Last night the Milwaukee Bucks reminded us why they are the Champions. Giannis was phenomenal, and thanks to @FearTheJOD I added that Giannis Threes prop to my SGP with Milwaukee ML and Giannis Over 10.5 Rebounds. He almost hit the rebound over in the first quarter. Nice little +190 pickup and 1-1 in the Lock it in Challenge.
Once again, we're letting the model do the work this week, and I spent some time last night comparing the true scores against test data for different probability ranges of my different Moneyline models. Deciding to stick with NBA again tonight as that seems like my most reliable model when it comes to probabilities reflecting actual outcomes in test data. Here are today's predictions:
As usual I am looking for differences in value to start. Take Washington out, because with no Russell Westbrook these probabilities will likely be late to catch up to his absence. Despite a 7% jump in value, take Orlando out, I have no idea what those two teams look like this season. There really isn't a lot else to offer in terms of added value when comparing our probablities to implied odds besides Indiana and frankly I'm all aboard that train. My LIIC 16 - Pick 3 is Indiana Pacers ML (+105).
A 6% jump from implied odds is not too shabby and my model is running at about 57% correct predictions on test data for probabilities between 50-60%. There are only 4 predictions today in that range, and I think Washington is a loser and again have no idea about ORL/SA so statistically that leaves Indiana and NY as the two winners. Now I know I'm doing model picks, but let's just look at some Pacer Players. Caris LeVert is out and that may leave room for opportunity on some other guys. Here is Pacer Minutes/Points averages last season followed by Minutes/Points averages in games without LeVert. LeVert was out for a large part of the season last year, missing from January 13th to March 12th.
Season Averages
Averages in Games without LeVert
Holiday averaged an extra 1.2 points per game, Turner an extra half a point, but Oshae Brissett looks to be the primary benefactor of LeVert's absence, jumping from 11.4 points per game in 25 minutes to 17.3 points per game in 30 minutes. This is really surprising to me given that he is a Center. It's important to look further at something like this, because after doing so, Brissett had zero games played during the long spell that LeVert was out. Caris had two games later in the season that he missed and those two games happened to be strong performances by Brissett but we cannot rely on these numbers in my opinion for Oshae. Frankly, I don't see much to offer here compared to the lines set by Draft Kings. Everything appears to be pretty spot on in my opinion.
Last night the Milwaukee Bucks reminded us why they are the Champions. Giannis was phenomenal, and thanks to @FearTheJOD I added that Giannis Threes prop to my SGP with Milwaukee ML and Giannis Over 10.5 Rebounds. He almost hit the rebound over in the first quarter. Nice little +190 pickup and 1-1 in the Lock it in Challenge.
Once again, we're letting the model do the work this week, and I spent some time last night comparing the true scores against test data for different probability ranges of my different Moneyline models. Deciding to stick with NBA again tonight as that seems like my most reliable model when it comes to probabilities reflecting actual outcomes in test data. Here are today's predictions:
As usual I am looking for differences in value to start. Take Washington out, because with no Russell Westbrook these probabilities will likely be late to catch up to his absence. Despite a 7% jump in value, take Orlando out, I have no idea what those two teams look like this season. There really isn't a lot else to offer in terms of added value when comparing our probablities to implied odds besides Indiana and frankly I'm all aboard that train. My LIIC 16 - Pick 3 is Indiana Pacers ML (+105).
A 6% jump from implied odds is not too shabby and my model is running at about 57% correct predictions on test data for probabilities between 50-60%. There are only 4 predictions today in that range, and I think Washington is a loser and again have no idea about ORL/SA so statistically that leaves Indiana and NY as the two winners. Now I know I'm doing model picks, but let's just look at some Pacer Players. Caris LeVert is out and that may leave room for opportunity on some other guys. Here is Pacer Minutes/Points averages last season followed by Minutes/Points averages in games without LeVert. LeVert was out for a large part of the season last year, missing from January 13th to March 12th.
Season Averages
Averages in Games without LeVert
Holiday averaged an extra 1.2 points per game, Turner an extra half a point, but Oshae Brissett looks to be the primary benefactor of LeVert's absence, jumping from 11.4 points per game in 25 minutes to 17.3 points per game in 30 minutes. This is really surprising to me given that he is a Center. It's important to look further at something like this, because after doing so, Brissett had zero games played during the long spell that LeVert was out. Caris had two games later in the season that he missed and those two games happened to be strong performances by Brissett but we cannot rely on these numbers in my opinion for Oshae. Frankly, I don't see much to offer here compared to the lines set by Draft Kings. Everything appears to be pretty spot on in my opinion.
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