If you're betting on any NBA games tonight you'll want to read this first as I'm going to outline where you can get free, yes free, odds from the sportsbooks based on my Predict model.
There's several aspects to sports betting. The first one -- and this is going to sound obvious -- is to try to make the bet that is going to win. Almost all sports bettors try to follow this principle. But there's a second principle that is equally as important as picking the winning bet, and I'm going to explain it briefly for you below. It's called finding value, or the edge.
If you know where I'm going with this then skip ahead, otherwise this is worth reading. I'm imagining everyone reading this has been inside a casino and has likely played a table game before, Blackjack, Craps, Roulette, etc. Even if you haven't you still understand the general rules of those games. So let's take Roulette as our example. One of the most popular bets in Roulette is betting on a number. If you bet on number 11, for example, and that hits, the house will pay you 36x your bet, or 36 to 1. But they are stealing odds from you when they do this. The modern game of Roulette has 38 numbers on it, it has the numbers 1 through 36 but it also has the numbers 0 and 00. Your true odds of hitting a single number in Roulette is 1 in 38 (not 1 in 36). As a percentage, this means that you have a 2.63% chance of hitting a number in Roulette but you are being paid as if the chances are 2.8% -- you are being paid less than your true odds. This might seem like a marginal difference -- 0.15% house edge per spin -- but it accounts for 5.5% of the total payout, which means statistically, the house is taking 5.5% of your money risk free each time you bet on a single number in Roulette.
The same concept applies to sports betting. You don't want the sportsbooks to be stealing odds from you. So if you're being offered a ML of -110, for example, it means the sportsbook is pricing that bet as if it was a 52.4% probable event -- the conversion from American Odds of -110 is 52.4%. But you're likely making that bet on what the sportsbooks think is a coin toss, i.e., a 50% probable event, and in turn they are taking away some of your odds, which we call the vig, or the fee they collect.
But what if you could identify bets where the sportsbooks were paying you more, in fact, way more than they should based on the event. When this differential between the chances of the event and the payout goes in favor of the player, we can say that a bet has "value" or that we've found an "edge." This even works in situations where the bet may be considered speculative -- i.e., it's a long shot but the payout could be huge. For example, lets say you bet whether a pro golfer will make a hole in one. The true odds of that happening might be, and I'm just guessing here, 1 in 10,000. That means that for every $1 you bet you should get back $10,000 if the golfer makes the hole in one. But what if a sportsbook was willing to pay you as if the chances were 1 in 20,000 or even 1 in 100,000. This would mean that there's an edge or "value" in making the bet because in 10,000 tries, the golfer should make that hole in one but you're getting paid as if that event was much much less likely. In essence, you're being overpaid and when you're betting on sports you want to set-up bets that overpay you. Like the house running the Roulette game, if you can overpay yourself each turn of that wheel you are nearly guaranteeing yourself profits.
Now to tonight's action. My Predict NBA Winner model, called the Alpha Model has a 66.92% accuracy score, which is #1 on Pine. I've gone through tonight's games and I've identified value bets, i.e., free odds, based on what my Predict model says will happen and based on how much DraftKings is paying on those bets. Below you'll find the games I've identified, what bet to take, and how much free odds you're getting. Leave me a comment if you have questions, and enjoy!
Chicago v. Detroit: Chicago ML (-210) -- 20.7% edge
Orlando v. San Antonio: Orlando (195) -- 17.5% edge
Washington v. Toronto: Washington (120) -- 15.6% edge
Philadelphia v. New Orleans: Philadelphia (-155) -- 14.5% edge
Indiana v. Charlotte: Indiana (105) -- 12.6% edge
Boston v. New York: New York (-130) -- 9.5% edge
Oklahoma City v. Utah: Utah (-850) -- 4.7% edge
If you're betting on any NBA games tonight you'll want to read this first as I'm going to outline where you can get free, yes free, odds from the sportsbooks based on my Predict model.
There's several aspects to sports betting. The first one -- and this is going to sound obvious -- is to try to make the bet that is going to win. Almost all sports bettors try to follow this principle. But there's a second principle that is equally as important as picking the winning bet, and I'm going to explain it briefly for you below. It's called finding value, or the edge.
If you know where I'm going with this then skip ahead, otherwise this is worth reading. I'm imagining everyone reading this has been inside a casino and has likely played a table game before, Blackjack, Craps, Roulette, etc. Even if you haven't you still understand the general rules of those games. So let's take Roulette as our example. One of the most popular bets in Roulette is betting on a number. If you bet on number 11, for example, and that hits, the house will pay you 36x your bet, or 36 to 1. But they are stealing odds from you when they do this. The modern game of Roulette has 38 numbers on it, it has the numbers 1 through 36 but it also has the numbers 0 and 00. Your true odds of hitting a single number in Roulette is 1 in 38 (not 1 in 36). As a percentage, this means that you have a 2.63% chance of hitting a number in Roulette but you are being paid as if the chances are 2.8% -- you are being paid less than your true odds. This might seem like a marginal difference -- 0.15% house edge per spin -- but it accounts for 5.5% of the total payout, which means statistically, the house is taking 5.5% of your money risk free each time you bet on a single number in Roulette.
The same concept applies to sports betting. You don't want the sportsbooks to be stealing odds from you. So if you're being offered a ML of -110, for example, it means the sportsbook is pricing that bet as if it was a 52.4% probable event -- the conversion from American Odds of -110 is 52.4%. But you're likely making that bet on what the sportsbooks think is a coin toss, i.e., a 50% probable event, and in turn they are taking away some of your odds, which we call the vig, or the fee they collect.
But what if you could identify bets where the sportsbooks were paying you more, in fact, way more than they should based on the event. When this differential between the chances of the event and the payout goes in favor of the player, we can say that a bet has "value" or that we've found an "edge." This even works in situations where the bet may be considered speculative -- i.e., it's a long shot but the payout could be huge. For example, lets say you bet whether a pro golfer will make a hole in one. The true odds of that happening might be, and I'm just guessing here, 1 in 10,000. That means that for every $1 you bet you should get back $10,000 if the golfer makes the hole in one. But what if a sportsbook was willing to pay you as if the chances were 1 in 20,000 or even 1 in 100,000. This would mean that there's an edge or "value" in making the bet because in 10,000 tries, the golfer should make that hole in one but you're getting paid as if that event was much much less likely. In essence, you're being overpaid and when you're betting on sports you want to set-up bets that overpay you. Like the house running the Roulette game, if you can overpay yourself each turn of that wheel you are nearly guaranteeing yourself profits.
Now to tonight's action. My Predict NBA Winner model, called the Alpha Model has a 66.92% accuracy score, which is #1 on Pine. I've gone through tonight's games and I've identified value bets, i.e., free odds, based on what my Predict model says will happen and based on how much DraftKings is paying on those bets. Below you'll find the games I've identified, what bet to take, and how much free odds you're getting. Leave me a comment if you have questions, and enjoy!
Chicago v. Detroit: Chicago ML (-210) -- 20.7% edge
Orlando v. San Antonio: Orlando (195) -- 17.5% edge
Washington v. Toronto: Washington (120) -- 15.6% edge
Philadelphia v. New Orleans: Philadelphia (-155) -- 14.5% edge
Indiana v. Charlotte: Indiana (105) -- 12.6% edge
Boston v. New York: New York (-130) -- 9.5% edge
Oklahoma City v. Utah: Utah (-850) -- 4.7% edge
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