I want to first give a big round of applause to jlazzy92 on his well deserved LIIC victory, and the first to win a coveted crown in Discord for going 7-0 last week. In addition, MmmmmmmmmPizza, 7up3r, and Opionic all deserve a big shout out for going 6-1 and giving our Top 4 a combined 25-3 record. Unbelievable. This has me wondering what I need to do to gain an edge this week. Then this morning, I realized the answer was staring me in the face. It's been a while since I got a 🐐, but I have 4 of them and for a reason. Pine.
I've been playing with a number of different things, from Team Props to Cricket Props to NFL yardage props, but I think it's time to get back to what worked from the start. Pine-Sports. This week, Predict is going to decide all of my picks. I am only going to select games where my Model Probabilities are greater than the implied odds percentages, and I assume this will lead to a few underdog picks when all of the 'favorite' teams have betting odds below the -200 threshold. Can Pine Predict win the week? Or even match the efforts of jlazzy92 last week and win a coveted crown? It all starts tonight with the NHL Matchup between the St. Louis Blues and the Arizona Coyotes.
With my first pick of the week, based off of my Predict Model for NHL Spread which is currently 2nd on Pine Sports at a 64.5% score, I am choosing the Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-180). Here are all of my model's predictions for tonight:
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The line for Arizona used in predictions was a moneyline of -190 and implied odds of 65%, but that line has since moved to -180 for me (64%) and my model is putting it at 69% which would normally be a betting line of -225, so right off the bat we are gaining some value there. Let's actually look at how these teams have done so far.
The Coyotes have played 2 games already this season, and both of them were on the road. They started the season with a brutal loss in Columbus to a score of 8-2, and followed that up with a shootout loss in Buffalo for a final of 2-1. This will be their first home game of the season and I expect they'll be anxious to get things on track.
The Blues have only played 1 game thus far, and against my local Avs team. They beat us, comfortably, BUT we were without Mackinnon due to a positive Covid test and without Landeskog due to a rightfully received 2-game suspension dished out by the NHL Player Safety board.
Goals For and Against per Game last season
STL outscored Arizona last season by 0.22 goals per game, not much. From a defensive side, they are equals with both teams allowing an average of 3.09 goals per game (these averages are a combination of even strength, power play, and shorthanded goals). That is a great stat to have in favor of a +1.5 line (for either team).
Goals For Comparison Between Arizona | Home and St. Louis | Visitor
At home last season, Arizona's offensive production actually fell below their season averages with a total goals for of 2.58 per game while allowing 2.96 per game. On the road last year, the Blues averaged 2.84 goals for per game but a much higher 3.13 goals against.
Based off of last season's numbers, a 3-2 final score in favor of St. Louis seems a reasonable enough guess. (Now that I'm looking, that scoreline turns out to be the favorite at +900, with 3-2 in favor of Arizona coming 2nd at +1100). I could also see 4-3 in OT or shootout being a likely outcome as well. Either way, with those numbers and the Predict Probablities, I am more than comfortable starting my week with Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-180).
BOL!
I want to first give a big round of applause to jlazzy92 on his well deserved LIIC victory, and the first to win a coveted crown in Discord for going 7-0 last week. In addition, MmmmmmmmmPizza, 7up3r, and Opionic all deserve a big shout out for going 6-1 and giving our Top 4 a combined 25-3 record. Unbelievable. This has me wondering what I need to do to gain an edge this week. Then this morning, I realized the answer was staring me in the face. It's been a while since I got a 🐐, but I have 4 of them and for a reason. Pine.
I've been playing with a number of different things, from Team Props to Cricket Props to NFL yardage props, but I think it's time to get back to what worked from the start. Pine-Sports. This week, Predict is going to decide all of my picks. I am only going to select games where my Model Probabilities are greater than the implied odds percentages, and I assume this will lead to a few underdog picks when all of the 'favorite' teams have betting odds below the -200 threshold. Can Pine Predict win the week? Or even match the efforts of jlazzy92 last week and win a coveted crown? It all starts tonight with the NHL Matchup between the St. Louis Blues and the Arizona Coyotes.
With my first pick of the week, based off of my Predict Model for NHL Spread which is currently 2nd on Pine Sports at a 64.5% score, I am choosing the Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-180). Here are all of my model's predictions for tonight:
The line for Arizona used in predictions was a moneyline of -190 and implied odds of 65%, but that line has since moved to -180 for me (64%) and my model is putting it at 69% which would normally be a betting line of -225, so right off the bat we are gaining some value there. Let's actually look at how these teams have done so far.
The Coyotes have played 2 games already this season, and both of them were on the road. They started the season with a brutal loss in Columbus to a score of 8-2, and followed that up with a shootout loss in Buffalo for a final of 2-1. This will be their first home game of the season and I expect they'll be anxious to get things on track.
The Blues have only played 1 game thus far, and against my local Avs team. They beat us, comfortably, BUT we were without Mackinnon due to a positive Covid test and without Landeskog due to a rightfully received 2-game suspension dished out by the NHL Player Safety board.
Goals For and Against per Game last season
STL outscored Arizona last season by 0.22 goals per game, not much. From a defensive side, they are equals with both teams allowing an average of 3.09 goals per game (these averages are a combination of even strength, power play, and shorthanded goals). That is a great stat to have in favor of a +1.5 line (for either team).
Goals For Comparison Between Arizona | Home and St. Louis | Visitor
At home last season, Arizona's offensive production actually fell below their season averages with a total goals for of 2.58 per game while allowing 2.96 per game. On the road last year, the Blues averaged 2.84 goals for per game but a much higher 3.13 goals against.
Based off of last season's numbers, a 3-2 final score in favor of St. Louis seems a reasonable enough guess. (Now that I'm looking, that scoreline turns out to be the favorite at +900, with 3-2 in favor of Arizona coming 2nd at +1100). I could also see 4-3 in OT or shootout being a likely outcome as well. Either way, with those numbers and the Predict Probablities, I am more than comfortable starting my week with Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-180).
BOL!
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