the Mavericks. In the first game of the series, Horford managed to grab 7 rebounds. However, a closer look reveals that 2 of those were offensive rebounds and 1 came off a missed free throw. This makes his total less impressive considering he had 11 rebound chances overall.

One significant factor impacting Horford’s rebound numbers is his defensive assignment. Horford was primarily tasked with guarding Luka Doncic, frequently switching onto him during ball screens. This assignment indicates that Horford's primary focus is on defending rather than rebounding. In Game 1, Horford switched onto Doncic 15 times, showcasing the Celtics’ strategy to keep him engaged on the perimeter rather than under the basket.

Furthermore, the Celtics appear comfortable with Horford handling Doncic in single coverage. This strategy likely reduces Horford’s involvement in securing defensive rebounds, as he is more often positioned away from the basket. With Doncic being a significant offensive threat, Horford’s defensive responsibilities are prioritized over crashing the boards.

Another key aspect to consider is the potential increase in minutes for Kristaps Porzingis in Game 2. If Porzingis sees more playing time, it could further limit Horford’s rebound opportunities. Porzingis is a strong presence in the paint and can command rebounds, thereby reducing the number available to Horford. This dynamic makes it even more challenging for Horford to accumulate rebounds.

Additionally, the Mavericks are expected to shoot better in Game 2, which could lead to fewer rebounding opportunities overall. Improved shooting from Dallas would naturally decrease the number of missed shots and, consequently, the number of rebounds available. Time of possession also plays a crucial role; if Dallas controls the ball more effectively, the Celtics might find fewer chances to rebound on the defensive end.

In conclusion, several factors make betting on Al Horford to have under 6.5 rebounds a strategic choice for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. Horford’s defensive assignments, the anticipated increase in Porzingis’ minutes, and the expected shooting improvement from the Mavericks all contribute to the likelihood of Horford falling short of the 6.5 rebounds mark. This prop bet is supported by a comprehensive analysis of game dynamics and player roles, making it a compelling option for bettors. Enjoy the game and best of luck with your bets!